Truist Championship 2026 Betting Preview – Three Picks for Quail Hollow
Quail Hollow Club hosts the Truist Championship this week – a $20 million purse, 7,538 yards of Charlotte parkland, and Bermuda greens that will separate the elite putters from the rest. The field is strong. The scoring will be low.
What Does It Take to Win at Quail Hollow?
The course profile data on Statz is clear. Putting is the dominant demand at Quail Hollow – the model weights it at 46% of the total score, with approach at 34%. Off the tee barely registers at 15%. This is not a bomber’s course.
Bermuda greens in Charlotte in May. Grain is a factor. Ball-strikers who can read and roll on the Bermuda surface are the profile. Players who gain strokes approaching and then close it out on the greens – that is the blueprint here. The model projects a winning score of -16, with the cut falling around -2.
Who Is in Form Right Now?
The Statz trending data over the last 16 rounds in this week’s field is worth reading closely before placing a bet.
Xander Schauffele is fifth in the field in SG total over the last 16 rounds at +1.68 per round, with +0.93 SG approach per round – seventh in the field. Akshay Bhatia sits sixth overall at +1.63 SG per round and leads the entire field in SG putting at +1.30 per round. Sepp Straka – last year’s champion here – is logging +0.94 SG total per round with +0.47 SG putting, steady on a course he knows how to win on.
Patrick Cantlay has posted finishes of 7th, 12th and 8th in his last three starts and arrives with course form of T21, T29 and 4th at Quail Hollow. That T4 in particular signals a player who understands this layout. The model has him ninth overall at 2.9% win probability.
Selection 1 – Xander Schauffele (9/1)
Xander Schauffele is third in the Statz model at 6.7% win probability and 59.2% top-5 chance. His recent form scores 69.7% – strong – and his approach game is firing at +0.93 SG per round over the last 16 rounds, seventh in the field.
His putting is in positive territory at +0.28 SG per round, and the model gives him an 88.1% course setup score – one of the highest in the field. At 9/1 with bet365, Schauffele sits behind only McIlroy in the market but the data backs him at this price. He is in excellent ball-striking form and has the putting to compete on Bermuda. He is the anchor pick this week.
Selection 2 – Akshay Bhatia (56/1)
Akshay Bhatia is ranked 11th by the Statz model at 2.6% win probability, but 56/1 with bet365 represents serious each-way value when you look at the underlying numbers.
He has the highest course fit score in the entire field at 93.3% – no other player in the draw matches his game profile to what Quail Hollow has historically demanded. He also leads every player in the field in SG putting over the last 16 rounds at +1.30 per round. On Bermuda greens where putting is worth 46% of the winning formula, that combination of elite course fit and elite current putting is precisely the each-way profile you want at a big price.
Selection 3 – Sepp Straka (41/1)
Sepp Straka won this tournament in 2025 and comes back to Charlotte with the best course history score in the field at 71.2% and an 84.6% course fit rating – second only to Bhatia. The defending champion knows exactly how to navigate Quail Hollow.
His recent form score of 36.1% drags down his overall model ranking to fifth, but dig into the numbers and he is logging +0.94 SG total per round and +0.47 SG putting over the last 16 rounds. Steady, positive putting on Bermuda – and he has been here before and won. At 41/1, the course history and fit data make Straka a clear each-way play.
Longshot – Patrick Cantlay (30/1)
Patrick Cantlay is ninth in the Statz model at 2.9% win probability, priced at 30/1 with bet365. His recent tournament form is the story – finishes of 7th, 12th and 8th in his last three starts show a player firmly in the mix week after week. His Quail Hollow record also carries weight: T21, T29 and a fourth place, with that T4 demonstrating he can genuinely contend on this layout.
His base skill score of 69.7% and course history of 69.3% are both solid. Putting has been the concern recently but form can be streaky, and his results suggest the overall game is in good shape. At 30/1 with consistent form and a proven course record, Cantlay is the longshot value pick this week.
Truist Championship Picks
- Xander Schauffele – 9/1 – EW
- Akshay Bhatia – 56/1 – EW
- Sepp Straka – 41/1 – EW
- Patrick Cantlay – 30/1 – EW (longshot)
Full projections and course data at statz.ai/golf/tournaments/24/truist-championship. Player profiles: Xander Schauffele – Akshay Bhatia – Sepp Straka – Patrick Cantlay.
EW terms: 1/4 odds, 5 places, bet365