CSK vs DC at Chepauk – and for Chennai, the alarm bells are ringing. The Super Kings sit bottom of the IPL 2026 table with zero points from three games and an NRR of -2.517. Delhi Capitals arrive 4th, two wins from three, with intent. CSK need a win. Delhi will be happy to play spoiler.

Venue: MA Chidambaram Stadium, Chennai (Chepauk)

Chepauk’s 1st innings average is 166 from 59 matches – right at the T20 benchmark. Batting first wins just 44% here; chasing sides have a marginal advantage. The 74% humidity in Chennai today means the ball may swing early, another reason to consider batting second.

Weather: clear sky, 29°C, 74% humidity.

Form and Context

CSK’s opening three games have been dire – three straight losses, NRR of -2.517. Recent five-game form (L-L-L-W-L) tells a grim story. Ruturaj Gaikwad’s side need a win at home desperately.

Delhi Capitals are composed under Axar Patel. Two wins from three, NRR +0.811. Beat LSG and MI convincingly, their only loss to GT. Pathum Nissanka’s introduction to the top order has added T20 dynamism, and KL Rahul has anchored well below.

Statz Projections

Statz leans DC: 53% win probability to CSK’s 46%. Projected total 322, 1st innings 169 – right on the Chepauk average.

Top Dream11 pick: Ayush Mhatre (CSK, D11: 102.8) leads all projections in this fixture. Projected 31.2 runs at SR 180.5 plus 0.5 wickets from 3.5 overs. Matthew Short (CSK, D11: 101.1) follows close behind. DC’s top-rated player is Axar Patel (D11: 79.9).

Full projections: statz.ai/cricket/fixtures/69535/chennai-super-kings-vs-delhi-capitals/projections

Predicted Lineups

Chennai Super Kings (likely XI): Ruturaj Gaikwad (c), Ayush Mhatre, Matthew Short, Dewald Brevis, Sanju Samson (wk), Shivam Dube, Sarfaraz Khan, Urvil Patel, Jamie Overton, Mahendra Singh Dhoni, Kartik Sharma

Delhi Capitals (likely XI): Prithvi Shaw, Pathum Nissanka, KL Rahul (wk), Axar Patel (c), David Miller, Sameer Rizvi, Nitish Rana, Tristan Stubbs, Karun Nair, Ashutosh Sharma, Ben Duckett

Note: The DC squad sheet flags Ben Duckett as replaced by Pathum Nissanka. Nissanka has been featuring in DC’s lineup. Check the fixture page for confirmed lineup after the toss.

Key Players

Ayush Mhatre (CSK) – Statz’s top-rated player in this match at D11 102.8. Projected 31.2 runs at SR 180.5 plus 0.5 wickets. The most explosive talent in CSK’s lineup and their best hope of changing the season’s narrative.

Matthew Short (CSK) – Consistently among CSK’s best. Projected 29.8 runs, 0.8 wickets at economy 8.9, 0.7 catches. D11 101.1 – must-have for fantasy teams.

Ruturaj Gaikwad (CSK) – Projected 37.1 runs off 26 balls at SR 145.5. The captain who needs a big knock. Chepauk is his home – expect him to rise to the occasion.

Axar Patel (DC) – DC’s all-round lynchpin. Projected 16.1 runs and 1.1 wickets at economy 7.6 from 3.2 overs. D11 79.9 – DC’s standout projection in this fixture.

Verdict

Statz backs DC at 53%, and CSK’s three-loss start gives little reason to disagree. Mhatre and Short are bright spots for the hosts, but Delhi’s balance under Axar is superior right now. Ruturaj needs a big score at home – but the data says Delhi edge this. Delhi Capitals to win – CSK’s season is at a crossroads.

Bet Builder Angles

Check hit rates at the Statz Bet Builder:

• Ayush Mhatre 25+ runs – D11 102.8, projected 31.2 at SR 180.5. CSK’s most explosive bat.
• Axar Patel 1+ wickets – 1.1 wickets projected at economy 7.6. Thrives on Chennai conditions.
• Ruturaj Gaikwad 30+ runs – Projected 37.1 from 26 balls. The captain on home turf, desperate for runs.