Memorial Tournament 2026 Power Rankings

Muirfield Village is Scottie Scheffler’s playground – and the data confirms it

Muirfield Village Golf Club is the ultimate ball-striker’s test. At 7,569 yards and par 72, Jack Nicklaus’s creation in Dublin, Ohio demands elite iron play above all else – approach shots account for 35.8% of the historic SG demand weighting, with putting at 28.4% and off-the-tee at 18.8%. Bentgrass greens reward precision over aggression, and the historic winning score of -9.5 tells you this course does not give up birdies cheaply.

Scottie Scheffler has won this event in back-to-back years. He returns as the clear number one in the model projections, and with a field of 72 featuring some serious firepower, the 2026 Memorial Tournament shapes up as one of the best weeks of the season. Here are the Statz power rankings – data-driven tiers built from form, course fit, base skill and projections.

Tier 1 – The Favourite

One man stands alone at the top. The model, the form, and the course history all point the same way.

1. Scottie Scheffler (OWGR #1)

Two-time defending champion. The model’s number one by a clear margin with a 17.5% win probability and a projected score of -9 – right on the historic winning number. Scheffler’s SG total of +2.77 per round over his last 16 rounds is the best of anyone in the field, and his SG:approach of +1.13 over that same window leads the entire field too. A base skill rating of 0.95 is the highest in the top 25, and a course history factor of 0.77 reflects what we already know – he owns this place. His course setup score of 0.81 confirms his game maps cleanly to Muirfield Village’s approach-heavy demand profile. When a player is the best in the world, in the best form, at his best course, the data leaves nothing to argue about. Scheffler is the one to beat. Again.

Tier 2 – Serious Contenders

Four players sit in a clear second tier. Each brings a combination of elite skill, strong course fit, and recent form that makes them genuine threats to the defending champion.

2. Rory McIlroy (OWGR #2)

McIlroy holds the highest course setup score in the entire field at 1.00 – a perfect profile match for what Muirfield Village demands. His base skill rating of 0.84 sits second only to Scheffler, and a course history factor of 0.70 shows consistent results at this venue. The model has him projected at -7 with a 9.7% win probability. McIlroy’s SG total of +1.25 per round over his last 16 is solid rather than spectacular, but at a course that rewards his specific blend of power and iron play, the underlying quality makes him dangerous. A genuine contender.

3. Ludvig Aberg (OWGR #15)

Aberg brings the best recent form factor in the top five at 0.80, and his SG total of +1.95 per round over his last 16 ranks fourth in the field. The model has him projected at -7 alongside McIlroy, with an 8.6% win probability. His SG:approach of +0.93 over his last 16 rounds ranks fourth in the field – exactly the skill this course rewards most. A course history factor of 0.71 and course setup score of 0.88 complete a profile that screams contender. The Swede is trending in the right direction at the right time.

4. Xander Schauffele (OWGR #10)

Schauffele owns the highest course fit score in Tier 2 at 83.7%, and his course setup score of 0.87 confirms his game maps beautifully to Muirfield Village. A course history factor of 0.67 shows he has performed well here before. His SG total of +1.15 per round over his last 16 is steady, and the model projects him at -5 with a 5.5% win probability. This is a player whose overall skill set – elite ball-striking, reliable putting, major championship pedigree – thrives on courses that test every department. Muirfield Village is exactly that.

5. Cameron Young (OWGR #3)

Young’s recent form factor of 0.76 is the second highest in the top 10, and his SG total of +1.78 per round over his last 16 rounds ranks sixth in the field. The model projects him at -5 with a 5.1% win probability. A base skill rating of 0.73 is strong, and while his course history factor of 0.43 suggests limited Muirfield Village experience, his overall game quality is undeniable. Young has been one of the most consistent players on Tour this season, and his ball-striking translates well to a course that punishes anything less than precision off the tee and into greens.

Tier 3 – Course Horses and Dangerous Outsiders

Five players who combine course pedigree, hot form, or elite skill in one specific area. Do not overlook this group – Muirfield Village has a habit of rewarding specialists.

6. Matt Fitzpatrick (OWGR #4)

Fitzpatrick is the classic Muirfield Village contender – precise, methodical, and armed with elite approach play. His SG:approach of +0.81 over his last 16 rounds ranks fifth in the field, and his SG total of +1.83 over that window ranks fifth overall. The model has him projected at -5 alongside Schauffele and Young, with a course fit of 69.1% and conditions factor of 0.76 – the highest in the top 10. Fitzpatrick’s game was built for courses like this.

7. Si Woo Kim (OWGR #19)

Kim is one of the hottest players in the field right now. His SG total over his most recent eight rounds sits at +2.71, a massive swing from -0.01 in the prior eight – a delta of +2.73. That kind of upward trajectory is significant. His SG total of +1.35 per round over his last 16 is strong, and a course history factor of 0.64 shows he has gone well here before. The model projects -4, but Kim’s current momentum makes him a threat to outperform that number.

8. Tommy Fleetwood (OWGR #8)

Fleetwood’s base skill rating of 0.78 is third highest in the top 10, and his course fit of 73.1% is excellent. A course history factor of 0.65 shows consistent results at Muirfield Village. The model projects -4, and while his recent form factor of 0.35 suggests he is not firing on all cylinders right now, Fleetwood’s underlying quality at a course that suits his profile means he should not be dismissed. When the ball-striking clicks, few players map better to this venue.

9. Sepp Straka (OWGR #18)

Straka owns the highest course fit score in the entire field at 96.7% – his game profile is almost perfectly matched to what Muirfield Village demands. He finished third here in 2025 and his course history factor of 0.73 backs that up. The model projects -2, which looks conservative given the course fit number. If Straka’s recent form (factor 0.39) improves even slightly this week, the course does the rest.

10. Sam Burns (OWGR #34)

Burns has the highest course history factor outside the top 5 at 0.69, and a course setup score of 0.83 confirms the fit is real. His SG:putting ranks inside the top 10 in the field over his last 16 rounds, and at a course where putting accounts for 28.4% of the demand weighting, that matters. The model has him projected at -3 with a course fit of 61.2%. A quiet but dangerous presence.

Tier 4 – Longshots to Watch

Bigger prices, bigger upside. Each of these four players brings a specific edge – whether that is blazing hot form, elite iron play, or a near-perfect course fit profile.

11. Alex Smalley (OWGR #38)

Smalley’s SG total of +1.96 per round over his last 16 ranks third in the entire field – only Scheffler and Cole are ahead of him. His recent form factor of 0.76 is the highest of anyone ranked 10th or below in the model, and his course fit of 68.8% is strong. The model projects him at level par, but the form says he is playing significantly better than that. Smalley is the kind of quiet performer who can thrive at a course that rewards consistency over fireworks.

12. Eric Cole (OWGR #69)

Cole’s SG total of +2.01 per round over his last 16 rounds is the second best in the entire field behind only Scheffler. His SG:approach of +0.93 over that window ranks third, and his SG:putting of +0.99 ranks third too – an elite combination at a course that demands both. A course fit of 79.2% is strong. The model has him ranked 28th, dragged down by a low field strength factor of 0.40, but the raw form numbers scream value. A genuine longshot with the data to back it up.

13. Nicolai Hojgaard (OWGR #29)

Hojgaard’s course fit score of 92.7% is the third highest in the entire field, and his course setup score of 0.97 is the best of anyone in the top 30. His base skill rating of 0.68 is solid, and the model has him projected at -1. Limited course history here (factor 0.25) is the main drag, but when a player’s game maps this well to a venue on paper, the results tend to follow eventually. A week where it could all click.

14. Gary Woodland (OWGR #43)

Woodland’s recent form factor of 0.76 ranks third in the top 20, and his SG total over his last 16 is trending in the right direction. A course setup score of 0.91 and course fit of 76.0% show his game maps well to Muirfield Village’s demands. The model projects -1, but Woodland has the kind of game – power off the tee, strong approach play – that can unlock this course when everything is clicking. At his price, the upside is there.

The Bottom Line

Scottie Scheffler is the undisputed number one – best form, best skill, best course history, best projections. Behind him, McIlroy’s perfect course setup score and Aberg’s surging form make them the most credible challengers. In the outsider tier, Cole’s elite SG numbers and Smalley’s quiet consistency offer genuine value. Muirfield Village is a ball-striker’s paradise, and the players who find greens and roll putts will rise to the top. Back quality this week.

All projections, course fit scores and strokes gained data sourced from Statz Golf.