BMW PGA Championship 2026 Betting Preview: 4 Picks
The BMW PGA Championship returns to the West Course at Wentworth from 17 to 20 September, the DP World Tour's flagship week and a 144-player field. Unlike last week at Doonbeg, this is a course we know well: eight editions sit in our database, and the same names keep appearing near the top of them.
That matters more than usual, because Wentworth rewards a proven record here to an unusual degree. Two of our four picks are players the model ranks outside its top 35. We are overriding it on course form, and we say so below rather than hiding it.
What it takes to win at Wentworth
A par 72 of 7,267 yards, the West Course asks for approach play into firm, heavily contoured greens and second-shot control on the par 5s, which is where the week is usually decided. Our model projects a winning score of -19 with the cut at -3.
The strongest signal in eight editions of data is simply repetition. Rory McIlroy has five top-10s from six starts. Patrick Reed has played it four times and finished T4, T3, T5 and T3. Viktor Hovland has three top-10s from five. Aaron Rai has gone T2, T4, T3 in the last three years. Players either work this course out or they do not: Robert MacIntyre, who ranks first in this field for recent strokes gained, has seven starts here and no top-10 at all. Our course fit guide covers why some venues reward history far more than others.
Aaron Rai, 28/1
The reigning PGA champion, and the most recent strong Wentworth record in the field: T2 in 2023, T4 in 2024 and T3 in 2025, on -17, -17 and -16.
The reservation is current form, and it is real. He ranks 38th of 143 in this field over his last 16 rounds and 98th for putting, with two missed cuts in his last five starts. This is a course-form and class call, not a form call. The model has him 36th and we are overriding it deliberately.
Viktor Hovland, 16/1
T5, 5th and T5 in his last three visits, the steadiest course record on our card. He ranks 20th of 143 over his last 16 rounds and 8th in the field for approach play, which is the skill this course asks for most.
Putting is the weakness at 129th of 143, and on greens this contoured that is what stops him being staked higher despite being the shortest price we have taken.
Patrick Reed, 22/1
The model's pick of our four at rank 2 and 4.58 percent to win, and the only player in the field to have played Wentworth four times without once finishing outside the top five.
He ranks 9th of 143 over his last 16 rounds and 3rd around the green, with a T2 in his most recent start. On this course that combination of short game and proven fit is the profile that keeps working.
Kristoffer Reitan, 55/1
23rd of 143 over his last 16 rounds and 3rd in the field off the tee, with a win inside his last five starts. He qualified for the TOUR Championship, a top-30 field, so the class is not in question.
The course evidence is thin: one visit, a T24 in 2025. The model rates him 37th and this is the second of our two overrides, on class rather than course form.
Who we left out
Robert MacIntyre ranks first in this field for recent strokes gained and is not on the card, because seven Wentworth starts have produced no top-10. Shane Lowry won last week's Irish Open and is also absent: his recent strokes gained average is +2.14 per round, but strip out that single winning week and it falls to +1.31, and his record here reads one top-10 from eight visits including a T46 last year. A rating built mostly on the week a player just won is not a reason to back him the week after.
The card
- Aaron Rai, 28/1, 1.5pt each-way
- Viktor Hovland, 16/1, 1pt each-way
- Patrick Reed, 22/1, 0.75pt each-way
- Kristoffer Reitan, 55/1, 0.75pt each-way
Each-way terms are 1/5 the odds, 6 places, and the total staked is 8 points because an each-way bet stakes twice. See our guides to each-way betting and dead heat rules if you want the detail on how the place part settles.
Every pick is settled in public on our DP World Tour track record, alongside the full record for every card we publish. In the interest of not marking our own homework: the DP World Tour card is 0 from 12 across its first three weeks. The near misses have been genuine, with an 11th at Crans two shots outside the places and a T7 at Doonbeg one shot outside, but nothing has returned yet.