Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe 2nd Test Prediction (13 Nov): Projections & Preview
Afghanistan and Zimbabwe meet at the Sharjah Cricket Stadium on Friday for the 2nd and final Test of a series that is level at 0-0 with one draw. First ball is at 10:00 local time on Friday 13 November (06:00 UK time, 11:30 IST).
The series is level at 0-0 (with 1 draw) going into the 2nd and final Test – whoever wins here takes the series. The first Test, played at this very ground just eight days ago, produced a high-scoring draw with Afghanistan posting 514 and Zimbabwe replying with 504 before batting again to reach 523/5. Expect more of the same from a venue that rewards batters. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Toss Prediction
Sharjah Cricket Stadium is a batter’s paradise – the Statz figures from 1 match there confirm it. The average runs per match stands at 1541, with an average of 144 fours and 21 sixes per game. Boundaries account for 45.6% of all runs. The pitch is tagged as a batting paradise by Statz.
Spin has a slight edge over seam: spinners have taken 48% of wickets at an economy of 3.76, while seamers have claimed 44% at 3.19. Seamers are more economical but spin does the bulk of the damage as the surface wears. Teams batting first have won 55.7% of matches at this venue – a meaningful edge that points towards batting on winning the toss.
The toss prediction: the data leans towards batting first. A fresh pitch here offers little for seamers early, and the batting-first win percentage of 55.7% supports that call. In a Test, bowling first means getting the new ball on a fresh surface, but it also means batting last on a worn, spin-friendly track – at Sharjah, that is a significant risk given how heavily spin features as the match progresses. The data favours the side that bats first.
Note: the Sharjah Cricket Stadium figures come from 1 match there, so treat them as indicative rather than a large sample.
Form and Table
Afghanistan have drawn their last 2. Their last 5 matches were played: 2 neutral, 3 away.
Afghanistan – Recent Form
- 5 Nov 2026 vs Zimbabwe (N): D – AFG 514, ZIM 504 & 523/5
- 9 Oct 2026 vs Bangladesh (N): D – AFG 240 & 346/8, BAN 346 & 372/7
- 6 Jun 2026 vs India (A): L – AFG 152 & 112, IND 564/8
- 20 Oct 2025 vs Zimbabwe (A): L – AFG 127 & 159, ZIM 347
- 2 Jan 2025 vs Zimbabwe (A): W – AFG 157 & 363, ZIM 243 & 205
Zimbabwe have drawn their last match. Their last 5 matches were played: 1 neutral, 4 home.
Zimbabwe – Recent Form
- 5 Nov 2026 vs Afghanistan (N): D – ZIM 504 & 523/5, AFG 514
- 28 Jun 2026 vs Bangladesh (H): W – ZIM 410, BAN 140 & 185
- 20 Oct 2025 vs Afghanistan (H): W – ZIM 347, AFG 127 & 159
- 7 Aug 2025 vs New Zealand (H): L – ZIM 125 & 117, NZ 601/3
- 30 Jul 2025 vs New Zealand (H): L – ZIM 149 & 165, NZ 307 & 8/1
Both sides come into this match without a table position to speak of – the standings show all teams on zero points with no matches completed in the league phase yet. This is a standalone series decider, and the stakes could not be higher.
Head-to-Head
In six Test Series meetings, Afghanistan and Zimbabwe are perfectly level: two wins apiece and two draws. The last five meetings, newest first:
- 05 Nov 2026, Sharjah Cricket Stadium: Match drawn
- 20 Oct 2025, Harare Sports Club: Zimbabwe won by an innings and 73 runs
- 02 Jan 2025, Queens Sports Club: Afghanistan won by 72 runs
- 26 Dec 2024, Queens Sports Club: Match drawn
- 10 Mar 2021, Sheikh Zayed Stadium: Afghanistan won by 6 wickets
The leading run-scorers across the last 6 meetings in Test Series tell an interesting story. For Afghanistan, Hashmatullah Shahidi leads with 477 runs from 6 matches, ahead of Rahmat Shah with 455 from 5. Asghar Afghan’s 177 from 2 matches is historical – he is no longer in the current squad. For Zimbabwe, Sean Williams (316 from 4) and Sikandar Raza (254 from 4) are the historical leaders but neither is in the current squad. Ben Curran is the leading active Zimbabwe run-scorer in this fixture with 246 from 4 matches.
With the ball, Blessing Muzarabani leads Zimbabwe’s wicket-takers in this fixture with 11 wickets from 6 matches – the most by any active bowler on either side. Newman Nyamhuri has 9 from 3. For Afghanistan, Amir Hamza (9 wickets) and Rashid Khan (8) are no longer in the squad. Ziaur Rahman Sharifi is the leading active Afghanistan wicket-taker in this fixture with 8 from 2 matches.
Statz Projections and Projected Score
The Statz projections give Afghanistan a clear edge regardless of the toss result – but a draw remains a real possibility, as it must in any Test match.
If Afghanistan bat first: Projected first-innings total of 346.4 (P10-P90 range: 167.6 to 565.9), projected match total of 1061.3. Win probability – Afghanistan 45.4%, Zimbabwe 33.6%, draw 21.0%.
If Zimbabwe bat first: Projected first-innings total of 321.2 (P10-P90 range: 155.3 to 529.3), projected match total of 1045.3. Win probability – Afghanistan 45.3%, Zimbabwe 33.6%, draw 21.1%.
The projected match total of 1053 is 488 runs below the Sharjah Cricket Stadium average of 1541 – the model rates both bowling attacks as capable of keeping a lid on things despite the surface. If Afghanistan bat first, their projected first innings of 346.4 is 43.7 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 302.7; if Zimbabwe bat first, their projected first innings of 321.2 is 18.5 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 302.7. The wide P10-P90 range reflects the inherent uncertainty of a five-day match – anything from a low-scoring thriller to another run-fest is on the cards.
Season Leaders
The figures below cover the Test Series 2026 and rank each side’s own players only.
Afghanistan – Season Leaders (Test Series 2026)
Runs: Rahmat Shah – 402 runs, 134 a match, HS 173 | Sediqullah Atal – 292 runs, 97.33 a match, HS 128 | Rahmanullah Zadran – 113 runs, 113 a match, HS 113
Wickets: Mohammad Saleem – 16 wickets, 5.33 a match, best 6 | Zia ur Rehman Akbar – 6 wickets, 3 a match, best 4 | Qais Ahmad – 5 wickets, 2.5 a match, best 3
Zimbabwe – Season Leaders (Test Series 2026)
Runs: Craig Ervine – 270 runs, 135 a match, HS 210 | Brian Bennett – 245 runs, 122.5 a match, HS 186 | Wesley Madhevere – 231 runs, 115.5 a match, HS 154
Wickets: Newman Nyamhuri – 11 wickets, 5.5 a match, best 6 | Blessing Muzarabani – 7 wickets, 3.5 a match, best 6 | Richard Ngarava – 5 wickets, 5 a match, best 5
Competition Leaders (Test Series 2026 – all sides)
Rahmat Shah leads the competition’s run-scorers with 402, ahead of Sediqullah Atal (292) and Craig Ervine (270). Mohammad Saleem tops the wicket-takers with 16, ahead of Newman Nyamhuri (11).
Predicted XIs
Afghanistan (based on XI vs Zimbabwe, 05 Nov 2026)
- Sediqullah Atal
- Abdul Malik
- Rahmanullah Zadran
- Rahmat Shah (c)
- Hashmatullah Shahidi
- Shahidullah Kamal
- Ikram Alikhil (wk)
- Qais Ahmad
- Zia ur Rehman Akbar
- Mohammad Saleem
- Ziaur Rahman Sharifi
Zimbabwe (based on XI vs Afghanistan, 05 Nov 2026)
- Innocent Kaia
- Ben Curran
- Brendan Taylor
- Brian Bennett (c)
- Craig Ervine
- Antum Naqvi
- Wesley Madhevere
- Tafadzwa Tsiga (wk)
- Graeme Cremer
- Newman Nyamhuri
- Blessing Muzarabani
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks
Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:
Captain: Rahmat Shah (AFG) – 179 projected points. Afghanistan’s captain and leading run-scorer in this series with 402 runs at 134 a match. His 100% hit rate for 20+ and 30+ runs this season makes him the standout captain pick.
Vice Captain: Sediqullah Atal (AFG) – 144.5 projected points. Second in Afghanistan’s run-scoring charts with 292 runs at 97.33 a match and a 100% hit rate for 20+ runs this season. Consistent and reliable at the top of the order.
Also consider:
- Mohammad Saleem (AFG) – projected 137.2 points (Zimbabwe bat first scenario) – 16 wickets this season, 5.33 a match, 100% hit rate for 1+ and 2+ wickets
- Brian Bennett (ZIM) – projected 138.6 points (Zimbabwe bat first scenario) – 245 season runs at 122.5 a match
- Newman Nyamhuri (ZIM) – projected 126.4 points – 11 wickets this season, 5.5 a match
Key Players
Rahmat Shah (Afghanistan)
The Afghanistan captain is the standout batter in this series. Rahmat Shah has scored 402 runs in the Test Series 2026 at 134 a match, with a high score of 173 – that century came in the first Test at this very ground. He has hit 20+ runs in 100% of his matches this season and 30+ in 100% as well. The Statz model projects him for 115.3 runs if Afghanistan bat first – a figure that underlines just how central he is to their batting plans.
Mohammad Saleem (Afghanistan)
The leading wicket-taker in the entire Test Series 2026 competition with 16 wickets at 5.33 a match, best figures of 6. Mohammad Saleem has taken 1+ wickets in 100% of his matches this season and 2+ wickets in 100% as well – a remarkable level of consistency. The Statz model projects him for 5.25 wickets if Zimbabwe bat first. He is the bowler most likely to make the decisive breakthrough.
Newman Nyamhuri (Zimbabwe)
Zimbabwe’s leading wicket-taker in the Test Series 2026 with 11 wickets at 5.5 a match, best figures of 6. Nyamhuri has been the most dangerous bowler in this fixture too, taking 9 wickets across 3 meetings in Test Series. The Statz model projects him for 4.36 wickets if Afghanistan bat first – he will be Zimbabwe’s primary threat with the ball.
Craig Ervine (Zimbabwe)
Zimbabwe’s leading run-scorer in the Test Series 2026 with 270 runs at 135 a match and a high score of 210. Ervine is the anchor of Zimbabwe’s batting order and the Statz model projects him for 70.2 runs if Zimbabwe bat first. His experience and consistency make him the batter Zimbabwe most need to fire if they are to take the series.
Conditions
Clear skies are forecast for the start of play in Sharjah, with temperatures around 28 degrees and humidity at 43%. No rain is expected. Cloud cover is 0% and wind is 21 km/h from the north-west – comfortable conditions for a full day’s cricket.
Who Will Win Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe?
Afghanistan are the lean pick here. The Statz model gives them a 45.4% chance of winning (batting first), with Zimbabwe at 33.6% and the draw at 21.1% – this match can absolutely be drawn, as the first Test demonstrated.
Afghanistan hold the edge in the projections regardless of the toss outcome, and their bowling attack – led by Mohammad Saleem’s 16 wickets this season – looks the more potent of the two. Rahmat Shah’s form with the bat is exceptional. Zimbabwe are not without hope: Ervine and Bennett have runs on the board, and Nyamhuri and Muzarabani can take wickets on any surface. But the data leans Afghanistan’s way, and with the series on the line, their experience in these conditions gives them the edge. Nothing is guaranteed in a five-day Test, and the draw at 21.1% is a real factor to consider.
Betting Angles
The best_bets data is not available for this fixture. For real-time hit rates and player prop data, head to the Statz bet builder. Based on the season hit rate data, the following angles stand out:
- Rahmat Shah 20+ runs – 100% season hit rate across 3 matches. The most consistent batter in the series.
- Rahmat Shah 30+ runs – 100% season hit rate. Extraordinary consistency from Afghanistan’s captain.
- Sediqullah Atal 20+ runs – 100% season hit rate. The opening partner has been equally reliable.
- Mohammad Saleem 1+ wickets – 100% season hit rate across 3 matches. Has taken a wicket in every Test this season.
- Mohammad Saleem 2+ wickets – 100% season hit rate. Stepping up to two wickets still has full backing from the data.
All odds are indicative – check the Statz bet builder for the latest prices and availability.
Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe Prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe?
A: The Statz model leans Afghanistan, giving them a 45.4% win probability compared to 33.6% for Zimbabwe and 21.1% for the draw. Afghanistan’s bowling depth and Rahmat Shah’s batting form are the key factors, but a draw is a genuine possibility in a five-day Test and nothing is guaranteed.
Q: What is the projected score for Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe?
A: If Afghanistan bat first, the projected first-innings total is 346.4 and the match total is 1061.3. If Zimbabwe bat first, the projected first innings is 321.2 and the match total is 1045.3. The wide P10-P90 range (roughly 155 to 566 for the first innings) reflects the uncertainty of a five-day match.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss in the 2nd Test?
A: The toss is unpredictable, but the data suggests batting first is the better call at Sharjah – teams batting first have won 55.7% of matches at this venue. Both captains are likely to want to bat first on a fresh surface.
Q: Is Afghanistan a good bet to win the series?
A: The Statz model gives Afghanistan a 45.4% chance of winning this match, which would hand them the series. That is a meaningful edge over Zimbabwe’s 33.6%, but with a 21.1% draw probability, the series could still finish level. The data supports Afghanistan as the value side, but far from settled.
