Masters 2026: A to Z Guide to the Full Field

Augusta National. April 9-12. The most written-about 7,555 yards in golf, and yet every April it finds new ways to surprise you. The Statz model has processed the full 91-player field and projects a winning score of -12, with probabilities built from four pillars: Base Skill (38%), Course Fit (23%), recent Form (18%) and Masters History (13%). What follows is a scout’s view of every name on the sheet – from the world number one to the debutant qualifiers who’ll be experiencing their first Tuesday practice round with eyes like saucers.

All projection data sourced from statz.ai. EW terms: 1/4 odds, 5 places, bet365.

A

Ludvig Aberg

Statz Rank: 16 | Projected: -7 | Win: 1.8% | Top 10: 47.7%

Only in his second full season and already looking very much at home on the big stages. Aberg finished solo 7th on his Masters debut last year – a composed showing from a player who doesn’t really do nerves – and his current form is outstanding. Statz has him second on Tour for SG Total over the last 16 rounds at +2.27, which is a genuinely elite number. The game is firing. The course suits him. He’s worth a lot more than his odds imply. Statz profile

Akshay Bhatia

Statz Rank: 8 | Projected: -8 | Win: 2.4% | Top 10: 51.6%

Bhatia arrives as one of the form players in the entire field. He won at Bay Hill last month and his SG Total over the last 16 rounds sits at +2.16 – only Aberg and Morikawa have him beat. This is only his third Masters, and Augusta has a habit of humbling younger players who haven’t had time to figure out the angles. But the sheer quality of his recent ball-striking makes him impossible to ignore. Statz profile

Keegan Bradley

Statz Rank: 45 | Projected: -3 | Win: 0.6% | Top 10: 33.8%

The US Ryder Cup captain comes to Augusta as a participant rather than a contender, if we’re being honest. A solid professional who knows his way around a major, but the Statz model places him outside the realistic top-10 picture. A made cut and a decent finish would be a good week for him in what’s shaping up to be a significant year in his career off the course. Statz profile

Michael Brennan

Statz Rank: 51 | Projected: -3 | Win: 0.5% | Top 10: 31.0%

Brennan earned his invite the hard way – winning on the PGA Tour as a sponsor’s exemption. A debutant at Augusta, and the model puts him squarely in the field-filler category, but the fact he’s here at all says something about his ability. Worth watching to see how he handles the occasion. Statz profile

Jacob Bridgeman

Statz Rank: 15 | Projected: -7 | Win: 2.0% | Top 10: 48.7%

Won the Genesis Invitational at Riviera earlier this year and his Masters debut has every chance of going well. Why? Because Bridgeman is, right now, the best putter in the field. Statz has him ranked first for SG Putting over the last 16 rounds at +1.53 – and putting wins at Augusta. If he arrives comfortable with the greens by Thursday, he could easily outrun his odds. One of the more interesting debutant profiles in the field. Statz profile

Brian Campbell

Statz Rank: 84 | Projected: +3 | Win: 0.1% | Top 10: 15.1%

Finished 14th on his Masters debut, which was an encouraging first showing. The model is considerably less optimistic this time around, projecting him over par for the week. Recent form hasn’t been strong enough to suggest a serious contention run is likely. Statz profile

Patrick Cantlay

Statz Rank: 18 | Projected: -7 | Win: 1.6% | Top 10: 46.1%

Cantlay has built a solid Augusta record without ever threatening to run away with it – the kind of consistent finisher who tends to make cuts and post respectable numbers without quite making the noise his talent suggests he should. The Statz model rates him well, projecting -7 and a solid top-10 probability. If the putter gets warm, he can go low here. Statz profile

Angel Cabrera

Statz Rank: 63 | Projected: -2 | Win: 0.4% | Top 10: 28.8%

A former champion returning to Augusta in extraordinary personal circumstances. Cabrera won here in 2009 and his presence in the field always attracts attention, but the reality of his recent form tells a difficult story – he shot 75-80 on his return to competitive action this year. The projections reflect that. His story matters; his chances don’t. Statz profile

Wyndham Clark

Statz Rank: 81 | Projected: E | Win: 0.3% | Top 10: 23.1%

The 2023 US Open champion hasn’t found Augusta to his liking, and the model projects him around the cut bubble. Clark is a powerful player but Augusta rewards precision over power and his results here haven’t suggested the course fits his eye. Hard to make a case for him this week. Statz profile

Corey Conners

Statz Rank: 36 | Projected: -4 | Win: 0.8% | Top 10: 37.2%

Augusta’s most reliable underdog. Conners has four top-10s in eight starts here, which is an extraordinary strike rate for a player of his ranking. He draws the ball naturally, hits fairways, and attacks pins with irons – everything you need at Augusta. The Statz model is conservative with him at rank 36, but his course history says he consistently outperforms expectations on this layout. Keep him onside. Statz profile

Fred Couples

Projected: -2 | Win: 0.4% | Top 10: 29.2%

Freddie at Augusta is one of golf’s great love affairs and the crowd will always be glad to see him. At 66 years old, contention isn’t the point – but he has made the cut here more times than you’d believe possible, and he tends to play with a looseness that can produce lovely golf in bursts. Enjoy the show. Statz profile

D

Jason Day

Statz Rank: 31 | Projected: -5 | Win: 1.0% | Top 10: 39.8%

Finished 8th last year and that was no fluke. Day’s high ball flight is made for Augusta – he can attack pins that others can’t even aim at – and he’s been in solid enough form to suggest another big week is possible. The model has him as a genuine mid-field contender. Not at the top of the market but worth including in any each-way portfolio. Statz profile

Bryson DeChambeau

Statz Rank: 47 | Projected: -3 | Win: 0.6% | Top 10: 33.6%

DeChambeau led after rounds one and two in 2024 before fading on the weekend, and he arrives this year having won his last two LIV starts. The Statz model places him lower than the market might, but his power and creativity off the tee can conjure things others simply can’t. The question, as always, is whether the short game holds up when it matters. An interesting each-way punt if the price is right. Statz profile

E

Nico Echavarria

Statz Rank: 69 | Projected: -2 | Win: 0.4% | Top 10: 27.3%

Won the Cognizant Classic earlier in the year but has been trending sharply downward since – his SG numbers have dropped 2.21 strokes per round versus his prior 8-round sample, one of the biggest falls in the field. That kind of form drop is hard to ignore heading into a major. The model has him outside the realistic frame and the recent data backs that up. Statz profile

Harris English

Statz Rank: 24 | Projected: -6 | Win: 1.4% | Top 10: 43.9%

Finished 12th last year and has a solid Augusta record, but 2026 has been a quiet year – no top-20s heading into the Masters. The model still rates him respectably at 24th in the field, projecting -6, but there’s a gap between what the model expects and what his recent form suggests. One to keep an eye on during the practice rounds. Statz profile

F

Tommy Fleetwood

Statz Rank: 3 | Projected: -11 | Win: 5.2% | Top 10: 62.2%

The man who keeps knocking without quite getting the door open – but his Augusta form is genuinely brilliant. He finished third two years ago and led the field tee-to-green last year before the putter let him down on Sunday. He’s currently ranked joint-second in the Statz projections with a projected -11, and his tee-to-green game makes him one of the best fits for this course in the entire field. If he finds a putting week, this is the week it clicks. One of the most compelling each-way options in the market. Statz profile

Matt Fitzpatrick

Statz Rank: 7 | Projected: -8 | Win: 2.7% | Top 10: 53.4%

This is the form angle of the week. Fitzpatrick won the Valspar, finished second at the Players Championship, and his SG Total has improved by +3.30 strokes per round over his previous sample – the fourth biggest improvement on Tour. He’s trending hard in the right direction at exactly the right moment. Augusta suits his precise, controlled game and his iron play is at a career high right now. The Statz model projects him 7th in the field at -8. At any reasonable each-way price, he’s the pick of the week. Statz profile

Ryan Fox

Statz Rank: 46 | Projected: -3 | Win: 0.6% | Top 10: 33.6%

Two Tour wins in 2024 and 2025 have established Fox as a proper contender at this level, but a question mark over his physical fitness – he had kidney stone issues earlier this year – makes him difficult to back with confidence. The model has him at the lower end of the realistic contention frame. If he’s fully fit, he’s capable of going low; if not, he’s a risky proposition. Statz profile

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Sergio Garcia

Statz Rank: 80 | Projected: -1 | Win: 0.3% | Top 10: 24.3%

The 2017 champion and one of the greatest Augusta players of his generation. Garcia is now playing LIV and the gap between his best and his current form has widened. The model projects him near the cut line. The sentimental case is easy to make; the statistical one is much harder. Statz profile

Ryan Gerard

Statz Rank: 37 | Projected: -4 | Win: 0.8% | Top 10: 37.2%

A debutant with a solid recent profile – he posted a top-10 at the PGA Championship last year, which tells you he can handle major week pressure. The model rates him 37th in the field, which is respectable for a first-timer. One to watch early in the week to see if he’s comfortable with Augusta’s demands. Statz profile

Chris Gotterup

Statz Rank: 20 | Projected: -6 | Win: 1.5% | Top 10: 45.3%

Four PGA Tour wins and a Statz ranking of 20th in the field – Gotterup has done enough to warrant proper respect here. The model projects him at -6, which puts him firmly in the upper tier of the field. He’s got the game to go low and if Augusta suits his eye this week, he could easily outrun his ranking. Statz profile

Max Greyserman

Statz Rank: 77 | Projected: -1 | Win: 0.3% | Top 10: 24.8%

Five runner-up finishes and still waiting for his first Tour win – that bridesmaid tag is becoming a talking point. He’s shown he can compete but converting hasn’t happened yet, and the model places him outside the realistic top-10 picture at Augusta. Tough week to end the drought. Statz profile

Ben Griffin

Statz Rank: 27 | Projected: -6 | Win: 1.2% | Top 10: 42.0%

One of the stories of 2025 on Tour and he carries that momentum into 2026. The model rates him 27th in the field, projecting -6, which is a serious vote of confidence from Statz. He’s playing with confidence and Augusta could suit a player of his type – precise, patient, happy to work his way around the course. Worth monitoring. Statz profile

H

Harry Hall

Statz Rank: 23 | Projected: -6 | Win: 1.4% | Top 10: 44.5%

A debutant with a reputation as a short-game artist, which immediately makes Augusta an interesting prospect for him. The greens here will test any newcomer but if your wedges and putter are your weapons, you’ve got a chance. Statz rates him 23rd in the field – a significant projection for a first-timer. Intriguing. Statz profile

Brian Harman

Statz Rank: 82 | Projected: E | Win: 0.2% | Top 10: 21.2%

The 2023 Open champion and one of the more interesting form stories in the field. Harman’s SG numbers have improved by +3.92 strokes per round versus his prior 8-round sample – the biggest improvement of any Masters player. The model still has him 82nd – the improvement started from a low base – but if that uptick is real, he’ll outperform his projections. One of the more speculative each-way angles in the field. Statz profile

Tyrrell Hatton

Statz Rank: 48 | Projected: -3 | Win: 0.6% | Top 10: 32.6%

Quietly consistent here – 9th in 2024, 14th in 2025. Hatton might be one of the better-kept secrets in Augusta’s history. He’s on LIV now and the model places him 48th, but his course history suggests he consistently does better than his market position implies. At least one for the shortlist if the price stretches. Statz profile

Russell Henley

Statz Rank: 10 | Projected: -8 | Win: 2.1% | Top 10: 50.0%

Finished 4th here in 2023 and hasn’t forgotten how. Henley is one of the most precise iron players on Tour and Augusta rewards that quality more than almost anywhere else. The Statz model has him 10th in the field, projecting -8, with a 50% chance of a top-10. That’s a significant statement from the model about a player who doesn’t always grab the headlines he deserves. Statz profile

Nicolai Hojgaard

Statz Rank: 14 | Projected: -7 | Win: 2.0% | Top 10: 49.2%

Runner-up in Houston last week, where he led the field for approach play. His SG Total over the last 16 rounds sits at +1.17 and the timing of his form peak is ideal. He’s arriving at Augusta in form, confident, and the model backs it – 14th in the field at -7 projected. His twin brother Rasmus is also in the field but the Statz data puts Nicolai clearly ahead. One worth including in any each-way portfolio. Statz profile

Rasmus Hojgaard

Statz Rank: 35 | Projected: -4 | Win: 0.9% | Top 10: 37.4%

The younger twin (by minutes) and rated 21 places below Nicolai by the Statz model this week. Still capable of going low and it would be very on-brand for one of the Hojgaard brothers to contend here. The model puts him firmly in the second tier of realistic contenders. Statz profile

Max Homa

Statz Rank: 68 | Projected: -2 | Win: 0.4% | Top 10: 27.5%

Finished third two years ago but the model projects him well down the field at rank 68. That’s a significant downgrade and reflects a difficult run of form. Augusta can be kind to a certain type of player and Homa is one of Augusta’s better fits when his game is right – but right now the data says it isn’t. Statz profile

Viktor Hovland

Statz Rank: 29 | Projected: -5 | Win: 1.1% | Top 10: 40.6%

The Norwegian has world-class ball-striking but his short game has been a persistent issue and Augusta’s greens are unforgiving of anyone who can’t get up and down. He’s made coaching changes in the off-season and there are signs the short game is improving, but Augusta is a stern test for players in transition. The model rates him 29th. Interesting rather than compelling. Statz profile

I

Sungjae Im

Statz Rank: 72 | Projected: -1 | Win: 0.3% | Top 10: 25.9%

On paper one of Augusta’s most puzzling case studies. Im was runner-up on his debut in 2020 and has three more top-10 finishes in five starts – including 5th last year. He clearly loves this place and the place appears to love him back. But the Statz model – which weighs current form heavily – has him 72nd, reflecting a quiet 2026 season. The Augusta history is hard to ignore though. If you’re betting your gut, he’s one to consider. Statz profile

J

Casey Jarvis

Statz Rank: 55 | Projected: -3 | Win: 0.5% | Top 10: 30.7%

Back-to-back DP World Tour wins have earned the South African his first Masters invitation and he arrives with momentum. A debutant at Augusta, and the model places him mid-field at -3 projected. His winning form suggests he’s comfortable closing tournaments – the question is whether Augusta’s scale and intensity translates on a first visit. Statz profile

Dustin Johnson

Statz Rank: 75 | Projected: -1 | Win: 0.3% | Top 10: 24.9%

The 2020 champion and one of Augusta’s great performers – but the model has him 75th, reflecting both his LIV schedule and the limited recent data available. Johnson playing his best golf would be a serious contender anywhere; the problem is identifying whether this is one of those weeks. The projection says probably not. Statz profile

Zach Johnson

Statz Rank: 79 | Projected: -1 | Win: 0.3% | Top 10: 24.3%

The 2007 champion and a former Ryder Cup captain, Zach has made Augusta his own over the years. He finished 8th here last year, which is a remarkable achievement at this stage of his career. The model is conservative on his chances this time around, but don’t be shocked if he quietly posts another decent number. Statz profile

K

Naoyuki Kataoka

Statz Rank: 70 | Projected: -2 | Win: 0.4% | Top 10: 27.1%

Won the Japan Open to secure his invite and represents Japan alongside Matsuyama in the field. A debutant at Augusta and the model places him deep in the field. His Japan Open win shows he can close, but Augusta is a different world entirely. A made cut would be a brilliant result. Statz profile

Johnny Keefer

Statz Rank: 53 | Projected: -3 | Win: 0.5% | Top 10: 30.8%

A debutant who showed encouraging form in Houston ahead of the Masters. The model puts him in the mid-50s in the field, which is reasonable for a first-timer. His recent Houston showing suggests he isn’t coming in cold – watch how he handles the first practice round to gauge his mindset. Statz profile

Michael Kim

Statz Rank: 71 | Projected: -1 | Win: 0.3% | Top 10: 26.1%

Won the Open de France on the DP World Tour to earn his place here. Like many of the European Tour qualifiers, the gap between winning on that circuit and competing at Augusta is significant. The model has him near the bottom third of the field. A solid experience rather than a serious contention bid. Statz profile

Si Woo Kim

Statz Rank: 17 | Projected: -7 | Win: 1.8% | Top 10: 47.5%

Seven straight finishes between 12th and 39th at Augusta – a model of consistency that doesn’t get nearly enough credit. Si Woo Kim just quietly turns up, makes the cut, and puts up a decent number. The Statz model rates him 17th in the field and projects -7. If you’re looking for a reliable each-way profile, his Augusta record alone makes him one of the more attractive options at realistic prices. Statz profile

Jake Knapp

Statz Rank: 6 | Projected: -9 | Win: 2.9% | Top 10: 54.2%

The name that will raise eyebrows the most when punters look at the Statz projections. Knapp is world-ranked 42nd but the model has him 6th in the field – and there’s a clear reason why. He closed the Texas Open with a 62 and his SG Putting sits at +1.46 over the last 16 rounds, second only to Bridgeman. At Augusta, putting is oxygen. Knapp’s projections look extreme until you understand the putting angle – and then they make a lot more sense. A genuine each-way interest if the market hasn’t caught up. Statz profile

Brooks Koepka

Statz Rank: 64 | Projected: -2 | Win: 0.4% | Top 10: 28.7%

Five major titles and one of the great clutch performers of his generation – but the model has him 64th in this field, and LIV scheduling makes his recent data thin. Koepka has never won at Augusta and his recent form doesn’t suggest a breakthrough is imminent. That said, you write off five-time major champions at your peril. He’s the outsider’s outsider. Statz profile

Kurt Kitayama

Statz Rank: 33 | Projected: -5 | Win: 1.0% | Top 10: 38.9%

Trending in the wrong direction. Kitayama’s SG numbers have dropped 2.15 strokes per round versus his prior 8-round sample – a significant deterioration. The model still has him 33rd, which reflects underlying quality, but the form alarm is ringing. Hard to back with confidence until there’s evidence the slide has stopped. Statz profile

Kristoffer Reitan

Statz Rank: 52 | Projected: -3 | Win: 0.5% | Top 10: 31.0%

Won the Nedbank Challenge in South Africa to earn his Masters place. The Norwegian has shown he can handle big events but Augusta represents the biggest stage of his career. The model places him in the mid-50s. A good week would be a top-30 finish and a proper feel for the place ahead of future visits. Statz profile

L

Haotong Li

Statz Rank: 56 | Projected: -3 | Win: 0.5% | Top 10: 30.5%

Returns to Augusta after a seven-year absence – a gap that tells its own story. Li was a highly-rated prospect and it’s good to see him back at this level. The model places him mid-field at 56th. Getting reacquainted with Augusta over four rounds will be the primary goal this week. Statz profile

Min Woo Lee

Statz Rank: 12 | Projected: -8 | Win: 2.1% | Top 10: 49.6%

Flying under the radar but the Statz numbers are compelling. Lee is averaging 5.13 birdies per round, second in the field, and his SG Total sits at +1.89 over the last 16 rounds. His SG Off The Tee ranks third in the field at +0.83 – he’s bombing it and finding fairways. Augusta rewards that combination. The model has him 12th at -8 projected. A serious each-way option who might be available at long-odds. Statz profile

Shane Lowry

Statz Rank: 21 | Projected: -6 | Win: 1.5% | Top 10: 44.6%

Third two years ago, then shot 81 on Sunday last year in one of the more brutal collapses we’ve seen in recent Masters history. Lowry loves Augusta but Augusta hasn’t always loved him back. His SG trend is also heading the wrong way, down 1.99 strokes per round – the fourth biggest drop in the Masters field. The model still rates him 21st at -6 projected, but the form concern is real. Worth monitoring but back with caution. Statz profile

M

Robert MacIntyre

Statz Rank: 26 | Projected: -6 | Win: 1.2% | Top 10: 42.3%

Finished 12th on his debut last year and gave a very good account of himself. His SG Total over the last 16 rounds is +1.77, placing him 8th in the field for recent form. The left-to-right shape Augusta requires from right-handers is MacIntyre’s natural shot shape as a left-hander – a real advantage. The model rates him 26th. A legitimate each-way interest at an attractive price. Statz profile

Hideki Matsuyama

Statz Rank: 13 | Projected: -8 | Win: 2.1% | Top 10: 49.6%

The 2021 champion and a player who visibly comes alive at Augusta. He’s won the Hero World Challenge and has two victories in 2026 already, confirming he’s found another gear. His SG Total sits at +0.52 over the last 16 rounds – not his best but positive – and the model has him 13th in the field at -8 projected. History says you don’t discount Matsuyama at Augusta. A previous champion always deserves respect here. Statz profile

Matt McCarty

Statz Rank: 38 | Projected: -4 | Win: 0.8% | Top 10: 36.5%

Made a positive impression on debut, finishing 14th, but recent form has been poor. The model still rates him 38th in the field but the current data doesn’t inspire confidence for a serious contention run. A solid course record offset by a worrying form dip. Statz profile

Maverick McNealy

Statz Rank: 22 | Projected: -6 | Win: 1.4% | Top 10: 44.5%

The model has him 22nd in the field at -6 projected – a significant vote of confidence for a player who doesn’t always appear in casual discussion about Augusta contenders. The Statz projection places him in the same tier as Harris English and Shane Lowry. Worth taking seriously. Statz profile

Rory McIlroy

Statz Rank: 2 | Projected: -11 | Win: 5.2% | Top 10: 62.2%

The defending champion. Completed the career Grand Slam here last year in one of the most emotional major finishes in recent memory. He comes back as the man to beat and the Statz model backs him joint-second at -11 projected, 5.2% win probability. The only concern in the data is a back issue picked up at Bay Hill – that needs monitoring before Thursday. If he’s fully fit, he’s one of two or three players who have to be in your portfolio. Statz profile

Tom McKibbin

Statz Rank: 57 | Projected: -2 | Win: 0.5% | Top 10: 30.2%

Won in Hong Kong to earn his invitation and arrives as a Northern Irish debutant following in some considerable footsteps. McKibbin has real talent – smooth ball-striker, good temperament – but the model has him in the bottom half of the field. A made cut and a learning experience. Statz profile

Collin Morikawa

Statz Rank: 4 | Projected: -9 | Win: 3.6% | Top 10: 57.4%

Has never finished outside the top 20 in any of his April starts – that record is extraordinary. And his current iron play? The best in the field. Statz has him ranked first for SG Approach over the last 16 rounds at +1.22. Augusta rewards iron play more than almost any other course in the world. The concern is fitness – he withdrew from the Valspar with a back issue after missing the Players Championship. If he’s right physically, he’s arguably the one player whose Augusta profile is most compelling. Flag this one. Statz profile

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Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen

Statz Rank: 54 | Projected: -3 | Win: 0.5% | Top 10: 30.7%

Won the Australian Open to earn his place here. The Dane arrives as a debutant and the model places him in the mid-50s. A proper qualifier with a proper win on his CV – Augusta will be his biggest test yet. Statz profile

Alex Noren

Statz Rank: 28 | Projected: -5 | Win: 1.1% | Top 10: 41.3%

The model places him 28th in the field but Noren’s Augusta average historically is poor. He’s the kind of tidy, consistent ball-striker who tends to thrive on European parkland tracks but finds Augusta’s slopes and undulations tricky to navigate. The projection may be generous relative to his course history. Statz profile

Andrew Novak

Statz Rank: 76 | Projected: -1 | Win: 0.3% | Top 10: 24.9%

Won the Zurich Classic as part of a team event and earns his Masters invitation through that. A solid Tour professional but the model has him deep in the field at 76th. Augusta will be a new experience and surviving the cut would be the realistic target this week. Statz profile

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Jose Maria Olazabal

Projected: -2 | Win: 0.4% | Top 10: 28.9%

Two-time champion – 1994 and 1999 – and one of the most beloved figures in Augusta’s history. Olazabal at the Masters is pure theatre. Contention isn’t the expectation but the reception he’ll receive on the first tee Thursday morning will be one of the week’s warmest moments. Statz profile

Carlos Ortiz

Statz Rank: 58 | Projected: -2 | Win: 0.5% | Top 10: 29.3%

On LIV and his sole previous Augusta appearance produced rounds of 82 and 71 – a difficult debut. The model has him 58th in the field. A much-improved week would be needed to make any kind of statement here. Statz profile

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Marco Penge

Statz Rank: 50 | Projected: -3 | Win: 0.5% | Top 10: 31.2%

Three DP World Tour wins in six months is a ridiculous streak and the Englishman arrives at Augusta on the back of one of the hottest runs on the European Tour. A debutant, and the model places him 50th, but the winning form is real and recent. If any of the lesser-fancied debutants is going to cause a stir, Penge’s momentum makes him the most credible candidate. Statz profile

Aldrich Potgieter

Statz Rank: 83 | Projected: +1 | Win: 0.2% | Top 10: 19.2%

The raw numbers on Potgieter are extraordinary – his SG Off The Tee sits at +0.84 over the last 16 rounds, second in the field. He hits it an absurd distance. But Augusta is a course management examination as much as a power contest, and the model projects him over par for the week. Power without precision is expensive here. An entertainer rather than a contender this week. Statz profile

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Jon Rahm

Statz Rank: 44 | Projected: -4 | Win: 0.7% | Top 10: 34.0%

The 2023 champion and he hasn’t been far away on LIV – results of 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 5th and 2nd show he’s competitive. But the model weighs LIV data more cautiously than PGA Tour results and his Augusta-specific preparation is thinner than previous years. Still a former champion and capable of going very low here when the game clicks. The Statz model’s 44th ranking might undervalue him slightly, but the data is what it is. Statz profile

Aaron Rai

Statz Rank: 67 | Projected: -2 | Win: 0.4% | Top 10: 27.5%

A reliable DP World Tour operator who brings a tidy game to Augusta for what is likely his first start here. The model has him deep in the field and the realistic target is a made cut. Accurate enough from tee to green to avoid disaster, but not the profile that typically contends here. Statz profile

Patrick Reed

Statz Rank: 43 | Projected: -4 | Win: 0.7% | Top 10: 34.3%

The 2018 champion comes in with wins in Dubai and two LIV events this year – so the competitive edge is clearly still there. The worry is preparation: he skipped the India event and arrives without a recent Augusta warm-up tournament. His course record is exceptional – he was third last year at -9 – and that history keeps him in the conversation. But the model has him 43rd, reflecting both the LIV discount and the thin prep run. Statz profile

Davis Riley

Statz Rank: 85 | Projected: +3 | Win: 0.1% | Top 10: 14.9%

Finished second at the PGA Championship, which is a legitimate major pedigree marker, but the model projects him over par at Augusta. His current ranking of 85th in the field is tough to work around. It would take a dramatic performance to shift this picture. Statz profile

Justin Rose

Statz Rank: 40 | Projected: -4 | Win: 0.7% | Top 10: 35.5%

Three times a runner-up here and he came agonisingly close again last year, losing the play-off to McIlroy. Augusta is clearly in his DNA – the course suits his precise, controlled game perfectly. The Statz model places him 40th, which seems conservative given his history. At the right price, Rose always deserves a line in your each-way portfolio at Augusta. Statz profile

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Sam Burns

Statz Rank: 32 | Projected: -5 | Win: 1.0% | Top 10: 39.1%

A strong putter with inconsistent irons – a profile that creates interesting Augusta dynamics. The putter helps, the iron inconsistency hurts. The model rates him 32nd. Capable of a quietly solid week but probably not a realistic contention pick at his likely market position. Statz profile

Sam Stevens

Statz Rank: 41 | Projected: -4 | Win: 0.7% | Top 10: 35.1%

A prodigious driver arriving for his Augusta debut, having skipped the Texas Open to prepare specifically for this week. That decision tells you something about how seriously he’s taking it. The model places him 41st at -4 projected. Long hitters can do real damage at Augusta and Stevens has the power to set up short irons into the par fives. An intriguing debutant. Statz profile

Xander Schauffele

Statz Rank: 5 | Projected: -9 | Win: 3.0% | Top 10: 54.8%

Five top-10s in eight Masters starts. Two major titles. A two-year SG Total of +1.83 over the last 16 rounds – one of the top figures in the field. Schauffele is relentlessly, almost boringly consistent at Augusta and the model reflects that with a 5th-place ranking at -9 projected. The question with Xander is always whether he can win a major – he’s answered that twice now. Hard to leave him out of any portfolio. Statz profile

Scottie Scheffler

Statz Rank: 1 | Projected: -12 | Win: 7.5% | Top 10: 66.9%

Won here in 2022 and 2024 and has never finished outside the top 20 in six starts at Augusta. The world number one. The Statz model’s top projection at -12 and 7.5% win probability. His SG Total over the last 16 rounds sits at +1.41. There is no credible argument against including Scheffler in your Masters portfolio – the debate is about how much exposure to take at his likely short price. Statz profile

Charl Schwartzel

Statz Rank: 78 | Projected: -1 | Win: 0.3% | Top 10: 24.4%

The 2011 champion and one of Augusta’s great birdies – he birdied four in a row to win the title. He’s been on LIV since and hasn’t posted a top-10 since making the move. The model places him 78th. Time and circumstance make the 2011 magic hard to recapture. Statz profile

Vijay Singh

Projected: -2 | Win: 0.4% | Top 10: 28.9%

Three-time Masters champion – 2000 – and like Couples and Olazabal, a presence here that transcends weekly results. Singh at Augusta is about legacy and atmosphere rather than contention. Enjoy it. Statz profile

Cameron Smith

Statz Rank: 60 | Projected: -2 | Win: 0.4% | Top 10: 29.1%Statz Rank: 60 | Projected: -2 | Win: 0.4% | Top 10: 29.1%

Missed the cut last year but Cameron Smith’s short game is still one of the best on the planet – and Augusta is the course where that skill matters most. On LIV and ranked 211th in the world, the model projects him 60th. It would take an exceptional week to climb back into the picture, but stranger things have happened when you can chip and putt like Smylie does. Statz profile

JJ Spaun

Statz Rank: 39 | Projected: -4 | Win: 0.7% | Top 10: 35.6%

Won the 2025 US Open, which is major pedigree that demands respect. He’s made the cut at Augusta in two previous visits and the model places him 39th in the field. A US Open champion arriving with pedigree and some Augusta course knowledge – he’ll be worth tracking rather than ignoring. Statz profile

Jordan Spieth

Statz Rank: 25 | Projected: -6 | Win: 1.3% | Top 10: 43.5%

The 2015 champion and one of Augusta’s most compelling characters. He knows this course like his own back garden and his Augusta record across 11 starts is remarkable. The concern coming in is his putter, which leaked -8.00 SG at his last event in Texas – a horrible number. But his previous two events – T11 at Valspar and T12 at Genesis – showed he can still compete. Spieth at Augusta is never boring. The model has him 25th at -6 projected. At the right price, his course history alone makes him a legitimate each-way interest. Statz profile

Sepp Straka

Statz Rank: 11 | Projected: -8 | Win: 2.1% | Top 10: 49.9%

Here’s a curious puzzle. Straka hasn’t broken 70 in his last 14 rounds at Augusta – a stark record – yet consistent Tour form puts him 11th in the Statz projections at -8. The model weighs overall skill and current form heavily, and those numbers are good. But Augusta has a specific way of finding out players and Straka’s course history is a genuine flag. A fascinating data conflict. Statz profile

T

Nick Taylor

Statz Rank: 42 | Projected: -4 | Win: 0.7% | Top 10: 35.1%

A solid PGA Tour operator and the model places him 42nd. Augusta is not traditionally a course that suits the Canadian’s profile but he’s consistent enough to make the cut and put up a reasonable number. Not a realistic contention pick but a tidy each-way fill-in if you need numbers. Statz profile

Justin Thomas

Statz Rank: 30 | Projected: -5 | Win: 1.0% | Top 10: 39.8%

Back from surgery and the big question is how much the layoff has affected his game. Thomas’s Augusta record is full of promise – he’s the kind of player the course should suit – but the model places him 30th at -5, reflecting uncertainty about his current physical state. A fit Thomas is a top-10 threat; an uncertain Thomas is a risk. Worth monitoring his form in practice rounds. Statz profile

V

Sami Valimaki

Statz Rank: 66 | Projected: -2 | Win: 0.4% | Top 10: 27.8%

Won the RSM Classic in 2024 to earn his Masters invitation. A debutant and the model has him 66th in the field. Making the cut at Augusta for the first time would be a solid week. The RSM win shows he can close under pressure. Statz profile

W

Bubba Watson

Statz Rank: 74 | Projected: -1 | Win: 0.3% | Top 10: 25.4%

Two-time champion in 2012 and 2014, and Augusta holds a very particular place in Watson’s career story. He finished 14th last year which was a genuinely impressive return. The model has him 74th now and the data doesn’t suggest a repeat contention run is likely – but you never quite write off a two-time champion who understands this course’s angles. Statz profile

Mike Weir

Statz Rank: 65 | Projected: -2 | Win: 0.4% | Top 10: 28.1%

The 2003 champion is another of Augusta’s veteran returns. Weir at the Masters is about celebrating a great champion rather than expecting contention. The model places him 65th. Another first-tee moment worth watching. Statz profile

Danny Willett

Statz Rank: 73 | Projected: -1 | Win: 0.3% | Top 10: 25.7%

The 2016 champion who won in the most unlikely of circumstances when Jordan Spieth collapsed on the back nine. A decade on and Willett arrives ranked 393rd in the world. The model has him 73rd in the field. His green jacket remains one of major golf’s great twist endings; a repeat isn’t on the cards this week. Statz profile

Gary Woodland

Statz Rank: 49 | Projected: -3 | Win: 0.6% | Top 10: 32.2%

The biggest improver in the entire Masters field. Woodland’s SG numbers have risen by +3.82 strokes per round versus his prior 8-round sample – nobody in this field has improved more sharply. After everything he’s been through, that uptick in form is a wonderful story. The model has him 49th. Whether the form improvement translates to an Augusta result remains to be seen, but the data is pointing in the right direction. Statz profile

The Amateurs

Five amateurs complete the 91-player field. No Statz projection data is available for amateur players.

Ethan Fang

The US Amateur champion. Fang earned his place the hard way and will be one of the most closely-watched amateurs in the field. The buzz around him heading into Augusta is significant.

Mason Howell

US Amateur qualifier. Another young American talent getting his first look at Augusta. The experience alone will shape the rest of his career.

Jacob Herrington

Amateur qualifier. Augusta on a sunny Tuesday in April is unlike anywhere else in golf. Herrington gets to experience that this week.

Mateo Pulcini

Latin America Amateur champion. Pulcini represents South American golf at its highest level. A significant moment for the region’s amateur game.

Fifa Laopakdee

Asia-Pacific Amateur champion. Following in a long tradition of Asia-Pacific champions who’ve made their Masters debut through this route. A week to savour.

The Bottom Line

There are four or five names the Statz data keeps pushing to the front of the queue.

Matt Fitzpatrick is the value pick of the week. Won Valspar, finished second at the Players, and improved 3.30 SG strokes per round – the fourth biggest improvement on Tour. He’s trending hard right and Augusta suits his controlled, precise game perfectly. The model has him 7th in the field. At each-way prices, he represents the clearest edge in the market.

Jake Knapp at rank 6 in the projections is the number that will surprise most punters. Closed Texas with a 62. Second in the field for SG Putting. Augusta puts a premium on putting. If the market hasn’t caught up with his Statz numbers, there’s an angle here.

Jordan Spieth at rank 25 is the historical each-way play. His putter was dreadful at Texas but the two events before that were solid, and nobody who has grown up here forgets how to read Augusta’s greens. The 2015 champion at a big price is always worth a line.

Collin Morikawa – flag this one. First in the field for SG Approach. Never outside the top 20 in any April start. Augusta rewards iron play above all else. But he withdrew from the Valspar with a back issue. If he’s fully fit, he’s perhaps the most compelling name in the field. If the back hasn’t settled, the risk is real. Worth monitoring right up to Thursday morning.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are unavoidable. The world number one who has won here twice and the defending champion who completed a Grand Slam last year. The model projects them 1st and 2nd respectively. The debate is only about price.

Full tournament projections, updated round by round, at statz.ai.

EW terms: 1/4 odds, 5 places – bet365.