Alfred Dunhill Links 2026 Betting Preview: 4 Picks

The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is the oddest week on the DP World Tour calendar. Three links courses over the first three days, a professional and an amateur partner on every tee, and a 168-man field grinding round in five-hour groups before the survivors come back to the Old Course for Sunday. It is also, on the evidence, one of the least random results of the autumn: the last three winners are all in this week's field, and all three sit inside our model's top four.

What it takes to win at St Andrews

The Old Course closes the week at par 72 and 7,318 yards, and it is not the defence. Scoring here is low and consistently so. The last six editions were won at 18, 24, 19, 15, 18 and 22 under par, and our projection for this week lands at 20 under, with the cut around 4 under.

That cut is the part most previews get wrong, and it is worth stating plainly because it changes what an each-way bet is actually buying. The Dunhill does not cut to the top 65 like a standard tour event. It cuts to roughly the top 60 of 168 after three rounds: 60, 63, 66 and 71 players survived the 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 editions. Two thirds of this field will not see Sunday, which is why we are not quoting make-cut percentages on this card. Our generic cut model reads about 56 per cent for our four picks and it is measuring a cut this tournament does not have.

What the three courses do ask for is a short game and a putter. Wind exposure and firm links ground make up-and-downs routine rather than exceptional, and the rota rewards a player who has learned the bounces. If you want the longer version of why that matters more here than at a parkland event, our guide to the best links players right now and the one on whether course history matters both start from this week's type of venue.

Who is trending into it

Across this field's last 16 competitive rounds, measured on native DP World Tour strokes gained, the leaders are Matt Fitzpatrick at plus 2.48 per round, Robert MacIntyre at plus 2.00, Peter Uihlein at plus 1.94, then Bubba Watson and Jacob Skov Olesen level at plus 1.58 and Jeff Winther at plus 1.56. Fitzpatrick won here in 2023 and MacIntyre is the defending champion, so form and course record are pointing the same way at the top of the board.

Our model agrees with that read. It makes Fitzpatrick the favourite at 5.92 per cent to win, then Skov Olesen at 3.79, Tommy Fleetwood at 3.75, MacIntyre at 3.28, Alex Noren at 3.28 and Lucas Herbert at 3.17. The outright market is 158 per cent over the round with 158 of the 168 runners priced, so there is a full book to bet into.

Fitzpatrick at 15/2 is the one we have left alone, and the reason is arithmetic rather than doubt. At that price a 1.25pt each-way stake returns a little over 3pts if he places, against the 8pts this card commits. He has to win outright to pay for the week, and we would rather take the same view further down the board.

Alex Noren, 18/1, 1.25pt each-way

The best Dunhill Links record in the field at a price worth taking. Noren has played the event four times in our data and finished T15 in 2019, T12 in 2021, T2 in 2022 and T12 in 2024. He has never been worse than 15th here. He is 26th of 145 ranked players in this field over his last 16 rounds and 15th around the green, which is the skill this rota asks for most often.

The reservation is that the form is steady rather than sharp. His last five starts read T15, T18, a missed cut, T16 and T17, so he has been in the mix and never quite in contention. Strip out his single best event of the window and he still reads plus 0.57 per round, which holds up better than that run of finishes suggests. He is the anchor because he is the shortest price on the card, not because he is the most likely winner.

Lucas Herbert, 22/1, 1pt each-way

Ninth of 145 in this field over his last 16 rounds, and the shape of it fits the week better than the headline number does: 4th around the green and 8th putting. Three days on unfamiliar links greens is decided by exactly those two things. He has a T6 and a T5 inside his last five starts, and a T7 here in 2018 on his only completed visit.

Two caveats, both real. He is 97th of 145 off the tee, and his form leans on one week more than the rest of this card does, falling to plus 0.75 per round once his best single event comes out. He is the pick most likely to be undone by a bad driving day at Carnoustie.

Jacob Skov Olesen, 35/1, 1pt each-way

The model's second pick of 168 runners, and the steadiest form on this card by a clear distance. He is 5th of 145 in this field over his last 16 rounds, 5th for putting and 19th for approach, and he is the only one of our four whose form survives the test we apply to every pick: with his best single event removed he still reads plus 1.31 per round, where the other three fall away to between plus 0.26 and plus 0.75.

He finished T5 here last year on his only visit, and has a T2 and a T7 inside his last five starts. He also won the Amateur Championship at St Andrews in 2022 before turning professional, so the Old Course is not new to him even if the event nearly is. The honest caveat is that one visit is not a record, and at 35/1 we are paying for form rather than history.

Marcus Armitage, 90/1, 0.75pt each-way

A course specialist at a course specialist's price. Armitage was T2 here in 2023, and followed it with T43 in 2024 and T40 in 2025. Five visits, one of them a near miss, on a week where knowing these three links counts for more than it does anywhere else on the schedule. He is 28th of 145 in this field for putting.

This is a longshot on the evidence as much as the price, and the card should say so. He is 51st of 145 for strokes gained total, drops to plus 0.26 per round with his best week removed, and has three missed cuts in his last five starts. He is backed to place at a price where placing pays for the week on its own, not to win.

The card

• Alex Noren - 18/1 - 1.25pt each-way
• Lucas Herbert - 22/1 - 1pt each-way
• Jacob Skov Olesen - 35/1 - 1pt each-way
• Marcus Armitage - 90/1 - 0.75pt each-way (longshot)

All four are each-way at bet365, 1/5 odds, 8 places, and dead-heat rules apply on shared places. Each-way means two bets of the same size, so the card commits 8pts in total across the four picks. If you are new to the structure, each-way golf betting explained covers why the place part is where most of these returns come from.

Prices are bet365's own outright column rather than the best price across the market, because bet365's 8-place terms are what we settle to. Worth checking them against the board before you stake: the European Tour's aggregated feed has Noren at 20/1 and Armitage at 80/1, and quoting a feed price on a bet struck at bet365 would overstate every return on this page.

Every pick on this card is settled in public. The running profit and loss for our DP World Tour selections, pick by pick, is on the DP World Tour tips track record.