Valspar Championship 2026 Preview

The Valspar Championship tees off Thursday at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida. Par 71, 7,352 yards, $9.1m on the line. Statz has a full Valspar Championship field projection and form breakdown — here’s what the data says about who wins it.

What It Takes to Win at Copperhead

Copperhead is a tight, tree-lined Florida layout on Bermuda grass. It looks like a fairways-and-greens course, and it is — but the stats tell you exactly which greens matter. Top-10 finishers here average +1.40 SG Approach and +1.37 SG Putting per round. Those are the two non-negotiables. Off the tee matters (+0.68 SG OTT average) but it’s not what separates winners from the pack.

Bermuda greens reward feel and grain-reading. Players who putt well on Bermuda consistently — rather than players who happen to be hot on the greens one week — tend to be the ones who show up in this leaderboard year after year. Recent champions: Viktor Hovland (2025, -11), Peter Malnati (2024, -12), Taylor Moore (2023, -10), Sam Burns (back-to-back 2021-22, -17 both times). Different styles, same demand: iron play plus putting.

Who Is Trending Into This Week

The Statz Trending page tracks the last 16 rounds — the last four tournaments — which is the only form window that actually matters. Several players in this field are making serious noise right now.

Akshay Bhatia is 2nd on tour for SG Total over his last 16 rounds (+2.16) and 3rd for Putts per GIR (1.66) — elite in both of Copperhead’s key categories simultaneously. Jacob Bridgeman is the hottest putter in the field right now: 1st SG Putting (+1.48) and 1st Putts per GIR (1.61) over his last 16 rounds, averaging 5.06 birdies per round. Austin Smotherman is 3rd on tour for SG Approach (+0.97) — directly relevant at a course where approach play is the primary differentiator. Viktor Hovland is showing major SG improvement too — 2nd on the biggest improvers chart (+2.30 swing, now +1.44/rd) — the defending champion is finding his game at the right time.

The Picks

Akshay Bhatia — 20/1

Bhatia tops the Find Me a Winner model with a value score of +74.5 — the highest in the field. The Statz course fit model rates him at 96% compatibility with Copperhead, also the best in the field. That’s not a coincidence — his approach play and Bermuda putting profile is a direct match for what this course asks.

His trending SG of +2.16 is the largest upward movement in the field. He’s averaging 5.00 birdies per round and 1.66 putts per GIR. Three Valspar appearances haven’t produced the result yet — avg position 39.0 — but his best golf plainly wasn’t here before. It is now. The Statz projection model has him as the field’s most likely winner. 20/1 is the pick of the week.

Jacob Bridgeman — 20/1

Bridgeman finished 3rd here in 2025 — and he is currently the best putter in this entire field by the numbers. 1st SG Putting, 1st Putts per GIR, 5.06 birdies per round. SG Total +2.04 over 16 rounds, 3rd on tour.

Copperhead is a putting course on Bermuda grass. Bridgeman already proved he can navigate it — T3 last year, 3rd in 2025 behind Hovland and Thomas. He’s trending up with a +2.04 arrow on the trending model and the Find Me a Winner score of +72.7 puts him 3rd in the field. The 20/1 looks too big for a player who was in the top 3 here last year and is currently putting as well as anyone on tour.

Jordan Spieth — 28/1

Spieth sits 2nd in the Find Me a Winner table (+73.6) and his course history is the best of anyone in this field who hasn’t actually won here. Five appearances, average position 29.8, T3 in 2023. He knows Copperhead. He’s been around Bermuda greens his whole career and his putting on this surface has historically been excellent.

Recent form rank 19th in the field, trending SG +1.11 and stable. This isn’t a player who’s peaking — but it is a player with course knowledge, a putting pedigree, and a model that rates him 2nd in the field for overall value. 28/1 each-way makes sense alongside the two 20/1 shots.

Each-Way Longshot: Ryo Hisatsune — 30/1

Hisatsune was T4 here in 2025 on just his second Valspar appearance. Average position 18.5 across two starts — 7th best course record in the field. The Find Me a Winner model rates him 6th (+66.8). Trending SG +0.66 upward. Two appearances, both made the cut, one top 5. The pattern is clear — Copperhead suits him. 30/1 is generous for a player who nearly won this event 12 months ago.

Summary

• Akshay Bhatia — 20/1: 96% course fit, top of the model, hottest trending SG in field. Main pick.
• Jacob Bridgeman — 20/1: 1st SG Putting, T3 last year, 3rd in model. Course form plus red-hot putting.
• Jordan Spieth — 28/1: Course knowledge, Bermuda putter, 2nd in model overall value.
• Ryo Hisatsune — 30/1 EW: T4 in 2025, 6th in model, course clearly suits his game.

All odds bet365. EW: 1/4 odds, 5 places. Check the latest Valspar projections and form data on Statz for live updates through the week.