New Zealand vs India 4th ODI Prediction (13 Nov): Projections & Preview
New Zealand host India at the Bay Oval in Mount Maunganui on Friday for the 4th ODI of their series. First ball is at 15:00 NZDT on Friday 13 November (02:00 UK time, 07:30 IST). The series is level at 1-1 after the first three matches, with one no-result, setting up a decisive contest. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the New Zealand vs India fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Toss Prediction
The Bay Oval is a batsman’s ground. Across 7 ODIs here, the average match total stands at 555.4 with an average first-innings score of 285.8. Teams batting first have won exactly 50% of matches at this venue – no toss advantage either way. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz.
Seam bowlers have taken 72% of wickets at an economy rate of 6.39, while spinners account for 20.6% of dismissals at 5.52. New Zealand’s home record at the Bay Oval is formidable: they have won all three ODIs played here since 2021, with Daryl Mitchell scoring 121 runs across those matches and Jacob Duffy taking 5 wickets. India have not yet played an ODI at this ground.
Both sides have a marginal edge if they bowl first. New Zealand win 45.9% bowling first versus 44.6% batting first; India win 52.4% bowling first versus 51.1% batting first. The data suggests neither captain will face a decisive toss advantage.
Form and Table
New Zealand
New Zealand have mixed results in their last five matches. They suffered back-to-back defeats to India on 4 and 7 November before a no-result on 10 November, all at home. Before that, they lost twice to West Indies away in July:
- 10 Nov vs India (H): NR – No result
- 7 Nov vs India (H): L – NZ 134/10 (41), IND 113/7 (26)
- 4 Nov vs India (H): L – NZ 185/10 (40.2), IND 143/5 (22.4)
- 21 Jul vs West Indies (A): L – NZ 268/9 (50), WI 269/8 (47.3)
- 19 Jul vs West Indies (A): W – NZ 189/9 (44.1), WI 188/10 (44.4)
India
India have been the stronger side in this series. They have won their last two ODIs against New Zealand on 4 and 7 November, both away, before the no-result on 10 November. Earlier in the year they beat West Indies at home but lost one:
- 10 Nov vs New Zealand (A): NR – No result
- 7 Nov vs New Zealand (A): W – IND 113/7 (26), NZ 134/10 (41)
- 4 Nov vs New Zealand (A): W – IND 143/5 (22.4), NZ 185/10 (40.2)
- 3 Oct vs West Indies (H): L – IND 351/7 (50), WI 352/5 (48.2)
- 30 Sep vs West Indies (H): W – IND 406/2 (43.3), WI 405/7 (50)
Head-to-Head
In 20 ODI meetings between these sides, India lead 12-7 with one no-result. The most recent clash came on 7 November at Sky Stadium, Wellington, where India won by 4 runs under the Duckworth-Lewis method. Before that, India won by 5 wickets at Eden Park on 4 November, also under D/L. New Zealand’s last victory came on 18 January 2026 at Holkar Cricket Stadium, where they won by 41 runs.
Among the leading performers in their last 25 meetings, Daryl Mitchell has been New Zealand’s standout batter with 824 runs at 13 matches, while Virat Kohli leads India’s run-scorers with 1,086 runs across 21 meetings. For wickets, Kuldeep Yadav has taken 27 in just 6 matches for India, a remarkable strike rate that remains a key threat.
Statz Projections and Projected Score
The Statz projections favour India slightly across both scenarios.
If New Zealand bat first: Projected first-innings total of 323.1, match total of 625.3. Win probability – NZ 44.6%, India 52.4%, tie/NR 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 265 to 374.
If India bat first: Projected first-innings total of 326.4, match total of 628.2. Win probability – NZ 45.9%, India 51.1%, tie/NR 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 276 to 376.
The projected match total of 627 is 71.6 runs above the Bay Oval average of 555.4, suggesting the Statz model expects a high-scoring contest. Both projected first-innings totals sit well above the ground average of 285.8, indicating strong batting conditions ahead.
Season Leaders
New Zealand (One Day Internationals 2026)
Runs: Daryl Mitchell – 556 runs, 61.78 a match, HS 137 | Will Young – 371 runs, 26.5 a match, HS 87 | Henry Nicholls – 255 runs, 18.21 a match, HS 68
Wickets: Jayden Lennox – 22 wickets, 2.2 a match, best 5 | Jacob Duffy – 11 wickets, 1.38 a match, best 3 | Kyle Jamieson – 10 wickets, 1.67 a match, best 4
India (One Day Internationals 2026)
Runs: Shubman Gill – 932 runs, 62.13 a match, HS 223 | Virat Kohli – 633 runs, 52.75 a match, HS 139 | Rohit Sharma – 627 runs, 41.8 a match, HS 138
Wickets: Gurnoor Brar – 21 wickets, 1.75 a match, best 4 | Prasidh Krishna – 16 wickets, 1.78 a match, best 5 | Arshdeep Singh – 12 wickets, 1.71 a match, best 4
Predicted XIs
New Zealand (based on XI vs India, 7 Nov 2026)
- Will Young
- Tim Seifert (wk)
- Henry Nicholls
- Daryl Mitchell
- Tom Latham (wk)
- Glenn Phillips
- Mitchell Santner (c)
- Nathan Smith
- Kyle Jamieson
- Blair Tickner
- Jacob Duffy
India (based on XI vs New Zealand, 7 Nov 2026)
- Rohit Sharma
- Shubman Gill (c)
- Virat Kohli
- Shreyas Iyer
- Axar Patel
- Lokesh Rahul (wk)
- Naman Dhir
- Anshul Kamboj
- Auqib Nabi
- Gurnoor Brar
- Arshdeep Singh
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks
Captain: Shubman Gill (India) – projected 126 points. The India captain has been the standout batter this cycle with 932 runs at 62.13 a match. His projected 65.9 runs with the bat make him the safest captaincy choice.
Vice Captain: Rohit Sharma (India) – projected 125.4 points. India’s senior opener has 627 runs at 41.8 a match this cycle and is projected for 62.3 runs in this fixture, offering consistent fantasy value.
Also consider:
- Daryl Mitchell (NZ) – projected 111.8 points – 556 season runs at 61.78 a match, the leading run-scorer for New Zealand
- Virat Kohli (India) – projected 101.3 points – 633 season runs at 52.75 a match, a proven match-winner
- Jayden Lennox (NZ) – projected 101+ points – 22 wickets this cycle at 2.2 a match, New Zealand’s leading bowler
Key Players
Shubman Gill (India)
Gill has been India’s standout performer this cycle with 932 runs at 62.13 a match, including a high score of 223. He sits top of the competition’s run-scoring charts. His 20+ run hit rate stands at 73.3% for the season, though it has dipped to 40% in his last five matches. Against New Zealand, he has scored 737 runs across 15 ODI meetings. His captaincy and batting form make him central to India’s chances.
Daryl Mitchell (New Zealand)
Mitchell is New Zealand’s leading run-scorer this cycle with 556 runs at 61.78 a match, the highest average among his teammates. He has a 20+ run hit rate of 88.9% this season and has scored 824 runs across 13 ODI meetings with India. His last three scores of 28, 28 and 55 show a player finding form at the right time. At the Bay Oval, he has scored 121 runs across New Zealand’s three home matches here.
Kuldeep Yadav (India)
The left-arm wrist-spinner remains India’s most potent bowling weapon in ODI cricket. Across 25 recent meetings with New Zealand, Kuldeep has taken 27 wickets in just 6 matches – a strike rate that is simply devastating. His 1+ wicket hit rate stands at 85.7% this cycle. He is a genuine match-winner who can dismantle any batting lineup on his day.
Jayden Lennox (New Zealand)
Lennox has been New Zealand’s leading bowler this cycle with 22 wickets at 2.2 a match. He has taken at least one wicket in every single match this season – a 100% hit rate. His last three returns of 4, 1 and 3 wickets show consistency, and his 2+ wicket hit rate stands at 60%. He will be crucial to New Zealand’s chances of restricting India’s batting.
Conditions
Clear skies are forecast for the Bay Oval with temperatures around 22 degrees at the start and humidity at 63%. No rain is expected. Wind will be moderate at 21 km/h from the north-west – conditions that may offer some assistance to the seam bowlers early on.
Who Will Win New Zealand vs India?
India are slight favourites. The Statz model gives India a 51.8% win probability to New Zealand’s 45.3%, with 3% for a tie or no-result. This is a lean edge rather than a strong conviction, reflecting how competitive this series has been. India’s form – two wins in the last three completed matches – combined with their superior batting depth gives them the edge, but New Zealand’s home advantage and strong record at the Bay Oval keeps this contest tight.
The bookmakers agree. Indicative odds have New Zealand at 2.375 and India at around 1.60-1.70 depending on the book.
Betting Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture:
- Rohit Sharma 50+ Runs – Indicative odds 2.75 on Boylesports. Rohit has a 66.7% season hit rate for 20+ runs and is projected for 62.3 runs in this match. A strong value play at these odds.
- Shubman Gill 20+ Runs – 73.3% season hit rate. The India captain is projected for 65.9 runs and has been the most consistent batter in this series.
- Jayden Lennox 1+ Wicket – 100% season hit rate. New Zealand’s leading bowler has taken a wicket in every match this cycle.
- Kuldeep Yadav 1+ Wicket – 85.7% season hit rate. The left-arm wrist-spinner’s strike rate against New Zealand is exceptional.
New Zealand vs India Prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win New Zealand vs India?
A: India are slight favourites at 51.8% win probability to New Zealand’s 45.3%, with 3% for a tie or no-result. India’s form and batting depth give them the edge, but New Zealand’s home advantage at the Bay Oval keeps this tight.
Q: What is the projected score in this match?
A: The projected match total is 627 runs, 71.6 above the Bay Oval average of 555.4. If New Zealand bat first, expect around 323 runs in their innings; if India bat first, around 326 runs.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: There is no toss advantage at the Bay Oval. Teams batting first have won 50% of matches here. Both captains will face a marginal edge if they bowl first, but the difference is negligible.
Q: Is India a good bet at their current odds?
A: India’s 51.8% win probability sits close to their indicative odds of around 1.60-1.70, suggesting fair value. The lean edge reflects how competitive this series has been, so back them only if you see better odds elsewhere.
