The Hundred 2026: Who Does Statz Cricket Think Will Win It?

The Oval Invincibles are gone. Over the winter, Reliance — the family behind the Mumbai Indians — bought a 49% stake in the most successful franchise The Hundred has produced, and the team that has won the last three titles turned up for 2026 with a new badge on the shirt: MI London. New name. Same old story.

Because when we ran our League Probability model over the men’s competition — 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations of all 32 group games and the knockouts — it arrived at the conclusion the honours board already tells you. The champions are the team to beat. Here is what the numbers make of all eight sides.

The format, and the new names

Eight teams, one group, 100 balls a side. Each plays eight matches, and the top three go through: second host third in the Eliminator, and the winner travels to meet the table-topper in the Final. It is a format that rewards consistency over a hot fortnight — you cannot sneak in through a soft group, because there is only one.

Three of the eight arrive under new names after last year’s equity sale brought franchise investors in. Oval Invincibles are now MI London; Manchester Originals become the Manchester Super Giants; Northern Superchargers are Sunrisers Leeds. New ownership, new branding — but the same eight-team scramble for three playoff places.

MI London: going for four

Start with the favourites, because the model does not hedge here. MI London come out on top in 19.0% of simulations, make the playoffs in 47.3% and finish top of the group in 17.7% — clear daylight to everyone else on all three counts. No other side wins it more than 13.7% of the time.

The pedigree backs it up. As the Invincibles, this franchise won in 2023, 2024 and 2025; nobody else in the competition has lifted it more than once, and along the way in 2025 they posted the highest team total in the men’s competition’s history, 226 against Welsh Fire. The core that did it is largely intact. Sam Curran captains, Will Jacks (275 runs last summer) sets the tone up top, and the overseas cupboard is frankly unfair — Trent Boult with the new ball, Rashid Khan through the middle, Nicholas Pooran and Sherfane Rutherford to finish. The name is new. The machine is not.

The chasing pack

Here is where The Hundred gets interesting, because behind MI London the model sees a genuine muddle. From second to fifth, four sides are separated by barely two points — this is the tightest the competition has ever projected.

Trent Rockets (13.7%) head it. The 2022 champions have quietly built the deepest batting order in the tournament: Sam Billings behind the stumps and in charge, Ben Duckett and Tom Banton (257 runs in 2025) up top, Tim David and Mitchell Santner for muscle, Matt Henry and Mohammad Amir with the ball. If the model has anyone as MI London’s most likely challenger, it is these.

Birmingham Phoenix (13.2%) are the nearly-men — 2021 finalists, never winners. Jacob Bethell captains a young, dangerous side; Joe Clarke made 229 last summer and Rehan Ahmed arrives from Trent Rockets, where his 12 wickets in 2025 were among the competition’s best. Mustafizur Rahman gives them a genuine death-overs point of difference.

Southern Brave (12.5%) have the tournament’s most feared bowler in Jofra Archer, and around him a battery — Chris Jordan, Adil Rashid, and Marcus Stoinis, who crossed from Trent Rockets. David Miller and Tristan Stubbs supply the overseas power. Champions in 2021, and never a soft draw.

Sunrisers Leeds (11.7%), the artist formerly known as Northern Superchargers, may have the best top three nobody is talking about: Zak Crawley (captain, 280 runs in 2025) and Harry Brook either side of Australia’s Mitchell Marsh. They have never won it. On this batting, the model thinks they are closer than their history suggests.

Best of the rest

Manchester Super Giants (10.3%) are the puzzle. On paper the batting is an all-star XI — Jos Buttler (283 runs last summer), South Africa’s Aiden Markram in charge and Heinrich Klaasen at six — with Josh Tongue, whose 14 wickets led the competition last summer, and the Afghan wrist-spinner Noor Ahmad to bowl at them. Yet the model has them mid-table. Star names win headlines; this side has never won the competition, and the simulations want to see it before they believe it.

Welsh Fire (10.1%) are the perennial wooden-spoon candidates — five seasons, no Finals Day — and yet a top order that should worry people: Phil Salt captaining, Joe Root for class, Rachin Ravindra and Marco Jansen from overseas, and Jordan Cox, who made 367 runs last summer to lead the whole competition before signing from MI London. If the model is wrong about anyone, Cardiff will tell you it is them.

The outsider

Which leaves London Spirit (9.6%) propping up the projections — a curious place for the most valuable franchise in the competition, valued at £295m in last year’s sale. The talent is there: Liam Livingstone captains, Jonny Bairstow arrives from Welsh Fire off 248 runs, Jamie Overton and David Willey add all-round nous, and Dewald Brevis and Adam Zampa bring the overseas flair. Money and names have never guaranteed a low seed stays low, and someone usually makes a mockery of a number like this. But the model has to call it, and it calls the Spirit last.

The full picture

Every side, ranked by the model’s title probability — from MI London’s 19% down to London Spirit’s 9.6%. The live League Probability page updates these after every result.

What the numbers mean

These are pre-tournament estimates, built from team ratings before a ball has been bowled. The League Probability model re-runs its 5,000 simulations after every completed match, so the picture will move fast once results land — and with a chasing pack this tight, it will not take much. The one number to watch is MI London’s: a slow start, and seven sides are close enough to pounce.

For now, the model’s verdict is the same one the last three summers delivered. New name on the shirt, same team to beat — but the closest field The Hundred has ever lined up behind them. Follow it live on the League Probability page →