Qué equipos han sacado de sus ocasiones más de lo que merecían y cuáles menos.
Actualizado el 14 de noviembre de 2026, tras el último partido
Bristol Rovers es el equipo con el mayor déficit de League Two: 16 puntos con ocasiones que valían 22,2 xPts, una diferencia de 6,2. En el otro extremo, Salford City ha sumado 32 puntos con unos xPts de 22,6, 9,4 más de lo que justifican sus números.
Los goles esperados miden la calidad de las ocasiones que un equipo genera y concede: cada tiro recibe un valor entre 0 y 1 según la frecuencia con la que se convierten tiros parecidos. Los puntos esperados salen de pasar cada partido terminado por un modelo de Poisson con el xG de los dos equipos, que da una probabilidad de victoria, empate y derrota, y de repartir tres puntos y un punto según esas probabilidades. Los datos de base los proporciona Sportmonks. Cómo se calcula el xG Cómo se calculan los xPts
| # | Equipo | Jugados | Goles | xG | Goles menos de xG | Goles en contra | xGA | Goles en contra menos xGA | Diferencia de goles | xGD | Diferencia de goles menos xGD | Puntos | xPts | Puntos menos xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chesterfield | 7 | 16 | 16.4 | -0.4 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | +7 | 9.6 | -2.6 | 12 | 15.3 | -3.3 |
| 2 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 11 | 15.8 | -4.8 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 | +1 | 7.5 | -6.5 | 13 | 15.3 | -2.3 |
| 3 | Port Vale | 7 | 12 | 13.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | +7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | 17 | 14.4 | +2.6 |
| 4 | Grimsby Town | 7 | 13 | 15.1 | -2.1 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | +5 | 7.4 | -2.4 | 13 | 14.1 | -1.1 |
| 5 | Exeter City | 8 | 9 | 11.2 | -2.2 | 2 | 6.8 | -4.8 | +7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | 18 | 13.9 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Shrewsbury Town | 8 | 10 | 12.0 | -2.0 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 | +1 | 3.8 | -2.8 | 13 | 13.6 | -0.6 |
| 7 | Barnet | 7 | 15 | 15.0 | +0.0 | 10 | 8.6 | +1.4 | +5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 14 | 13.4 | +0.6 |
| 8 | York City | 7 | 16 | 12.7 | +3.3 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | +11 | 6.1 | +4.9 | 17 | 13.4 | +3.6 |
| 9 | Salford City | 8 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | +5 | 3.4 | +1.6 | 19 | 13.1 | +5.9 |
| 10 | Accrington Stanley | 7 | 13 | 12.2 | +0.8 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | +5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 13 | 13.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | Colchester United | 7 | 8 | 12.5 | -4.5 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 | +2 | 5.0 | -3.0 | 12 | 12.8 | -0.8 |
| 12 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | +5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 12 | 12.1 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Newport County | 7 | 14 | 11.5 | +2.5 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | +8 | 3.1 | +4.9 | 15 | 11.7 | +3.3 |
| 14 | Crewe Alexandra | 8 | 14 | 10.2 | +3.8 | 10 | 10.3 | -0.3 | +4 | -0.2 | +4.2 | 14 | 11,0 | +3.0 |
| 15 | Swindon Town | 8 | 13 | 11.6 | +1.4 | 11 | 12.6 | -1.6 | +2 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 14 | 10.5 | +3.5 |
| 16 | Tranmere Rovers | 7 | 12 | 11.8 | +0.2 | 7 | 10.7 | -3.7 | +5 | 1.0 | +4.0 | 12 | 10.4 | +1.6 |
| 17 | Northampton Town | 7 | 4 | 8.4 | -4.4 | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 | +0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 |
| 18 | Walsall | 6 | 10 | 10.9 | -0.9 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | +4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 |
| 19 | Oldham Athletic | 7 | 11 | 10.1 | +0.9 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 | +3 | 1.2 | +1.8 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 20 | Gillingham | 7 | 8 | 10.2 | -2.2 | 9 | 10.9 | -1.9 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 |
| 21 | Rochdale | 8 | 10 | 8.6 | +1.4 | 14 | 13.0 | +1.0 | -4 | -4.4 | +0.4 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 |
| 22 | Rotherham United | 7 | 13 | 9.8 | +3.2 | 15 | 11.8 | +3.2 | -2 | -2.0 | +0.0 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 |
| 23 | Cheltenham Town | 7 | 14 | 8.1 | +5.9 | 10 | 12.9 | -2.9 | +4 | -4.8 | +8.8 | 16 | 6.5 | +9.5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 6 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 12 | 12.8 | -0.8 | -6 | -5.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 |
| # | Equipo | Jugados | Goles | xG | Goles menos de xG | Goles en contra | xGA | Goles en contra menos xGA | Diferencia de goles | xGD | Diferencia de goles menos xGD | Puntos | xPts | Puntos menos xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grimsby Town | 8 | 15 | 15.9 | -0.9 | 11 | 13.6 | -2.6 | +4 | 2.2 | +1.8 | 10 | 12.6 | -2.6 |
| 2 | Chesterfield | 8 | 10 | 12.1 | -2.1 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 | -2 | 2.5 | -4.5 | 10 | 12.5 | -2.5 |
| 3 | Shrewsbury Town | 7 | 9 | 9.4 | -0.4 | 14 | 8.1 | +5.9 | -5 | 1.3 | -6.3 | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 |
| 4 | Newport County | 8 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | 13 | 10.8 | +2.2 | -5 | -2.4 | -2.6 | 4 | 10.0 | -6.0 |
| 5 | Oldham Athletic | 8 | 5 | 10.7 | -5.7 | 13 | 12.5 | +0.5 | -8 | -1.8 | -6.2 | 5 | 9.9 | -4.9 |
| 6 | Cheltenham Town | 8 | 9 | 9.8 | -0.8 | 16 | 11.7 | +4.3 | -7 | -1.9 | -5.1 | 5 | 9.9 | -4.9 |
| 7 | Rotherham United | 7 | 5 | 8.8 | -3.8 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 | -5 | 0.6 | -5.6 | 4 | 9.7 | -5.7 |
| 8 | York City | 8 | 9 | 10.3 | -1.3 | 16 | 13.1 | +2.9 | -7 | -2.8 | -4.2 | 6 | 9.7 | -3.7 |
| 9 | Salford City | 7 | 16 | 9.5 | +6.5 | 11 | 10.0 | +1.0 | +5 | -0.5 | +5.5 | 13 | 9.5 | +3.5 |
| 10 | Accrington Stanley | 8 | 12 | 9.8 | +2.2 | 13 | 13.5 | -0.5 | -1 | -3.7 | +2.7 | 6 | 9.3 | -3.3 |
| 11 | Crewe Alexandra | 7 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 | 9 | 8.5 | +0.5 | -4 | -0.7 | -3.3 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 |
| 12 | Walsall | 7 | 11 | 12.0 | -1.0 | 6 | 13.6 | -7.6 | +5 | -1.6 | +6.6 | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 |
| 13 | Crawley Town | 6 | 7 | 9.8 | -2.8 | 9 | 10.4 | -1.4 | -2 | -0.6 | -1.4 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Northampton Town | 7 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | -1 | -1.5 | +0.5 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| 15 | Barnet | 6 | 13 | 9.4 | +3.6 | 8 | 9.6 | -1.6 | +5 | -0.3 | +5.3 | 12 | 7.9 | +4.1 |
| 16 | Gillingham | 8 | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 | 12 | 13.7 | -1.7 | +0 | -5.2 | +5.2 | 11 | 7.9 | +3.1 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 7 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | 15 | 11.8 | +3.2 | -9 | -4.0 | -5.0 | 3 | 6.9 | -3.9 |
| 18 | Tranmere Rovers | 7 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 10 | 12.1 | -2.1 | -3 | -5.4 | +2.4 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 19 | Exeter City | 7 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | 7 | 11,0 | -4.0 | -4 | -4.9 | +0.9 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 |
| 20 | Fleetwood Town | 7 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | 13 | 15.4 | -2.4 | -5 | -5.9 | +0.9 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 |
| 21 | Colchester United | 7 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | 13 | 14.3 | -1.3 | -7 | -6.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 6 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 | 11 | 7.8 | +3.2 | -9 | -3.1 | -5.9 | 1 | 5.9 | -4.9 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 7 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | 13 | 12.0 | +1.0 | -6 | -6.1 | +0.1 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| 24 | Swindon Town | 7 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 10 | 15.6 | -5.6 | -7 | -10.4 | +3.4 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 |
| # | Equipo | Jugados | Goles | xG | Goles menos de xG | Goles en contra | xGA | Goles en contra menos xGA | Diferencia de goles | xGD | Diferencia de goles menos xGD | Puntos | xPts | Puntos menos xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shrewsbury Town | 5 | 10 | 9.7 | +0.3 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | +2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | Grimsby Town | 5 | 15 | 12.7 | +2.3 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | +7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 |
| 3 | Fleetwood Town | 5 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | +1 | 3.4 | -2.4 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 |
| 4 | Barnet | 5 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | +1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 |
| 5 | Chesterfield | 5 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 | +2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| 6 | Port Vale | 5 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | +3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 |
| 7 | Accrington Stanley | 5 | 12 | 6.6 | +5.4 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | +5 | 1.0 | +4.0 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 |
| 8 | Colchester United | 5 | 4 | 8.0 | -4.0 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | -2 | 1.4 | -3.4 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 |
| 9 | Northampton Town | 5 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | +0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 |
| 10 | Newport County | 5 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | +2 | 1.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 |
| 11 | Salford City | 5 | 11 | 6.9 | +4.1 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | +5 | 1.2 | +3.8 | 13 | 7.6 | +5.4 |
| 12 | Tranmere Rovers | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 5 | 7.4 | -2.4 | +2 | -0.2 | +2.2 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 13 | Exeter City | 5 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | +3 | 0.0 | +3.0 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 |
| 14 | Walsall | 5 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | 7 | 9.5 | -2.5 | +3 | -0.8 | +3.8 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 |
| 15 | Crewe Alexandra | 5 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 | 12 | 6.0 | +6.0 | -5 | -1.2 | -3.8 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 16 | Cheltenham Town | 5 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 | -3 | -1.3 | -1.7 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 17 | Crawley Town | 5 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 | -1 | -1.7 | +0.7 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 |
| 18 | Bristol Rovers | 5 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | -6 | -2.0 | -4.0 | 1 | 5.8 | -4.8 |
| 19 | York City | 5 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | -2 | -2.6 | +0.6 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 20 | Swindon Town | 5 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 10.2 | -3.2 | +0 | -3.3 | +3.3 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 |
| 21 | Oldham Athletic | 5 | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 | -4 | -2.4 | -1.6 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 |
| 22 | Gillingham | 5 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 | -6 | -3.8 | -2.2 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 15 | 9.4 | +5.6 | -9 | -3.9 | -5.1 | 1 | 4.6 | -3.6 |
| 24 | Rotherham United | 5 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | 13 | 9.2 | +3.8 | -6 | -4.3 | -1.7 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 |
Cheltenham Town es el equipo que más supera su xG en League Two en 2026/2027, con 23 goles en ocasiones por valor de 16,8 xG, una diferencia de 6,2. Le siguen Salford City, con 6,1.
Colchester United es el equipo que más se queda por debajo de su xG en League Two en 2026/2027, con 12 goles en ocasiones por valor de 18,8 xG, un déficit de 6,8. Le siguen Bristol Rovers, con 5,9.
Salford City es el equipo con más suerte en League Two en 2026/2027, con 31 puntos para un rendimiento de 21,3 xPts, 9,7 más de lo que merecían sus ocasiones. Le siguen Cheltenham Town, con 6,0.
Chesterfield es el equipo con menos suerte en League Two en 2026/2027, con 19 puntos para un rendimiento de 26,4 xPts, 7,4 menos de lo que merecía. Le siguen Rotherham United, con 6,0.
Chesterfield lideraría League Two en 2026/2027 en puntos esperados, con 26,4 xPts, a partir de 27,7 xG generados y 15,7 concedidos en 14 partidos. Le siguen Grimsby Town, con 24,7.
Grimsby Town es el equipo que más xG ha generado en League Two en 2026/2027: 28,2 en 14 partidos, 2,0 por partido frente a una media de la competición de 1,4. Le siguen Chesterfield, con 27,7.
Rochdale es el equipo que menos xG ha generado en League Two en 2026/2027: 13,3 en 14 partidos, 1,0 por partido frente a una media de la competición de 1,4. Le siguen Northampton Town, con 14,2.
Swindon Town es el equipo que más xG ha concedido en League Two en 2026/2027: 25,5 en 14 partidos, 1,8 por partido frente a una media de la competición de 1,4. Le siguen Rochdale, con 24,0.
Port Vale es el equipo que menos xG ha concedido en League Two en 2026/2027: 12,1 en doce partidos, 1,0 por partido frente a una media de la competición de 1,4. Le siguen Northampton Town, con 14,9.
Los equipos de League Two han promediado 1,42 xG por partido en 2026/2027, en los 164 partidos jugados, y han marcado 1,34 goles por partido. Está por encima de los 1,35 xG por partido de 2025/2026.
Los equipos de League Two generan más xG en casa en 2026/2027: 1,60 por partido frente a 1,24 fuera, una ventaja de local de +0,36, frente a +0,20 en 2025/2026.
La misma temporada por jugador, con los goles que marcó cada uno frente a las ocasiones que tuvo.
| # | Equipo | Jugados | Goles | xG | Goles menos xG | Goles en contra | xGA | Goles en contra menos xGA | Diferencia de goles | xGD | Diferencia de goles menos xGD | Puntos | xPts | Puntos menos xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chesterfield | 15 | 26 | 28.5 | -2.5 | 21 | 16.5 | +4.5 | +5 | 12.1 | -7.1 | 22 | 27.7 | -5.7 |
| 2 | Grimsby Town | 15 | 28 | 30.9 | -2.9 | 19 | 21.3 | -2.3 | +9 | 9.7 | -0.7 | 23 | 26.7 | -3.7 |
| 3 | Shrewsbury Town | 15 | 19 | 21.4 | -2.4 | 23 | 16.2 | +6.8 | -4 | 5.2 | -9.2 | 21 | 24.0 | -3.0 |
| 4 | York City | 15 | 25 | 23.0 | +2.0 | 21 | 19.7 | +1.3 | +4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 23 | 23.1 | -0.1 |
| 5 | Salford City | 15 | 26 | 19.8 | +6.2 | 16 | 16.8 | -0.8 | +10 | 2.9 | +7.1 | 32 | 22.6 | +9.4 |
| 6 | Accrington Stanley | 15 | 25 | 22.1 | +2.9 | 21 | 20.5 | +0.5 | +4 | 1.5 | +2.5 | 19 | 22.3 | -3.3 |
| 7 | Bristol Rovers | 15 | 17 | 23.7 | -6.7 | 25 | 20.1 | +4.9 | -8 | 3.5 | -11.5 | 16 | 22.2 | -6.2 |
| 8 | Newport County | 15 | 22 | 19.8 | +2.2 | 19 | 19.2 | -0.2 | +3 | 0.6 | +2.4 | 19 | 21.7 | -2.7 |
| 9 | Barnet | 13 | 28 | 24.4 | +3.6 | 18 | 18.3 | -0.3 | +10 | 6.1 | +3.9 | 26 | 21.3 | +4.7 |
| 10 | Port Vale | 13 | 14 | 17.9 | -3.9 | 16 | 12.7 | +3.3 | -2 | 5.2 | -7.2 | 18 | 20.3 | -2.3 |
| 11 | Exeter City | 15 | 12 | 17.3 | -5.3 | 9 | 17.9 | -8.9 | +3 | -0.5 | +3.5 | 22 | 20.2 | +1.8 |
| 12 | Oldham Athletic | 15 | 16 | 20.7 | -4.7 | 21 | 21.3 | -0.3 | -5 | -0.6 | -4.4 | 15 | 19.9 | -4.9 |
| 13 | Crewe Alexandra | 15 | 19 | 18.0 | +1.0 | 19 | 18.8 | +0.2 | +0 | -0.9 | +0.9 | 23 | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 14 | Walsall | 13 | 21 | 22.9 | -1.9 | 12 | 21.6 | -9.6 | +9 | 1.3 | +7.7 | 22 | 19.0 | +3.0 |
| 15 | Colchester United | 14 | 14 | 20.8 | -6.8 | 19 | 21.8 | -2.8 | -5 | -1.0 | -4.0 | 15 | 18.9 | -3.9 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 14 | 10 | 15.2 | -5.2 | 11 | 15.8 | -4.8 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 15 | 18.5 | -3.5 |
| 17 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 18 | 19.7 | -1.7 | 18 | 21.6 | -3.6 | +0 | -2.0 | +2.0 | 17 | 18.5 | -1.5 |
| 18 | Rotherham United | 14 | 18 | 18.7 | -0.7 | 25 | 20.1 | +4.9 | -7 | -1.4 | -5.6 | 12 | 18.0 | -6.0 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 15 | 20 | 18.7 | +1.3 | 21 | 24.6 | -3.6 | -1 | -5.9 | +4.9 | 20 | 17.5 | +2.5 |
| 20 | Tranmere Rovers | 14 | 19 | 18.4 | +0.6 | 17 | 22.8 | -5.8 | +2 | -4.4 | +6.4 | 19 | 16.9 | +2.1 |
| 21 | Cheltenham Town | 15 | 23 | 17.9 | +5.1 | 26 | 24.6 | +1.4 | -3 | -6.7 | +3.7 | 21 | 16.5 | +4.5 |
| 22 | Swindon Town | 15 | 16 | 16.8 | -0.8 | 21 | 28.2 | -7.2 | -5 | -11.4 | +6.4 | 19 | 14.3 | +4.7 |
| 23 | Crawley Town | 12 | 13 | 17.6 | -4.6 | 21 | 23.2 | -2.2 | -8 | -5.6 | -2.4 | 9 | 14.0 | -5.0 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 15 | 17 | 14.6 | +2.4 | 27 | 25.1 | +1.9 | -10 | -10.5 | +0.5 | 15 | 14.0 | +1.0 |