Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas – MLC 2026 | Statz

Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas – MLC 2026 Preview

Third-placed Washington Freedom take on sixth-placed Seattle Orcas at Oakland Coliseum on Thursday in Major League Cricket 2026. Both sides sit on 2 points but Freedom have a game in hand and a crucial home advantage at a venue where they have won two of three matches. First ball is at 7:00 AM IST (2:30 AM BST) on June 26. Full match data and projections are available on the Statz fixture page.

The Venue

Oakland Coliseum has been a batting paradise in T20 cricket. Across 9 matches, the average first-innings score is 193.6 and bat-first sides have won 67% of decided games. Match totals average 341.8 runs with 22.9 sixes and 24.3 fours per game – boundaries account for 68.7% of runs scored. Pace bowlers go at 9.32 an over but claim 70.3% of wickets, while spin is slightly more economical at 8.86 but accounts for just 25% of dismissals. The highest total here is 269 and the lowest is 145 – expect runs, but chasing teams have struggled with an average second-innings score of just 148.2. The most recent game at this ground saw MI New York chase down Seattle Orcas’ 200/5 with 7 wickets in hand (19 Jun 2025).

Form and Table

Washington Freedom (3rd – P2 W1 L1, 2 pts) opened the campaign with a thumping 30-run win over MI New York, posting 245/5 before restricting MINY to 215/6. Their only loss came against Seattle Orcas, bowled out for 216 in a 5-wicket defeat on 20 June.

Last 2 results: W (245/5 beat MINY 215/6), L (216/10 lost to SO 219/5)

Seattle Orcas (6th – P3 W1 L2, 2 pts) have been inconsistent. They chased down 216 against Freedom in their sole win but were skittled for 115 against Los Angeles Knight Riders and lost despite posting 220/2 against Texas Super Kings, who overhauled the target with 9 balls to spare.

Last 3 results: L (115/10 lost to LAKR 196/10), W (219/5 beat WSF 216/10), L (220/2 lost to TSK 221/4)

MLC 2026 Standings (Top 4):

Both teams still have plenty of fixtures remaining and a win here could shift the picture significantly.

Head-to-Head

These sides have met 5 times since 2023 (Statz data). Washington Freedom lead 3-2 overall. The last meeting was on 20 June 2026 at Grand Prairie Stadium, where Seattle Orcas won by 5 wickets – chasing down 216 with 14 balls remaining (SO 219/5 vs WSF 216/10).

At Oakland Coliseum specifically, there has been one previous meeting – Freedom won by 5 wickets in June 2025, chasing 145 with ease (WSF 149/5 vs SO 145/9). Freedom have a strong record at this ground with 2 wins from 3 matches, while the Orcas are yet to win at Oakland in 3 attempts.

Statz Projections

The Statz projections heavily favour Washington Freedom in this contest.

If Freedom bat first: WSF win probability 72.8%. Projected first innings 201.8 (P10: 173, P90: 231). Projected match total 371.9 (P10: 315, P90: 425).

If Orcas bat first: WSF win probability 67.7%. Projected first innings 176 (P10: 125, P90: 218). Projected match total 346.7 (P10: 255, P90: 419).

That projected first innings of 201.8 when Freedom bat first sits above the venue average of 193.6 – no surprise given the firepower in their top order. The P90 of 231 suggests a genuine ceiling above 230 is in play. When the Orcas bat first, projections drop sharply to 176, well below the ground average, reflecting the inconsistency in their lineup.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap (Top Run-Scorers):

1. Mitchell Owen (WSF) – 216 runs in 2 innings
2. Tim Seifert (SO) – 187 runs in 3 innings
3. Lhuan-dre Pretorius (SFU) – 127 runs in 2 innings
4. Faf du Plessis (TSK) – 119 runs in 2 innings
5. Kieron Pollard (MINY) – 107 runs in 2 innings

Purple Cap (Top Wicket-Takers):

1. Ottneil Baartman (SO) – 8 wickets in 3 innings
2. Jasdeep Singh (SO) – 6 wickets in 3 innings
3. Peter Siddle (SFU) – 5 wickets in 2 innings
4. Dasun Shanaka (SO) – 5 wickets in 3 innings
5. Corbin Bosch (MINY) – 5 wickets in 2 innings

Washington Freedom season leaders: Mitchell Owen leads the batting with 216 runs at 108.0 (HS 155). Ian Holland and Saurabh Netravalkar share the bowling lead with 3 wickets each.

Seattle Orcas season leaders: Tim Seifert tops the runs with 187 at 62.3 (HS 104). Ottneil Baartman has been superb with the ball – 8 wickets at 2.67 per innings (best 4).

Predicted XIs

Based on the most recent match on 21 June 2026. Check the Statz fixture page for toss and any late changes.

Washington Freedom (vs MI New York, 21 Jun): Steven Smith (c), Andries Gous (wk), Mark Chapman, Glenn Maxwell, Jack Edwards, Obus Pienaar, Ian Holland, Mitchell Owen, Marco Jansen, Saurabh Netravalkar, Asif Mehmood

Seattle Orcas (vs Los Angeles Knight Riders, 21 Jun): Tim Seifert (wk), Shayan Jahangir, Shimron Hetmyer, Marcus Stoinis (c), Matthew Breetzke, Dasun Shanaka, Harmeet Singh, Ali Sheikh, Cameron Gannon, Jasdeep Singh, Ottneil Baartman

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Captain: Mitchell Owen (WSF) – projected 30.2 runs and 0.46 wickets. Owen is the competition’s leading run-scorer with 216 runs in just 2 innings, including a brutal 155. At a batting paradise like Oakland, the ceiling is enormous.

Vice Captain: Ottneil Baartman (SO) – projected 2.11 wickets. The competition’s leading wicket-taker with 8 scalps in 3 innings and a 100% hit rate for 1+ wickets this season. Even in a losing cause, Baartman delivers fantasy points through the ball.

Top 3 picks to consider: Steven Smith (projected 42.8 runs), Jasdeep Singh (projected 1.49 wickets, 100% 1+ wicket hit rate), Jack Edwards (projected 14.7 runs and 1.24 wickets – genuine all-round value).

Key Players

Mitchell Owen (WSF) – The tournament’s leading run-scorer with 216 runs in 2 innings at an average of 108. His 155 against Seattle Orcas on 20 June shows he can take any attack apart. At Oakland Coliseum where top-order batters have been the highest scorers in 8 of 9 matches, Owen is the most dangerous player on either side.

Ottneil Baartman (SO) – The Purple Cap holder with 8 wickets in 3 innings – a 100% hit rate for 1+ wickets and a 66.7% rate for 2+ wickets this season. Even at a batting-heavy venue, Baartman has shown he can find ways through. He offers genuine bet builder value with the Statz bet builder.

Tim Seifert (SO) – The Orcas’ leading scorer with 187 runs at 62.3, including a century. His 66.7% hit rate for 20+ runs and 66.7% for 30+ runs make him the most reliable batting option in the Seattle lineup.

Glenn Maxwell (WSF) – Freedom’s all-time top scorer at Oakland Coliseum with 149 runs in 3 matches. Maxwell also offers off-spin (projected 0.45 wickets) and is a match-winner on his day. Projected 17.9 runs batting in the middle order.

Conditions

Clear skies at Oakland Coliseum with the temperature around 18 degrees Celsius, humidity at 65% and a light wind at 6.2 km/h – no weather concerns for this fixture.

Verdict and Betting Angles

Verdict: Washington Freedom should win this. They are projected at 73% if they bat first and 68% even if they chase. Freedom’s top order – Smith, Owen, Chapman – is arguably the strongest in MLC 2026, and their record at Oakland (2 wins from 3) dwarfs Seattle’s (0 from 3). The Orcas have batting talent through Seifert and Stoinis but their bowling has leaked runs consistently, with an average of 217 runs conceded per match.

Match odds: Washington Freedom 1.73 (Midnite) / 1.80 (Ladbrokes). Seattle Orcas 2.00 (Midnite) / 2.10 (Ladbrokes).

Betting angles from the Statz bet builder:

• Ottneil Baartman 1+ wickets – 100% hit rate this season (3/3 innings). The Purple Cap holder has delivered at least one wicket in every match.
• Jasdeep Singh 1+ wickets – 100% hit rate this season (3/3 innings). Alongside Baartman, Singh has been Seattle’s most reliable wicket-taker with 6 scalps.
• Tim Seifert 20+ runs – 66.7% hit rate this season. The keeper-batter has passed 20 in two of three innings, including a century.
• Match total over 340 runs – The venue average is 341.8 and the Statz model projects 371.9 if Freedom bat first. High-scoring games are the norm here.