Sussex vs Surrey Preview – T20 Blast 2026 | Statz

Sussex host Surrey at the County Ground, Hove on Friday in a T20 Blast 2026 clash with both teams needing wins to climb the table. First ball is at 23:30 IST (19:00 BST).

Sussex sit 13th with just two wins from six matches (8 pts), while Surrey are 6th with three wins from six (12 pts). Surrey will fancy their chances given their dominant record in this fixture, but the hosts are coming off a confidence-boosting win against Kent. Full match data and live projections available on the Sussex vs Surrey fixture page on Statz.

The Venue – County Ground, Hove

The County Ground is tagged as a batting paradise. Across the last 30 T20s here (since May 2022), the average first innings score is 181.2 and the average match total is 341.3. Teams batting first have won 57% of decided games – a clear advantage for winning the toss and posting a total.

Pace bowlers go at 9.27 economy while spinners are more economical at 8.01. The boundary percentage sits at 58.4%, confirming the short boundaries favour aggressive shot-making. The highest total here is 258 and the lowest is 114.

The most recent T20 here saw Sussex chase down 134 against Kent on 07 Jun (135/3 chasing 133/8) – a lower-scoring affair by this ground’s standards.

Form and Table

Sussex (13th – P6 W2 L4 – 8 pts)

Sussex have lost four of their last five. Their only recent win came against Kent at home, but defeats to Leicestershire, Hampshire, Middlesex, and Kent away paint a bleak picture.

• 07 Jun – W vs Kent: Chased 134 successfully, 135/3 in 17.2 overs (home)
• 05 Jun – L vs Leicestershire: Posted 179/10, LEI chased 180/6 in 17.4 overs (home)
• 02 Jun – L vs Hampshire: HAM posted 173/6, SUS bowled out for 144 chasing (away)
• 30 May – L vs Middlesex: MID posted 213/4, SUS fell short at 182/10 (home)
• 25 May – L vs Kent: SUS posted 197/6, KEN chased 199/3 in 18.2 overs (away)

Surrey (6th – P6 W3 L3 – 12 pts)

Surrey are equally inconsistent with three wins and three defeats. Both wins came against Middlesex, while they have dropped matches to Hampshire (twice) and Kent.

• 05 Jun – L vs Hampshire: HAM posted 215/5, SUR fell short at 210/7 (home)
• 03 Jun – W vs Middlesex: MID posted 129/7, SUR chased 134/2 in 14.1 overs (home)
• 31 May – L vs Kent: SUR posted 116/10, KEN chased 118/2 in 14 overs (home)
• 29 May – L vs Hampshire: SUR posted 174/8, HAM chased 177/5 in 19.1 overs (away)
• 24 May – W vs Middlesex: MID posted 143/8, SUR chased 144/4 in 18.3 overs (away)

Top 4 (qualification places):

Both teams have 8 games remaining including this match. Surrey need consistency to stay in the qualification conversation, while Sussex need to string together wins quickly.

Head-to-Head

These two have met 8 times since 2022 (Statz data), and Surrey lead 5-3 overall. The visitors have been dominant at the County Ground specifically, winning 3 of 4 matches here.

The last meeting was on 18 Jul 2025 at this venue – Surrey winning by 7 runs (SUR 204/5, SUS 197/7) in a match that produced 401 runs, well above the ground average.

Surrey’s all-time record at County Ground: W3, L1 in 4 visits (since 2021). Sussex’s home record across all opponents is a poor 12 wins from 32 matches here.

Statz Projections

Statz modelling gives Surrey the edge regardless of the toss. View the full projections breakdown on Statz.

If Sussex bat first: Sussex win 40.2%, Surrey win 57.8%. Projected first innings 171.5, match total 334.5 (P10: 274, P90: 385).

If Surrey bat first: Sussex win 40.9%, Surrey win 57.1%. Projected first innings 179.6, match total 342.5 (P10: 296, P90: 386).

The projected first innings (171.5-179.6) sits slightly below the venue average of 181.2, suggesting the model accounts for Sussex’s inconsistent batting. The projected match total range (334.5-342.5) tracks the ground average of 341.3 closely. Surrey’s batting power – if they bat first – pushes the projected total higher at 179.6.

Competition Season Leaders

Orange Cap – Top Run Scorers:

1. Beau Webster (Warwickshire) – 288 runs in 6 innings
2. George Munsey (Nottinghamshire) – 251 runs in 6 innings
3. Jonny Bairstow (Yorkshire) – 250 runs in 6 innings
4. Chris Lynn (Northamptonshire) – 245 runs in 6 innings
5. Martin Andersson (Derbyshire) – 237 runs in 6 innings

Purple Cap – Top Wicket Takers:

1. Duan Jansen (Lancashire) – 16 wkts in 6 innings
2. James Sales (Northamptonshire) – 16 wkts in 6 innings
3. Adam Finch (Worcestershire) – 12 wkts in 6 innings
4. Scott Currie (Hampshire) – 12 wkts in 6 innings
5. Mohammad Ali (Nottinghamshire) – 12 wkts in 6 innings

Sussex Season Leaders:
Runs – Daniel Hughes 181 runs (avg 30.17, HS 44), John Simpson 138 (avg 23.00, HS 63), Tom Clark 122 (avg 40.67, HS 79).
Wickets – Tymal Mills 10 wkts (best 3/match), Danny Briggs 6, Sean Hunt 5.

Surrey Season Leaders:
Runs – Sam Curran 168 runs (avg 28.00, HS 71), Jason Roy 143 (avg 23.83, HS 46), Daniel Lawrence 136 (avg 22.67, HS 94).
Wickets – Reece Topley 10 wkts (best 2/match), Tom Curran 7, Yousef Majid 5.

Predicted XIs

Sussex (based on XI vs Kent, 07 Jun 2026):
Harrison Ward, Daniel Hughes, Jack Leaning, John Simpson (wk), Oliver Carter, Tom Alsop, Danny Lamb, Henry Crocombe, Danny Briggs, Tymal Mills (c), Sean Hunt.

Surrey (based on squad vs Hampshire, 05 Jun 2026):
Jason Roy, Will Jacks, Ollie Pope (wk), Sam Curran (c), Daniel Lawrence, Laurie Evans, Tom Curran, Jordan Clark, Chris Jordan, Reece Topley, Sean Abbott.

Note: Surrey named a 12-player squad in their last match with Seb Stuart-Reckling also included. Always check the fixture page on Statz for confirmed XIs after the toss.

Dream11 Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

Captain: Sam Curran – The Surrey skipper is the standout Dream11 pick. Projected 26.6 runs across scenarios plus 0.87 wickets per match gives him elite all-round fantasy value. His left-arm pace and middle-order hitting combine for reliable points.

Vice Captain: Will Jacks – Projected 31.1 runs per innings with explosive boundary potential (2.8 projected fours, 1.65 projected sixes). Has 181 runs at County Ground in Blast cricket and adds off-spin wickets as a bonus.

Other picks to consider:

• Tom Curran – Projected 19.8 runs + 1.0 wickets, consistent all-round value
• Tymal Mills – 1.58 projected wickets per match, Sussex’s leading wicket-taker
• Daniel Hughes – Projected 27.5 runs, 83.3% hit rate for 20+ runs this season

Key Players

Sam Curran (Surrey)
Surrey’s captain and leading run scorer with 168 season runs at avg 28.00 and a high score of 71. He hits 20+ runs in 50% of matches this season and chips in with regular wickets. On a batting paradise like County Ground, his aggressive lower-order batting and left-arm pace make him the key all-rounder.

Daniel Hughes (Sussex)
The most consistent scorer in this fixture with an outstanding 83.3% hit rate for 20+ runs this season. Hughes has 181 runs at avg 30.17 and is the heartbeat of Sussex’s batting order. If the hosts are going to post a competitive total, Hughes needs to deliver again.

Will Jacks (Surrey)
Jacks has 109 runs in 4 innings this season (avg 27.25, HS 70) and 181 runs at County Ground in Blast cricket. His off-spin gives added value – contributing 0.55 projected wickets per match. A 20+ runs hit rate of 50% across the season makes him a consistent threat.

Tymal Mills (Sussex)
The Sussex captain has 10 wickets in 6 matches and a 1+ wicket hit rate of 66.7% this season (80% in his last 5). His left-arm pace is hard to handle at the death and he leads from the front with the ball.

Conditions

Clear skies in Hove with temperatures around 26 degrees Celsius at the start. Wind at 7.4 km/h from the southwest with 36% cloud cover. No rain expected – a full, uninterrupted match is guaranteed.

Verdict and Betting Angles

Surrey are clear favourites and the data supports it. A 57% win probability, dominant h2h record (5-3 overall, 3-1 at this venue), and superior squad depth all point one way. Sussex’s four losses from five is poor form and their bowling has been leaking runs at home.

Live bet365 odds: Sussex 5/4 (2.25), Surrey 8/13 (1.615).

The value sits with Surrey at 8/13. Their batting lineup featuring Jason Roy, Will Jacks, Ollie Pope, and Sam Curran should relish the batting-friendly conditions at Hove.

Bet builder angles – build your own at the Statz bet builder:

• Daniel Hughes 20+ runs – 83.3% hit rate this season. The most bankable batting angle in this match.
• Reece Topley 1+ wicket – 100% hit rate across all 6 matches this season. The left-armer takes at least one every time.
• Danny Briggs 1+ wicket – 100% season hit rate for the Sussex spinner. Spin economy of 8.01 at this ground is favourable.
• Sam Curran 20+ runs – 50% season hit rate, and he has been consistent at 168 runs in 6 innings. County Ground conditions suit his style.