Memorial Tournament 2026 Betting Preview – Four Picks for Muirfield Village

The Memorial Tournament returns to Muirfield Village Golf Club this week – a Jack Nicklaus design that rewards precision iron play and consistency on greens. Scottie Scheffler is chasing a third straight title at his favourite venue, but we are looking beyond the obvious for value in a $20 million signature event.

Muirfield Village is a par 72 stretching 7,569 yards with Bentgrass greens and fairways. It plays like a second-shot course: historically, top-10 finishers gain an average of +0.86 strokes per round on approach, +0.68 putting, and +0.45 off the tee. You need to hit quality irons into demanding pin positions and hole your fair share on slick, true surfaces. Bombers without control get chewed up here.

Who is trending right now?

Si Woo Kim is the hottest player in this week’s field by a distance. His SG total over the last eight rounds sits at +2.71 per round – a swing of +2.73 compared to his prior eight. He ranks 2nd on Tour for birdies per round (5.13) over his last 16 rounds and is gaining strokes across every category. Ludvig Aberg is another one running hot – SG total of +1.95 per round over his last 16 – and the Statz model flags him as the top value pick at 14/1 with a +2.0% edge over the market.

Scottie Scheffler leads the model at 17.5% win probability but is 16/5 with bet365. The market has him tighter than the model thinks he should be. He won here at -10 last year and -8 in 2024. Brilliant player, wrong price.

Si Woo Kim – 20/1 EW

Kim is playing the best golf of his 2026 season and the Statz model has taken notice – he ranks 7th in the composite projections with a 3.7% win probability and 28.2% top-10 chance. That SG mover delta of +2.73 is the fourth-largest on Tour right now, and crucially he is gaining strokes around the green (rank 12 on Tour, +0.53 per round) where Muirfield Village punishes anyone who misses greens in regulation.

His recent form reads 2nd at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, then 4th at the Cadillac Championship, and 3rd at the RBC Heritage before that. Three top-4 finishes in his last five starts is outstanding consistency. At 20/1, the market has him 7th in the betting – exactly where the model has him. But with form this hot, he could easily outperform his rating.

Sepp Straka – 50/1 EW

Straka is the play you make when the model screams course fit. His course fit score of 0.967 is the second-highest in the entire field behind only Akshay Bhatia (0.995). That is not a coincidence – Straka finished T3 here last year with a total of 283 and his SG profile matches what Muirfield Village demands almost perfectly.

His L24 approach numbers are elite: +0.63 SG per round, which is exactly the skill this course rewards most. He sits 9 places higher in the Statz model (rank 12) than his market position (rank 21), and at 50/1 you are getting 23.9% top-10 probability for a player the bookmakers have as a 2.0% win chance. Straka does his best work on courses that test precision, and Muirfield Village is exactly that.

Matt Fitzpatrick – 20/1 EW

Fitzpatrick slots in at rank 6 in the model composite with a 5.1% win probability and 31.1% top-10 chance. His course fit score (0.691) and course setup score (a perfect 1.0) tell you everything – the Bentgrass setup at Muirfield Village is built for a player with his iron-play pedigree.

He is gaining +1.83 strokes per round over his last 16 rounds (rank 5 in the field) and has a well-rounded SG profile with solid contributions in every category. Fitzpatrick is a US Open champion who has consistently performed on courses that demand precision over power. At 20/1 with bet365, he matches the model’s assessment but has more upside if his putter gets warm on these Bentgrass greens.

Longshot: Mac Meissner – 110/1 EW

Meissner is the deepest value play on the board this week. The Statz model has him ranked 23rd in the composite projections, but bet365 has him 42nd in the market – a 19-place gap that suggests serious mispricing. His course fit score of 0.773 is well above average for this field.

The numbers backing the case are striking: SG total of +1.69 per round over the last 16 rounds (rank 10 on Tour), SG putting rank 7 on Tour (+0.99 per round), and SG around the green rank 13 (+0.52). That is a player who excels in the two areas Muirfield Village tests hardest after approach play. At 110/1 with a 16.5% top-10 probability in the model, he represents significant each-way value.

Picks summary

• Si Woo Kim – 20/1 EW (hottest form in the field, 28.2% top 10)
• Sepp Straka – 50/1 EW (0.967 course fit, T3 last year, elite approach)
• Matt Fitzpatrick – 20/1 EW (rank 6 composite, perfect course setup score)
• Mac Meissner – 110/1 EW (longshot – SG putting rank 7, 19-place model vs market gap)

Each-way terms: 1/4 odds, 5 places (bet365).