Major Form Guide: Who Shows Up When It Matters Most

The PGA Championship starts Thursday. Before the year’s second Major gets underway at Quail Hollow, we’ve dug into three years of Major results to find the players who consistently show up when it matters most. Win or miss cut – the record doesn’t lie.

Using Major finishing positions from 2023 through Masters 2026 across all four Majors, here’s how the big names have stacked up – and what the record says heading into this week.

Scottie Scheffler: Untouchable in Majors

The numbers for Scottie Scheffler are almost absurd. Over the last three years of Majors, he has 11 top-10 finishes from 13 starts. Zero missed cuts. He has won three times in that span – Masters 2024, PGA Championship 2025, and The Open 2025. He finished second at the Masters this April. His average scoring across all Major appearances sits at 69.71 per round – the best of anyone in the field.

In short: Scheffler does not miss. The record across 2023-2026 reads 10th, 2nd, 3rd (US Open), 1st (Masters), 8th (PGA), T7 (US Open), 4th (Masters), 1st (PGA), T7 (US Open), 1st (The Open), 2nd (Masters 2026). That is a player operating at a level no one has matched in the modern game. He is the number one seed here, and that has nothing to do with recency – it is three years of sustained excellence at the highest level.

Xander Schauffele: Back-to-Back Major Champion

Xander Schauffele waited a long time for his first Major. Then he won two in a row. PGA Championship 2024. The Open Championship 2024. His record over the last three years shows nine top-10 finishes from 13 starts, with a scoring average of 70.15 per round. He has placed inside the top 10 at every single Major in 2023 and 2024 combined.

The 2025 season was quieter in Majors – T8 at Augusta, T28 at Quail Hollow, T12 at the US Open, T7 at Troon. Not bad by any normal standard, but a step back from his 2024 peak. He is 9th at Augusta this year. At 16/1, Schauffele is one of the most credentialed Major players in the field. His record here says he belongs near the top of the market.

Rory McIlroy: Masters Champion, Now the Complete Package

Rory McIlroy won The Masters this April – ending the longest wait in modern golf. It was not a fluke. His Major record over the last three years shows seven top-10 finishes, a T2 at the US Open in both 2023 and 2024, a T7 at the 2024 Open, and back-to-back Masters titles in 2025 and 2026. His scoring average of 70.26 across 24 Major rounds is third best in the field.

The PGA Championship is where McIlroy’s record is thinner – T47 in 2025, T12 in 2024, T7 in 2023. He has not threatened at Quail Hollow the way he threatens everywhere else. But at 15/2, the market is pricing in his recent form and Major pedigree, not just course history. That feels right. This is a player at the peak of his powers.

Bryson DeChambeau: The Most Explosive Major Performer

If you strip away the noise and look only at the scorecard, Bryson DeChambeau has one of the most remarkable Major records of the last three years. T4 PGA 2023, T2 PGA 2024, US Open winner 2024, T5 Masters 2025, T2 PGA 2025 – seven top-10 finishes from 12 starts, scoring average of 70.85. He is an elite Major player, full stop.

The flip side: four missed cuts in that same span. DeChambeau is boom or bust. But when he is on, he is on course-record pace. At a demanding Quail Hollow, his power sets him apart. He won the US Open in 2024 on arguably the most demanding course setup the USGA could find. This course suits him.

Jon Rahm: Still a Threat Despite a Quiet 12 Months

Jon Rahm won The Masters in 2023 and finished second at The Open the same year. His six top-10 finishes from the last three years, scoring average of 70.61, and that Augusta green jacket make him credentialed. But 2024 and 2025 have been quieter – a T45 at Augusta 2024, an MC at the 2024 PGA, and only a T14 and T8 at recent Majors. He has finished T38 at Augusta 2026.

At 14/1, the market respects his record. Whether the current Rahm is the 2023 Rahm is the real question. The three-year data says yes, he belongs in the conversation. The 18-month data has more question marks.

The Consistent Grinders: Rose and Fleetwood

Two players whose Major records deserve more attention than their odds suggest.

Justin Rose has five top-10 finishes in the last three years, including T9 at the 2023 US Open, T2 at The Open 2024, T2 at Augusta 2025, and T3 at Augusta 2026. He is 45/1. A player who has finished inside the top 3 at a Major twice in the last four starts. His scoring average of 71.16 across 23 rounds is sixth best in the field.

Tommy Fleetwood is 20/1 with three top-10 Major finishes in the last three years: T5 US Open 2023, T3 Masters 2024, T4 US Open 2025. His scoring average of 71.12 is excellent for a player at his current price. He has also been in consistently strong form on Tour in 2026. Fleetwood at 20/1 with that record looks light.

The Breakout Candidates: Young, Fitzpatrick, Hovland

Three players whose Major records suggest a big one is coming.

Cameron Young finished T3 at the Masters in April, T4 at the US Open in 2025, and T3 at the Open in 2023. Five top-10 Major finishes in three years, scoring average 71.40. He just won the Cadillac Championship and leads the Tour in strokes gained over the last 24 rounds. At 12/1 (per market), his time is now.

Matthew Fitzpatrick has three top-10 Major finishes in three years, with a T4 at The Open 2025 his recent highlight. Two wins on Tour in the last month. He is 20/1 and peaking at the right time.

Viktor Hovland has four top-10 Major finishes in three years, including T2 PGA 2023, T3 PGA 2024, T3 US Open 2025. He has a specific affinity for the PGA Championship – his two best finishes in the dataset are both at this event. At 35/1, that pattern is worth noting.

The 2023 Champions: Where Are They Now?

A look at what happened to the four Major champions from 2023.

Jon Rahm (Masters 2023) – still a contender at 14/1 as discussed above.

Brooks Koepka (PGA 2023) – won the PGA at Oak Hill, T2 at Augusta 2023. Since then: T45 at Augusta 2024, T12 US Open 2025, T12 Masters 2026. The record shows two top-10s from 2024-2026 Majors. Still capable of winning a Major, still competitive. At 40/1 with an average of 71.38, the price is fair.

Wyndham Clark (US Open 2023) – T4 at The Open 2025 is the only other top-10 from the last three years. T21 at Quail Hollow this year. The 2023 win looks increasingly like a peak moment.

Brian Harman (The Open 2023) – won at Hoylake but has not threatened at a Major since. T33 at Augusta this year. The 125/1 reflects that reality.

The Value Angle: Russell Henley

The most underrated Major performer in the field based on the three-year data. Russell Henley has six top-10 finishes from 13 Major starts since 2023 – T4 Masters 2023, T7 US Open 2024, T5 Open 2024, T10 US Open 2025, T10 Open 2025, T3 Masters 2026. He finished third at Augusta six weeks ago. Scoring average of 71.31 across 21 rounds.

He is 50/1. That is a player with more top-10 Major finishes than Collin Morikawa over the same period, priced at more than double his odds. The data strongly suggests Henley is undervalued by the market.

Major Form Summary: Who Turns Up When It Counts

Player	Top 10s (2023-26)	Av. Score	Wins	PGA Odds
Scottie Scheffler	11	69.71	3 (Masters 24, PGA 25, Open 25)	4/1
Xander Schauffele	9	70.15	2 (PGA 24, Open 24)	16/1
Rory McIlroy	7	70.26	2 (Masters 25, Masters 26)	15/2
Bryson DeChambeau	7	70.85	1 (US Open 24)	11/1
Jon Rahm	6	70.61	1 (Masters 23)	14/1
Russell Henley	6	71.31	0	50/1
Tommy Fleetwood	3	71.12	0	20/1
Viktor Hovland	4	70.91	0	35/1
Cameron Young	5	71.40	0	12/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick	3	71.40	0	20/1

Full player profiles and current form ratings at statz.ai/golf. Use the ratings tool to cross-reference Major history with current strokes-gained data before placing any bets.

EW terms: 1/4 odds, 5 places, bet365.