Cadillac Championship 2026 Betting Preview – Three Picks as the Blue Monster Returns

The Blue Monster is back. Trump National Doral returns to the PGA Tour schedule for the first time in a decade this week, hosting the Cadillac Championship from April 30 to May 3 with a $20 million purse on the line. The last PGA Tour event here was the 2016 WGC Cadillac Championship – won by Adam Scott, who is in the field again this week.

The Blue Monster plays par 72 at 7,739 yards. Tifeagle Bermudagrass greens, Bermuda fairways and rough, stimp at 11-11.5ft. Dick Wilson designed the original; Gil Hanse renovated in 2014. There are 11 holes with water hazards in play and 99 sand bunkers. This is not a birdie-fest. When the Florida wind gets up, it turns technical fast. Scott shot -12 to win in 2016. Keep an eye on the forecast.

Because this course has been off the PGA Tour for 10 years, there is no event form data to lean on. The Statz model reflects this – the Course column in Find Me a Winner is blank for every player in the field. That means the selections this week are built entirely on base skill, current form, trending strokes gained, and course profile fit. The data is still strong. It just comes from fewer columns.

What the Statz data says

The Find Me a Winner model at Statz runs multi-factor analysis combining form, trending strokes gained, and tournament fit. With no event history to weight, form and ball-striking quality do the heavy lifting this week.

Collin Morikawa tops the model with a value score of 99 – the highest in the field. He sits form rank 3 out of 72 players with a trending SG of +2.37. His Statz projection gives him a 5.5% win probability and a 59.7% top 10 chance – second only to Scottie Scheffler, who is far shorter in the market.

Patrick Cantlay (value 82, form rank 4, trending SG +0.84 rising) and Si Woo Kim (value 80, trending SG +1.37 rising sharply) both stand out as market underprices when stacked against their Statz numbers.

Selection 1 – Collin Morikawa (20/1)

Collin Morikawa is the standout bet of the week. Number one in the Find Me a Winner model with a value score of 99. Form rank 3 in the field. Trending SG +2.37. He is playing the best golf of anyone in this field right now on a pure numbers basis.

The Blue Monster demands precision. Accurate iron play into firm Bermuda greens, course management on tight holes with water in play – this is Morikawa territory. He is world number 6 and one of the finest iron players on Tour. No course history to go on, but the profile fits hand in glove. The market gives him at 20/1 because Scheffler is dominating the market. That gap is the opportunity. Back him each-way.

Selection 2 – Patrick Cantlay (28/1)

Patrick Cantlay is form rank 4 in the field on Statz with a value score of 82 and a trending SG of +0.84 pointing upward. He is the kind of metronomic performer this course suits – measured, accurate, comfortable grinding out pars when the wind bites and picking up birdies when the openings arrive.

At 28/1 with a 48.1% top 10 projection, the market is sleeping on him. Form rank 4 out of 72 is a serious signal. He is in the kind of shape where a Doral leaderboard appearance looks a matter of when, not if.

Selection 3 – Si Woo Kim (28/1)

Si Woo Kim is one of the most interesting profiles in this field. Trending SG of +1.37 rising sharply – the upward arrow on the model is a meaningful signal. Form rank 14 out of 72. Value score 80. Statz projects a 50.9% top 10 probability at 28/1.

Kim plays Bermuda well and handles technical, wind-affected golf with composure. The trending SG improvement is the key number – players gaining strokes at this rate in recent rounds tend to carry it. At the same price as Cantlay, he is excellent value.

Longshot – Alex Smalley (80/1)

Alex Smalley at 80/1 is the each-way longshot. Fifth in the Find Me a Winner model with a value score of 80, form rank 11 out of 72, and a trending SG of +1.13 rising. He is inside the top 15 for recent form in a 72-man field and the market has him at 80/1.

Statz rates him at 35.1% top 10 probability. That is a long-odds player outperforming his market price on every form metric. At 80/1 with five places on offer, it only takes a top 5 finish to collect. The data supports the each-way interest.

Cadillac Championship 2026 – Statz Picks Summary

• Collin Morikawa – 20/1 each-way (Statz value score 99, form rank 3, trending SG +2.37)
• Patrick Cantlay – 28/1 each-way (value score 82, form rank 4, trending SG +0.84 rising)
• Si Woo Kim – 28/1 each-way (value score 80, trending SG +1.37 rising sharply)
• Alex Smalley – 80/1 each-way longshot (value score 80, form rank 11, trending SG +1.13 rising)

Full Cadillac Championship projections and player data available on Statz Golf.

EW terms: 1/4 odds, 5 places, bet365.