New Zealand vs India 3rd ODI Prediction (10 Nov): Projections & Preview
India travel to Hamilton for the 3rd ODI against New Zealand at Seddon Park on Tuesday, looking to seal the series after winning the first two matches. First ball is at 15:00 NZDT on Tuesday 10 November (02:00 UK time, 07:30 IST). For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the New Zealand vs India fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Toss Prediction
Seddon Park is a bowler-friendly ground that has delivered tight contests. Across 9 ODI matches here, the average match total stands at 440.7, with an average first-innings score of 254.7. Teams batting first have won only 28.6% of the time – a significant toss disadvantage for the side electing to bat.
Seam bowlers have dominated at this venue, taking 70.7% of wickets at an economy rate of 5.55, while spinners account for 22.6% of dismissals at 5.71. New Zealand hold a commanding home record at Seddon Park since 2021: 7 wins from 8 matches, with their sole blemish a no-result. India’s only visit here came in a no-result, so this will be their first competitive outing at the ground in this cycle.
Form and Table
New Zealand
New Zealand have lost their last 3, a concerning run heading into this must-win clash. Both defeats to India came at home – first at Eden Park on 4 November (India won by 5 wickets with 56 balls remaining under D/L) and then at Sky Stadium on 7 November (India won by 4 runs via D/L). Before that, they suffered three consecutive losses in the Caribbean in July:
- 7 Nov vs India (H): L – NZ 134/10 (41), IND 113/7 (26)
- 4 Nov vs India (H): L – NZ 185/10 (40.2), IND 143/5 (22.4)
- 21 Jul vs West Indies (A): L – NZ 268/9 (50), WI 269/8 (47.3)
- 19 Jul vs West Indies (A): W – NZ 189/9 (44.1), WI 188/10 (44.4)
- 16 Jul vs West Indies (A): W – NZ 141/4 (39.3), WI 140/10 (37.1)
India
India have won their last 2, seizing control of the series with back-to-back victories in New Zealand. They arrive in Hamilton with genuine momentum after dismantling the home side in both Auckland and Wellington:
- 7 Nov vs New Zealand (A): W – IND 113/7 (26), NZ 134/10 (41)
- 4 Nov vs New Zealand (A): W – IND 143/5 (22.4), NZ 185/10 (40.2)
- 3 Oct vs West Indies (H): L – IND 351/7 (50), WI 352/5 (48.2)
- 30 Sep vs West Indies (H): W – IND 406/2 (43.3), WI 405/7 (50)
- 27 Sep vs West Indies (H): W – IND 300/2 (41.4), WI 295/7 (50)
Head-to-Head
India hold a commanding record in the ODI rivalry. In 19 meetings, India have won 12 to New Zealand’s 7. The momentum is entirely with the visitors – India have won the last two matches in this very series, both in New Zealand. Looking at the broader recent record across the last 24 ODIs between these sides, India lead decisively.
For New Zealand, Daryl Mitchell has been the standout performer against India, amassing 824 runs across 13 meetings at an average that underlines his importance to the home side. Kyle Jamieson has taken 15 wickets in 6 matches against India, proving he can trouble them with the ball.
For India, Virat Kohli leads the run-scoring charts with 1,086 runs across 21 meetings, while Kuldeep Yadav has been a match-winner with 27 wickets in just 6 matches – a devastating average that shows his impact in this fixture.
Statz Projections and Projected Score
The Statz projections favour India across both scenarios, though the margin is not decisive.
If New Zealand bat first: Projected first-innings total of 257.6, match total of 496.6. Win probability – NZ 41.5%, India 55.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 204 to 304.
If India bat first: Projected first-innings total of 262.1, match total of 500.7. Win probability – NZ 44.8%, India 52.2%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 214 to 306.
Both scenarios project India to win, but New Zealand gain a marginal edge if they bowl first (44.8% vs 41.5%). The projected match total of 499 is 58.3 runs above the Seddon Park average of 440.7, suggesting both sides will find runs easier to come by than the ground’s recent history indicates. Match total P10-P90 range: 419 to 579.
Season Leaders
New Zealand – One Day Internationals 2026
Runs: Daryl Mitchell – 556 runs, 69.5 a match, HS 137 | Will Young – 371 runs, 28.54 a match, HS 87 | Henry Nicholls – 255 runs, 19.62 a match, HS 68
Wickets: Jayden Lennox – 22 wickets, 2.2 a match, best 5 | Jacob Duffy – 11 wickets, 1.57 a match, best 3 | Kyle Jamieson – 10 wickets, 2 a match, best 4
India – One Day Internationals 2026
Runs: Shubman Gill – 932 runs, 66.57 a match, HS 223 | Virat Kohli – 633 runs, 57.55 a match, HS 139 | Rohit Sharma – 627 runs, 44.79 a match, HS 138
Wickets: Gurnoor Brar – 21 wickets, 1.91 a match, best 4 | Prasidh Krishna – 16 wickets, 1.78 a match, best 5 | Arshdeep Singh – 12 wickets, 2 a match, best 4
Predicted XIs
New Zealand (based on XI vs India, 7 Nov 2026)
- Will Young
- Tim Seifert
- Henry Nicholls
- Daryl Mitchell
- Tom Latham (wk)
- Glenn Phillips
- Mitchell Santner (c)
- Nathan Smith
- Kyle Jamieson
- Blair Tickner
- Jacob Duffy
India (based on XI vs New Zealand, 7 Nov 2026)
- Rohit Sharma
- Shubman Gill (c)
- Virat Kohli
- Shreyas Iyer
- Axar Patel
- Lokesh Rahul (wk)
- Naman Dhir
- Anshul Kamboj
- Auqib Nabi
- Gurnoor Brar
- Arshdeep Singh
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks
Captain: Shubman Gill (India) – projected 109.9 points. The India opener has been in outstanding form this cycle with 932 runs at 66.57 a match. His 78.6% hit rate for 20+ runs and consistency make him the standout captain choice.
Vice Captain: Tim Seifert (New Zealand) – projected 108.5 points. The New Zealand wicketkeeper provides balance and has the all-rounder edge with both batting and keeping duties.
Also consider:
- Daryl Mitchell (NZ) – projected 103.1 points – 556 season runs at 69.5 a match, 100% hit rate for 20+ runs
- Virat Kohli (IND) – projected 101.4 points – 633 season runs at 57.55 a match, 72.7% hit rate for 20+ runs
- Jayden Lennox (NZ) – 22 wickets this cycle, 100% hit rate for 1+ wicket
Key Players
Shubman Gill (India)
The India opener has been the standout batter in this ODI cycle. With 932 runs at 66.57 a match and a highest score of 223, Gill sits at the top of the competition’s run-scoring charts. His 78.6% hit rate for 20+ runs and 71.4% for 30+ runs show a player in complete control. Against New Zealand specifically, he has 737 runs across 15 meetings – a record that underlines his dominance in this fixture.
Daryl Mitchell (New Zealand)
New Zealand’s most important batter. Mitchell has 556 runs at 69.5 a match this cycle, with a highest score of 137. Remarkably, he has scored 20+ runs in every single match this season – a 100% hit rate that is extraordinary. His last three scores of 28, 28 and 55 show he remains in form despite the team’s recent struggles. Against India, he has 824 runs across 13 meetings, making him the key to any New Zealand recovery.
Virat Kohli (India)
India’s talisman with 633 runs at 57.55 a match this cycle. Kohli has a 72.7% hit rate for 20+ runs and 54.5% for 30+ runs. Against New Zealand, he has 1,086 runs across 21 meetings – the leading run-scorer in this fixture across the last 24 ODIs. His experience and consistency make him a constant threat.
Jayden Lennox (New Zealand)
New Zealand’s leading wicket-taker with 22 wickets this cycle at 2.2 a match. Lennox has taken a wicket in 100% of his matches this season and taken 2+ wickets in 60% of them. He will be crucial to New Zealand’s chances of restricting India’s batting lineup.
Who Will Win New Zealand vs India?
India are the pick at 53.9% to win, with New Zealand at 43.2%. The visitors have momentum on their side, having won the first two matches of this series convincingly. Their batting depth – led by Gill, Kohli and Rohit Sharma – gives them multiple match-winners, while their bowling attack, spearheaded by Gurnoor Brar’s 21 wickets this cycle, has proven potent. New Zealand’s three-match losing streak and struggles at home in this series make them vulnerable, though Seddon Park’s bowler-friendly nature and their dominant home record here (7 wins from 8 since 2021) offer a lifeline.
Betting Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture. Key angles to explore:
- Daryl Mitchell 20+ runs – 100% season hit rate. The most bankable batting line in this match.
- Shubman Gill 20+ runs – 78.6% season hit rate. India’s opener has been relentless this cycle.
- Jayden Lennox 1+ wicket – 100% season hit rate. New Zealand’s leading bowler has taken a wicket in every match.
- Gurnoor Brar 1+ wicket – 81.8% season hit rate. India’s leading wicket-taker remains a reliable source of points.
New Zealand vs India Prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win New Zealand vs India?
A: India are favoured at 53.9% to win, with New Zealand at 43.2%. India have won the first two matches of this series and hold a 12-7 record in the head-to-head. However, New Zealand’s dominant home record at Seddon Park (7 wins from 8 since 2021) and the ground’s bowler-friendly nature make this far from settled.
Q: What is the projected score in this match?
A: The projected match total is 499 runs, which is 58.3 runs above the Seddon Park average of 440.7. If New Zealand bat first, their projected first-innings total is 257.6; if India bat first, their projected first-innings total is 262.1. Both sides are projected to score above the ground’s historical average.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: The toss data favours bowling first at Seddon Park. Teams batting first have won only 28.6% of matches here. Both sides would prefer to bowl first – New Zealand win 44.8% bowling first versus 41.5% batting first, while India win 55.5% bowling first versus 52.2% batting first.
Q: Is India a good bet?
A: India are the form side, having won their last 2 matches in this series and holding a 12-7 head-to-head record. Their batting depth and bowling attack make them a solid choice at 53.9% win probability. However, New Zealand’s home advantage and Seddon Park’s bowler-friendly conditions mean backing India is not without risk.
