Essex vs Surrey - Preview, Predictions & H2H · County Championship Division One
Essex
L
W
W
W
D
Division 1
County Championship Division One · Division 1 · County Ground
10:00 AM UTC
Thu, Aug 27 · County Ground, Chelmsford · County Ground
Surrey
L
L
D
L
D
SUR lead H2H 2–1
1004 avg total here
51.3% boundary rate
25°C, clear sky
Snater 8 straight wickets (1+)
ESSEssex
10:00 AM
SURSurrey
County Championship Division One · Division 1 · County Ground
The Statz verdict
Surrey lead this head-to-head 2–1, including the only meeting at County Ground. The season batting edge is SUR's, 364.8 runs per game vs 296.9, while ESS's attack takes 9.9 wickets a match, the better bowling unit. They meet on a 51.3% boundary-rate ground averaging 1004 total runs.
Auto-generated from Statz data · refreshes through match day
Head-to-head record
9 meetings · 2019–2026
1
2
6 draws
Pro · Win probability
28%
30%
ESS
SUR
Projected total, innings scores and match sixes for this fixture.
Season comparison
50%
11.1%
Win rate
296.9
364.8
Avg runs
297.3
419.8
Avg conceded
9.9
9.2
Avg wickets
2
3.8
Avg sixes
40
46.1
Avg boundaries
Dream11 · Optimal XI
+8
1932 projected points · captaincy pick + reasoning, re-run when XIs confirm.
Build & Rate →
Pro · Win probability
28%
30%
ESS
SUR
Projected total, innings scores and match sixes for this fixture.
Pro · Projections
Win probability, totals and 34-player projections are unlocked for you.
Dream11 · Optimal XI
+8
1932 projected points · captaincy pick + reasoning, re-run when XIs confirm.
Build & Rate →
Projection values are hidden. Pro members see exact win %, totals and every player projection.
See Pro plans
Projected win probability
toss pending · blend of both scenarios
ESS
SUR
Middle segment = projected draw
Projected totalTotal
ground avg 1,003.7
1st innings1st inn
ground avg 350.3
Match sixesSixes
ground avg 9.6
Match foursFours
ground avg 114.4
MODEL CONFIDENCE
High
ESS projected boundaries
3.3 6s
43.2 4s
Ground 6s factor 1.15x
SUR projected boundaries
4.8 6s
45.9 4s
Ground 4s factor 1.05x
Player projections
expected XI · per-player output
Advanced adds balls, bowling workload, conceded, economy, catches, stumpings, run-outs
| Essex | Runs | Balls | SR | 4s | 6s | Ov | Wkts | Conc | Econ | Ct | St | RO | Perf | D11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Elgar | 72.5 | 146 | 50 | 9.6 | 0.2 | - | - | - | - | 0.7 | - | - | 79.1 | 129.7 |
| Tom Westley | 71.0 | 154 | 46 | 9.5 | 0.2 | - | - | - | - | 0.3 | - | - | 74.1 | 124.5 |
| Michael Pepper | 46.0 | 75 | 61 | 5.5 | 0.5 | - | - | - | - | 2.8 | - | 0.0 | 74.0 | 101.5 |
| Paul Walter | 62.9 | 109 | 58 | 8.1 | 0.6 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 12 | 4.3 | 0.9 | - | 0.0 | 79.2 | 125.6 |
| Charlie Allison | 66.4 | 119 | 56 | 8.8 | 0.7 | - | - | - | - | 0.4 | - | 0.1 | 70.4 | 121.2 |
| Matthew Critchley | 66.3 | 112 | 59 | 8.0 | 0.6 | 14.7 | 1.7 | 51 | 3.5 | 0.6 | - | - | 106.1 | 156.6 |
| Luc Benkenstein | 28.5 | 68 | 42 | 4.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | 0.7 | - | - | 35.0 | 55.2 |
| Simon Harmer | 36.9 | 78 | 47 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 36.9 | 3.1 | 101 | 2.7 | 1.2 | - | - | 110.9 | 144.5 |
| Shane Snater | 25.8 | 38 | 68 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 23.7 | 3.3 | 74 | 3.1 | 0.4 | - | 0.0 | 94.9 | 124.7 |
| James Porter | 6.3 | 21 | 31 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 60.0 | 5.0 | 254 | 2.7 | 0.4 | - | 0.0 | 109.7 | 134.1 |
| Charlie Bennett | 14.0 | 29 | 49 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 17.4 | 2.4 | 89 | 5.1 | 0.0 | - | - | 61.0 | 82.2 |
| ▾ Full squad projections (9 more) | ||||||||||||||
| Wiaan Mulder | 49.3 | 87 | 57 | 6.2 | 0.2 | 21.1 | 3.3 | 70 | 3.3 | 0.2 | - | 0.1 | 115.9 | 160.6 |
| Jordan Cox | 82.6 | 128 | 65 | 11.1 | 0.6 | - | - | - | - | 1.1 | - | - | 93.2 | 153.3 |
| Samuel Cook | 14.1 | 32 | 44 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 27.5 | 4.5 | 76 | 2.8 | 0.4 | - | 0.0 | 108.5 | 133.5 |
| Zaman Akhter | 38.6 | 60 | 64 | 5.1 | 0.5 | 19.0 | 2.3 | 129 | 6.8 | 0.2 | - | 0.1 | 86.8 | 123.9 |
| Noah Thain | 29.3 | 73 | 40 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 1.1 | 54 | 4.9 | 0.3 | - | - | 54.8 | 78.5 |
| Simon Fernandes | 5.9 | 6 | 110 | 0.4 | 0.3 | - | - | - | - | 4.0 | - | 1.0 | 45.9 | 54.3 |
| Robin Das | 25.6 | 64 | 40 | 3.3 | 0.0 | - | - | - | - | 0.8 | - | - | 33.2 | 49.8 |
| Mackenzie Jones | 5.9 | 6 | 110 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 34 | 9.6 | 1.0 | - | - | 25.7 | 32.0 |
| Mitchell Killeen | 5.9 | 6 | 110 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 34 | 9.6 | 0.0 | - | - | 15.9 | 24.1 |
| Surrey | Runs | Balls | SR | 4s | 6s | Ov | Wkts | Conc | Econ | Ct | St | RO | Perf | D11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Burns | 60.5 | 114 | 53 | 7.7 | 0.4 | - | - | - | - | 0.9 | - | 0.0 | 69.0 | 111.2 |
| Dominic Sibley | 87.2 | 194 | 45 | 9.3 | 0.6 | - | - | - | - | 0.7 | - | - | 94.3 | 148.4 |
| Ollie Pope | 78.6 | 122 | 64 | 9.6 | 0.5 | - | - | - | - | 1.4 | - | 0.1 | 92.5 | 145.0 |
| Ryan Patel | 51.6 | 97 | 53 | 6.7 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 0.2 | 10 | 3.8 | 0.6 | - | 0.1 | 60.9 | 99.8 |
| Daniel Lawrence | 78.6 | 102 | 77 | 9.0 | 1.5 | 13.2 | 0.8 | 44 | 3.3 | 0.5 | - | 0.0 | 98.9 | 158.5 |
| Adam Thomas | 56.8 | 102 | 56 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 5.9 | 0.2 | 28 | 4.8 | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | 67.9 | 103.4 |
| Sam Curran | 68.5 | 88 | 78 | 8.8 | 1.3 | 19.0 | 2.2 | 48 | 2.6 | 0.5 | - | 0.0 | 116.1 | 175.9 |
| Sean Abbott | 45.7 | 63 | 73 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 30.7 | 3.1 | 90 | 2.9 | 0.2 | - | - | 109.7 | 151.6 |
| Jordan Clark | 42.0 | 65 | 64 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 26.3 | 3.1 | 77 | 2.9 | 0.2 | - | 0.0 | 106.5 | 145.2 |
| Rahul Chahar | 18.5 | 32 | 59 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 17.1 | 2.4 | 93 | 5.4 | 0.0 | - | - | 66.8 | 89.0 |
| Gus Atkinson | 20.0 | 35 | 57 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 28.1 | 3.6 | 80 | 2.9 | 0.2 | - | 0.0 | 93.5 | 119.3 |
| Tom Lawes | 27.4 | 46 | 59 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 20.5 | 2.5 | 73 | 3.6 | 0.4 | - | 0.1 | 80.7 | 109.5 |
| ▾ Full squad projections (22 more) | ||||||||||||||
| Ben Foakes | 73.0 | 148 | 49 | 9.3 | 0.4 | - | - | - | - | 3.6 | - | 0.0 | 108.6 | 153.6 |
| Jamie Overton | 39.1 | 53 | 74 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 20.3 | 2.7 | 66 | 3.2 | 1.8 | - | - | 110.4 | 145.2 |
| Jamie Smith | 71.2 | 110 | 65 | 9.7 | 0.8 | - | - | - | - | 1.2 | - | 0.0 | 83.6 | 137.5 |
| Will Jacks | 58.1 | 77 | 75 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 17.1 | 1.0 | 48 | 2.8 | 1.1 | - | - | 88.2 | 134.2 |
| Daniel Worrall | 14.7 | 20 | 73 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 31.1 | 4.3 | 76 | 2.5 | 0.4 | - | - | 104.2 | 130.9 |
| Tom Curran | 51.5 | 69 | 74 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 17.5 | 1.1 | 54 | 3.1 | 0.7 | - | - | 80.4 | 126.7 |
| Matthew Fisher | 19.3 | 50 | 39 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 28.7 | 3.7 | 86 | 3.0 | 0.3 | - | 0.0 | 95.7 | 121.5 |
| Cameron Steel | 34.3 | 74 | 46 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 14.0 | 1.3 | 55 | 4.0 | 0.4 | - | 0.0 | 63.4 | 91.0 |
| Ralphie Albert | 22.9 | 30 | 76 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 8.4 | 1.5 | 43 | 5.1 | 0.5 | - | - | 57.4 | 81.2 |
| Josh Blake | 39.4 | 82 | 48 | 4.8 | 0.1 | - | - | - | - | 1.0 | - | - | 49.2 | 74.0 |
| Reece Topley | 4.0 | 6 | 72 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 24.3 | 2.0 | 77 | 3.2 | 0.2 | - | - | 46.1 | 58.0 |
| James Taylor | 14.9 | 45 | 33 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 19.9 | 1.1 | 69 | 3.5 | 0.2 | - | - | 39.8 | 56.1 |
| Ollie Sykes | 19.8 | 25 | 81 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 33 | 9.4 | 0.5 | - | - | 34.9 | 51.1 |
| Laurie Evans | 21.7 | 17 | 135 | 1.8 | 0.8 | - | - | - | - | 0.3 | - | 0.2 | 24.7 | 42.3 |
| Nikhil Gorantla | 21.7 | 17 | 135 | 1.8 | 0.8 | - | - | - | - | 0.3 | - | 0.2 | 24.7 | 42.3 |
| Jason Roy | 19.9 | 28 | 71 | 1.7 | 0.7 | - | - | - | - | 0.7 | - | - | 26.6 | 40.4 |
| Tom Ealham | 12.1 | 10 | 130 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 33 | 9.4 | 0.3 | - | 0.2 | 25.1 | 38.1 |
| Yousef Majid | 12.1 | 10 | 130 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 33 | 9.4 | 0.0 | - | - | 22.1 | 34.3 |
| Chris Jordan | 6.0 | 6 | 110 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 33 | 9.4 | 0.3 | - | 0.2 | 19.0 | 28.2 |
| Nathan Barnwell | 6.0 | 6 | 110 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 33 | 9.4 | 0.3 | - | 0.2 | 19.0 | 28.2 |
| Seb Stuart - Reckling | 6.0 | 6 | 110 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 33 | 9.4 | 0.3 | - | 0.2 | 19.0 | 28.2 |
| Alex French | 6.0 | 6 | 110 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 33 | 9.4 | 0.3 | - | 0.2 | 19.0 | 28.2 |
Sam Curran SUR
68.5 runs
175.9 D11
116.1 PP
Wiaan Mulder ESS
49.3 runs
160.6 D11
115.9 PP
Daniel Lawrence SUR
78.6 runs
158.5 D11
98.9 PP
Matthew Critchley ESS
66.3 runs
156.6 D11
106.1 PP
Ben Foakes SUR
73.0 runs
153.6 D11
108.6 PP
Jordan Cox ESS
82.6 runs
153.3 D11
93.2 PP
Sean Abbott SUR
45.7 runs
151.6 D11
109.7 PP
Dominic Sibley SUR
87.2 runs
148.4 D11
94.3 PP
54 players · full breakdown with Pro
See Pro plans
Track record
56.5% model win rate across 439 settled matches · see history →
Projections generated by the Statz AI engine
· v3 · 4 days ago
What Pro unlocks here
✓Exact win % both scenarios
✓Projected totals, sixes & fours
✓54-player stat projections
✓Model-vs-market edges
✓Dream11 optimal teams
Next: Dream11
These projections power the optimal fantasy XI for this match.
STATZ
ESS
vs
SUR
OPTIMAL
County Championship Division One • Thu, 27 Aug • 10:00
Projected Points
1932PTS
Rating
100/100
Wicket-Keepers
O. Pope
160.6 pts
Batters
D. Sibley
165.2 pts
R. Burns
123.4 pts
D. Elgar
114.2 pts
All-Rounders
C
S. Curran
190.3 pts
VC
D. Lawrence
174.5 pts
J. Clark
153.6 pts
M. Critchley
142.5 pts
Bowlers
S. Abbott
160.9 pts
S. Harmer
136.5 pts
J. Porter
132.8 pts
Built with Statz
STATZ
ESS
vs
SUR
TOSS HEDGE
County Championship Division One • Thu, 27 Aug • 10:00
Projected Points
1845PTS
Rating
100/100
Wicket-Keepers
O. Pope
129.3 pts
Batters
D. Elgar
145.1 pts
T. Westley
139.6 pts
C. Allison
135.7 pts
All-Rounders
C
M. Critchley
170.6 pts
VC
S. Curran
161.5 pts
D. Lawrence
142.4 pts
P. Walter
139.2 pts
Bowlers
S. Harmer
152.4 pts
S. Abbott
142.3 pts
J. Porter
135.3 pts
Built with Statz
Why this team
- High-scoring ground (350+ par) - top-order stacks have a tailwind; pace and spin grade similarly here.
- Slight chase edge (59% over last 17 games) - minor lean toward second-innings batters.
- Captain pick: Sam Curran (190.3 pts) - 9% projection edge over the next-best pick.
- Stacks SUR heavily (7 of 11) - more of their players grade as fantasy-relevant tonight; even out if you fancy ESS's XI to outperform projections.
Three teams per match
Optimal: highest projected points.
Small League: safe floor picks.
Grand League: higher-variance ceiling.
All re-run when XIs confirm.
Small League: safe floor picks.
Grand League: higher-variance ceiling.
All re-run when XIs confirm.
County Ground, Chelmsford
Full ground stats →The last 30 FirstClass matches here average 1004 total runs with a 51.3% boundary rate and 9.6 sixes a match. Seamers concede 2.31 an over against spin's 3.30, and chasing pays: teams batting first win only 41%.
Balanced pitch
1004
avg total
350
1st inn avg
9.6
sixes
41%
bat 1st wins
51.3%
boundary
Seam econ2.31
Spin econ3.30
Based on the last 30 FirstClass matches at this venue (since Apr 2022). 2 rain-affected matches excluded.
Last 5 matches here
Match
1st inn
2nd inn
Total
ESS vs NOT
19 Jun 2026
184/10 (57.4)
457/10 (126)
862
ESS vs LEI
15 May 2026
333/10 (90.2)
293/10 (85)
790
ESS vs HAM
08 May 2026
235/10 (71.3)
273/10 (90)
900
ESS vs SOM
10 Apr 2026
149/10 (51)
348/10 (92.3)
791
ESS vs SOM
24 Sep 2025
433/10 (122.2)
438/10 (106)
1069
ESS at this ground
20
WON
5
LOST
Avg score 30.1 · high 234
Top scorer Matthew Critchley 1514
Top bowler Simon Harmer 94 wkts
Top scorer Matthew Critchley 1514
Top bowler Simon Harmer 94 wkts
SUR at this ground
0
WON
1
LOST
Avg score 23.8 · high 125
Top scorer Dominic Sibley 176
Top bowler Gus Atkinson 6 wkts
Top scorer Dominic Sibley 176
Top bowler Gus Atkinson 6 wkts
Conditions
25°C · Clear Sky
Wind 3.6 km/h · 58% humidity
Ground angle · Bet Builder
Over 1000.5 match runs has landed in 1 of the last 5 here.
Build this bet →
Pro · Ground factors
Six factor 1.15x · Four factor 1.05x, applied to every player projection.
Top performers in this fixture
from 9 H2H meetings
ESS in form
SUR in form
Pro · Player projections
Dominic Sibley projected 97.4 runs at 45 SR.
Predicted XIs based on each side's last completed match. Confirmed lineups usually land ~30 min before the toss — this page updates automatically.
Get XI alerts
Essex
Last XI vs Nottinghamshire · 19 Jun 2026
10
Simon Harmer
Surrey
Last XI vs Nottinghamshire · 20 Aug 2026
11
Ryan Patel
Full squads
Essex
Full squad · 20 players
played in the last recorded XI · refreshed daily
Full Essex squad →
Surrey
Full squad · 35 players
played in the last recorded XI · refreshed daily
Full Surrey squad →
XI consistency
ESS
made 1 change for their last match.
SUR
made 5 changes for their last match.
Derived from recorded XIs; updates automatically.
When XIs confirm…
the Dream11 optimal team re-runs instantly. Get the revised pair on Telegram.
Join free Telegram
Pro · Bench watch
Projected output for all 54 squad players if they make the XI, so you spot the upgrade early.
Who is playing in Essex vs Surrey?
Confirmed XIs are announced around the toss, ~30 minutes before the start. Based on their last matches, Essex are likely to field Paul Walter, Dean Elgar, Tom Westley, James Porter and 7 more, and Surrey Rory Burns, Dominic Sibley, Adam Thomas, Matthew Fisher and 7 more — full predicted XIs and squads are on this page.
Who leads the Essex vs Surrey head-to-head record?
Surrey lead 2–1 from 9 matches.
What is Essex's current form in 2026?
Essex have won 4 and lost 3 from 8 matches in 2026, averaging 296.9 runs per match.
What is Surrey's current form in 2026?
Surrey have won 1 and lost 3 from 9 matches in 2026, averaging 364.8 runs per match.
Where is Essex vs Surrey being played?
Essex vs Surrey is being played at County Ground on 27 Aug 2026 at 15:30 IST.
Who are the top run-scorers in Essex vs Surrey head-to-head matches?
The top run-scorers in Essex vs Surrey H2H are Matthew Critchley (410 runs), Daniel Lawrence (403 runs), Dominic Sibley (342 runs).
Who are the top wicket-takers in Essex vs Surrey head-to-head matches?
The top wicket-takers in Essex vs Surrey H2H are Simon Harmer (18 wkts), James Porter (17 wkts), Samuel Cook (13 wkts).
Who are the top 2026 run-scorers for Essex and Surrey?
The leading run-scorers in 2026 are Daniel Lawrence (566 runs), Dominic Sibley (469 runs), Charlie Allison (431 runs).
Who are the top 2026 wicket-takers for Essex and Surrey?
The leading wicket-takers in 2026 are Matthew Fisher (19 wkts), James Porter (18 wkts), Shane Snater (16 wkts).
Where are Essex and Surrey in the standings?
Essex are 6th with 56 points and Surrey are 8th with 56 points.
What is the pitch like at County Ground?
At County Ground, 66.4% of wickets fall to seam and 29.9% to spin. The average match total is 935.8 runs with a first-innings average of 323.3. There are an average of 8.4 sixes per match and teams batting first have won 44.0% of matches.
What is Essex's record at County Ground?
Essex have won 20 and lost 5 from 39 matches at County Ground.
What is Surrey's record at County Ground?
Surrey have won 0 and lost 1 from 4 matches at County Ground.
What is the weather forecast at County Ground for Essex vs Surrey?
The forecast at County Ground for Essex vs Surrey is Clear Sky, 25°C, humidity 58%, wind 3.6 km/h.