Irish Open 2026 Betting Preview: 4 Picks for Doonbeg

The Amgen Irish Open runs from 10 to 13 September at Trump International Golf Links and Hotel in Doonbeg, County Clare, with a 6,000,000 USD prize fund and a field of 136. It is the first time the DP World Tour has taken the Irish Open to Doonbeg, and that matters more than a normal venue switch: there is no prior edition here in our data, so course history and scoring anchors fall back to defaults.

Everything below is built from the Statz DP World Tour model and our own strokes-gained database. Where the model is working blind, we say so.

What it takes to win at Doonbeg

A par 72 measuring 7,200 yards on the Atlantic coast, Doonbeg is an exposed dunes links. Length is not the defence. Wind is, along with driving control through tight dune-framed corridors and the imagination to handle raised green sites. Our guide to wind as a betting edge covers why exposed links weeks widen the range of outcomes and reward players who can flight the ball down.

The Irish Open scoring record splits cleanly by course type. At links venues the winner has finished on -14 (Ballyliffin, 2018), -16 (Lahinch, 2019) and -9 (Royal County Down, 2024). At parkland venues it has been -19 and -20 at Mount Juliet and -14 and -17 at The K Club. Our model projects a winning score of -12 with the cut at -2, which lands squarely in the links band rather than the parkland one.

If you want the wider context on which players travel well to this kind of test, our links form rankings and course fit guide are the place to start.

Who is trending

Over the last 16 rounds, the two best players in this field on strokes gained total are Robert MacIntyre (1st of 133, +1.94 per round) and Rory McIlroy (2nd, +1.74). Neither is a betting proposition at the top of this market: our model rates MacIntyre at 1.52 percent to win against a de-vigged market price of 3.85 percent, and it is a similar story across the favourites.

That is not a claim that the market is wrong about them. It is a known property of our DP World Tour model, and worth stating plainly. The tour profile runs a wide scoring spread, which flattens the model's probabilities relative to the market. Across this field the median model-to-market ratio climbs steadily with price, from 0.41 under 14/1 to 1.69 at 100/1 and bigger. Sorting purely on that ratio would hand you a card of triple-figure prices every single week, by construction rather than by insight.

So the four picks below were ranked inside their own price bands and then decided on evidence. Because Doonbeg has no history for the model to lean on, the evidence that carried most weight was recent form at the closest analogue the calendar offers: Trump International Golf Links in Aberdeenshire, a different course from Doonbeg but the same brand of exposed Atlantic links. All four picks have a top-25 finish there.

Jacob Skov Olesen, 60/1

The anchor. Olesen ranks 3rd of 133 in this field for strokes gained total over his last 16 rounds at +1.71 per round, and 11th for approach play at +0.84. His last five starts read T2, T16, T9, MC, T41, so the peak is high and recent.

The links case is the strongest part of it. He finished 3rd at Trump International Golf Links in 2025 and 16th there this August. Our model has him 4th on the board at 2.93 percent to win, against a de-vigged market price of 1.07 percent.

Oliver Lindell, 45/1

The steadiest profile on the card. Lindell is 4th of 133 for strokes gained total (+1.71 per round), 8th for approach and 7th around the green, and he has not missed a cut in five starts: T15, T2, T36, T13, T6.

He was 7th at Trump International Golf Links in 2025. The reservation is driving, where he ranks 92nd of 133 off the tee at -0.14 per round. On a calm week that is survivable. If Doonbeg blows, it is the thing most likely to undo him, and it is the reason he is staked below Olesen despite being the shorter price.

Joe Dean, 110/1

Dean won his most recent start, and the profile behind it holds up: 6th of 133 for strokes gained total at +1.64 per round and 16th for approach. His last five are 1, T24, T39, MC, T9.

He also owns the best analogue-course result of anyone here, a 2nd at Trump International Golf Links in 2025, backed up by 24th at the same venue three weeks ago. At three figures, with a win already banked this season, that is the shape of price we want to be taking.

Shaun Norris, 125/1

The longshot, and the one most dependent on a single strength. Norris is 7th of 133 in this field for strokes gained putting at +0.71 per round, and he finished 7th at Trump International Golf Links three weeks ago, the freshest links evidence on the card.

The reservation is ball-striking: 65th for approach and 89th around the green. This is a putter and course-fit call at a big price, not a claim that his all-round game is in the best shape of the field. Staked accordingly.

Who we left out

Two names the model liked and we did not back, because the evidence contradicted the number. Davis Bryant carried the single biggest model-to-market ratio in the field at 150/1, but ranks 119th of 133 around the green and has no links finish better than 48th. Bernd Wiesberger showed a similar ratio at 100/1 on the strength of long-run ability, yet has missed the cut in four of his last six links starts and ranks 79th for approach and 80th off the tee.

The card

• Jacob Skov Olesen, 60/1, 1.5pt each-way
• Oliver Lindell, 45/1, 1pt each-way
• Joe Dean, 110/1, 0.75pt each-way
• Shaun Norris, 125/1, 0.75pt each-way

Each-way terms are 1/5 the odds, 6 places. Total staked is 8 points, since an each-way bet stakes twice. If you are new to how the place part settles, and to what happens when players tie, see our guides to each-way betting and dead heat rules.

Every pick is settled in public. The running record for this card sits on our DP World Tour track record, alongside the full track record for every card we publish. In the interest of not marking our own homework: the DPWT card is 0 from 8 across its first two weeks, with a best finish of 11th at Crans last week, two shots outside the places.