Warwickshire vs Worcestershire Preview – Blast 2026 | Statz

Warwickshire host Worcestershire at Edgbaston on Friday in a T20 Blast 2026 Midlands derby with both sides at different ends of the table. First ball is at 23:30 IST (19:00 BST).

Warwickshire sit 17th with just one win from six matches (4 pts) – the second-worst record in the competition. Worcestershire are 10th with three wins from six (12 pts), right in the mix for qualification. Despite their terrible form, Warwickshire are favourites at home – check the full data on the Warwickshire vs Worcestershire fixture page on Statz.

The Venue – Edgbaston, Birmingham

Edgbaston is tagged as a balanced pitch. Across the last 30 T20s here (since Jul 2023), the average first innings score is 174.0 and the average match total is 328.3. Teams batting first have won just 47% of decided games, making the toss less of a factor here than at other grounds.

Pace bowlers go at 8.81 economy while spinners are slightly more economical at 8.35 – a tighter split than most venues. The boundary percentage is 57.0%. The highest total recorded here is 240 and the lowest is 106.

The most recent T20 here saw Northamptonshire chase down 209 against Warwickshire on 31 May (NOR 209/4 chasing WAR 208/7) – a high-scoring match well above the ground average.

Form and Table

Warwickshire (17th – P6 W1 L5 – 4 pts)

Warwickshire have been dreadful. One win from six and five defeats on the bounce before that solitary victory against Somerset. They have struggled to defend totals and their bowling has leaked runs consistently.

• 07 Jun – W vs Somerset: SOM posted 215/4, WAR chased 216/4 in 19.4 overs (away)
• 05 Jun – L vs Nottinghamshire: WAR posted 139/10, NOT chased 143/7 in 19.5 overs (away)
• 31 May – L vs Northamptonshire: WAR posted 208/7, NOR chased 209/4 in 19.2 overs (home)
• 29 May – L vs Worcestershire: WAR posted 141/10, WOR chased 142/4 in 18.5 overs (away)
• 24 May – L vs Somerset: WAR posted 189/5, SOM chased 193/3 in 18.2 overs (home)

Worcestershire (10th – P6 W3 L3 – 12 pts)

Worcestershire have been streaky – three wins and three defeats. Back-to-back defeats to Northamptonshire and Gloucestershire have slowed their momentum, but they showed fight to beat Glamorgan and Warwickshire earlier in the campaign.

• 09 Jun – L vs Northamptonshire: NOR 162/4, WOR 154/5 (away)
• 07 Jun – L vs Gloucestershire: GLO 148/7, WOR 145/10 (away)
• 05 Jun – W vs Glamorgan: WOR posted 168/8, GLA bowled out for 141/10 (home)
• 29 May – W vs Warwickshire: WAR 141/10, WOR chased 142/4 in 18.5 overs (home)
• 24 May – L vs Northamptonshire: NOR posted 191/10, WOR bowled out for 91/10 (home)

Top 4 (qualification places):

Both teams have 8 games remaining including this match. Worcestershire are still very much in the qualification picture, while Warwickshire’s campaign is in serious trouble.

Head-to-Head

These two have met 9 times since 2022 (Statz data), and Warwickshire lead 6-3 overall. It has been a lopsided rivalry with Warwickshire dominating especially at Edgbaston, winning 3 of 4 meetings at this venue.

The last meeting was on 29 May 2026 at New Road – Worcestershire winning by 6 wickets (WAR 141/10, WOR 142/4). That was a rare victory for the visitors in this fixture and adds spice to the return match.

Warwickshire’s all-time record at Edgbaston vs Worcestershire: W3, L1 in 4 matches since 2022. Worcestershire’s overall record at Edgbaston is poor – just 1 win from 4 visits (since 2021).

Statz Projections

Statz modelling makes Warwickshire favourites in both toss scenarios. View the full projections breakdown on Statz.

If Warwickshire bat first: Warwickshire win 54.0%, Worcestershire win 44.0%. Projected first innings 201.1, match total 383.5 (P10: 328, P90: 435).

If Worcestershire bat first: Warwickshire win 57.9%, Worcestershire win 40.1%. Projected first innings 193.5, match total 376.5 (P10: 307, P90: 435).

These projected totals are significantly above the venue average of 328.3, driven by the firepower in both lineups. The model projects a first innings of 193.5-201.1 – well above Edgbaston’s average of 174.0. This could be a high-scoring match. Warwickshire being favoured to win at 54-58% despite their terrible form reflects the individual quality in their squad and their strong h2h record.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap – Top Run Scorers:

1. Beau Webster (Warwickshire) – 288 runs in 6 innings
2. George Munsey (Nottinghamshire) – 251 runs in 6 innings
3. Jonny Bairstow (Yorkshire) – 250 runs in 6 innings
4. Chris Lynn (Northamptonshire) – 245 runs in 6 innings
5. Martin Andersson (Derbyshire) – 237 runs in 6 innings

Purple Cap – Top Wicket Takers:

1. Duan Jansen (Lancashire) – 16 wkts in 6 innings
2. James Sales (Northamptonshire) – 16 wkts in 6 innings
3. Adam Finch (Worcestershire) – 12 wkts in 6 innings
4. Scott Currie (Hampshire) – 12 wkts in 6 innings
5. Mohammad Ali (Nottinghamshire) – 12 wkts in 6 innings

Warwickshire Season Leaders:
Runs – Beau Webster 288 runs (avg 48.00, HS 112), Robert Yates 148 (avg 24.67, HS 45), Sam Hain 96 (avg 24.00, HS 52).
Wickets – Usman Tariq 6 wkts (best 2/match), Jordan Thompson 5, Oliver Hannon-Dalby 4.

Worcestershire Season Leaders:
Runs – Sikandar Raza 161 runs (avg 26.83, HS 47), Kashif Ali 120 (avg 20.00, HS 38), Adam Hose 119 (avg 19.83, HS 50).
Wickets – Adam Finch 12 wkts (best 3/match), Matthew Waite 8, Usama Mir 8.

Predicted XIs

Warwickshire (based on XI vs Somerset, 07 Jun 2026):
Robert Yates, Zen Malik, Dan Mousley, Beau Webster, Ed Barnard (c), Kai Smith, Alex Davies (wk), Jordan Thompson, Chris Woakes, Richard Gleeson, Usman Tariq.

Worcestershire (based on XI vs Northamptonshire, 09 Jun 2026):
Kashif Ali, Brett D’Oliveira (c), Gareth Roderick (wk), Adam Hose, Sikandar Raza, Ethan Brookes, Henry Cullen, Usama Mir, Tom Taylor, Ben Allison, Adam Finch.

Note: Always check the fixture page on Statz for confirmed XIs after the toss.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Captain: Beau Webster – The tournament’s leading run scorer with 288 runs at avg 48.00 and a high score of 112. Projected 31.7 runs per innings across both scenarios plus 0.37 wickets. His ceiling is the highest in the match – when he fires, the 2x Captain multiplier will maximise your Dream11 score.

Vice Captain: Jordan Thompson – Warwickshire’s all-rounder projects 14.5 runs plus 1.31 wickets per match. His consistent contributions with both bat and ball make him a reliable high-floor pick.

Other picks to consider:

• Dan Mousley – Projected 22.9 runs + 0.67 wickets, strong batting all-rounder
• Sikandar Raza – Projected 19.4 runs + 0.81 wickets, international-calibre all-rounder
• Adam Finch – 1.48 projected wickets, 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket this season

Key Players

Beau Webster (Warwickshire)
The Australian all-rounder is the form player of the entire T20 Blast. Tournament-leading 288 runs at avg 48.00 with a century (HS 112) already this season. His 20+ runs hit rate of 66.7% (80% in his last 5) shows consistent output, and he chips in with off-spin too. If Warwickshire are going to win, Webster needs to deliver again.

Adam Finch (Worcestershire)
Joint-third on the Purple Cap with 12 wickets in 6 matches. The fast bowler has taken at least one wicket in every match this season – a 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket. His ability to strike early and at the death makes him Worcestershire’s most valuable bowler.

Sikandar Raza (Worcestershire)
The Zimbabwe international brings genuine all-round quality with 161 runs at avg 26.83 plus 0.81 projected wickets per match. His 20+ runs hit rate of 66.7% this season gives bet builder confidence, and his off-spin could be crucial on a balanced Edgbaston surface.

Chris Woakes (Warwickshire)
The England international adds big-match experience at his home ground. Projected 7.2 runs plus 1.0 wickets per match, Woakes brings control and knowledge of Edgbaston conditions that few can match.

Conditions

Warm conditions in Birmingham with temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius at the start and 37% humidity. Wind is light at 4.4 km/h. Partly cloudy skies with 75% cloud cover but no rain expected – a full match should be completed without interruption.

Verdict and Betting Angles

This is an intriguing contest. Warwickshire’s record this season (W1 L5) is awful, but the model still favours them at 54-58% thanks to individual quality – Beau Webster, Chris Woakes, and Dan Mousley give them serious firepower. Their h2h dominance (6-3 overall, 3-1 at Edgbaston) and home advantage support the pick.

Live bet365 odds: Warwickshire 1.68, Worcestershire 11/10 (2.10).

The model and the bookmakers agree – Warwickshire are slight favourites. The 1.68 price offers some value given their individual talent, but their leaky bowling is a concern. Worcestershire have the bowling to restrict totals through Adam Finch and Usama Mir.

Bet builder angles – build your own at the Statz bet builder:

• Adam Finch 1+ wicket – 100% hit rate this season across all 6 matches. The safest bowling angle in this game.
• Beau Webster 20+ runs – 66.7% season hit rate (80% in last 5). The tournament’s top scorer is the most reliable batting pick.
• Usama Mir 1+ wicket – 83.3% season hit rate. The leg-spinner takes wickets consistently and Edgbaston’s spin economy of 8.35 will suit him.
• Robert Yates 20+ runs – 66.7% season hit rate (80% in last 5). The opener has been getting starts consistently at the top of the order.