Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers Predictions – NBA Playoff Preview | May 3, 2026

Game 7 arrives at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse on Sunday night. Cleveland and Toronto have split the first six games of this First Round series evenly at 3-3, with Toronto stealing Game 6 in Cleveland 112-110 on May 1. The Cavaliers are favoured at home but this series has been anything but predictable.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 PM ET. See the full NBA schedule on Statz.

Series Context

First Round, Game 7. Tied 3-3. Cleveland held the series lead at 3-2 heading into May 1 before Toronto won 112-110 on the road. The full series breakdown: Toronto won Game 1 (126-104), Cleveland won Game 3 (125-120) and Game 5 (a series-tying result), then Toronto took Game 6 on the road. Every game has been decided by fewer than 10 points except Game 1. Cleveland Cavaliers team stats on Statz.

Moneyline, Spread and Total

Odds via Polymarket: Cleveland -251 (1.40) | Toronto +251 (3.51). Spread: Cleveland -7.5 (-2 pts bounce) at 1.96, Toronto +7.5 at 2.04. Total: 211.5 – Over 2.02 / Under 1.98. The market expects a Cleveland win but Toronto has covered in recent outings. Build your NBA bet on the Statz Bet Builder.

Form

Cleveland’s recent form in this series: L, L, W, L, L (Games 6 back to 2 – they won Game 3, 5). In Game 6 they shot 110 to Toronto’s 112 – a two-point road upset for the Raptors. Toronto’s last five in-series results: W, L, W, W, L. Toronto are riding momentum heading into the decider.

Season-long: Cleveland finished 54-31 (63.5% win rate), averaging 118.9 points for, 115.4 against, spread of +3.5 per game. Toronto finished 47-38 (55.3%), averaging 114.6 points for, 111.9 against. Toronto Raptors team stats on Statz.

Pace and Shooting

Pace analysis: Cleveland at 97.3 (Average), Toronto at 96.1 (Average), differential of 1.2 in Cleveland’s favour. Shooting in playoff series: Cleveland FG% 46.3%, 3PT% 36.9%, FT% 76.8%. Toronto FG% 51.4%, 3PT% 38.6%, FT% 75.4%. Toronto’s shooting efficiency edge of +5.1% on FG% is the key tension – they are shooting better from the field but Cleveland holds a +1.4% free throw edge.

Season shooting splits: Cleveland 48.3% FG / 36.2% 3PT. Toronto 48.4% FG / 35.7% 3PT. Both near-identical overall – the playoff series has amplified Toronto’s efficiency.

Win Probability

Statz model: Cleveland 53%, Toronto 47%. Home court is the deciding edge in an otherwise even matchup. Full Statz game preview for CLE vs TOR.

Key Player Projections

Cleveland: Donovan Mitchell projected 24.4 pts / 5.3 reb / 3.9 ast. James Harden projected 21.4 pts / 4.2 reb / 6.1 ast. Evan Mobley projected 18.2 pts / 9.4 reb / 3.3 ast. Jarrett Allen projected 12.1 pts / 7.3 reb.

Toronto: RJ Barrett projected 22.5 pts / 6.7 reb / 3.3 ast. Scottie Barnes projected 21.6 pts / 6.2 reb / 7.8 ast. Darius Garland projected 19.1 pts / 2.6 reb / 6.0 ast. Brandon Ingram projected 17.7 pts / 4.5 reb / 3.3 ast.

Active Prop Streaks

The following streaks are active heading into Game 7:

• Jamal Shead (TOR) – Rebounds UNDER 2.5 in 15 consecutive games. L5 average: 0.8 reb.
• Sandro Mamukelashvili (TOR) – PRA OVER 9.5 in 13 straight. L5 average: 18 combined.
• Max Strus (CLE) – Blocks UNDER 0.5 in 12 straight. L5: 0 blocks per game.
• RJ Barrett (TOR) – PRA UNDER 33.5 in 10 straight. L5 average: 28.8.
• Sam Merrill (CLE) – PRA OVER 8.5 in 10 straight. L5 average: 15.4.
• Dennis Schroder (CLE) – Assists OVER 1.5 in 10 straight. L5 average: 5.4 ast.
• Brandon Ingram (TOR) – PRA OVER 21.5 in 7 straight. L5 average: 33.6. Also Points OVER 15 in 7 straight (L5 avg 22.3).
• Jarrett Allen (CLE) – Points OVER 11.5 in 5 straight. L5 average: 16.2 pts.

Milestones to Watch

• Sandro Mamukelashvili (TOR) – 12 straight games with 1+ three-pointers made. L5 average: 2.2 threes.
• Dennis Schroder (CLE) – 10 straight games with 2+ assists. L5 average: 4.6 ast.
• Brandon Ingram (TOR) – 7 straight games with 15+ points and 6 straight with 2+ assists.
• Jarrett Allen (CLE) – 5 straight games with 10+ points. L5 average: 16.2 pts.
• Ja’Kobe Walter (TOR) – 5 straight games with 2+ threes made. L5 average: 3.2 threes.

Injuries

Cleveland: No injury concerns listed. Full roster available for Game 7.

Toronto: Immanuel Quickley (G) is OUT with a right hamstring strain. He has suffered a setback during rehab and will not be available for the remainder of the First Round. With Quickley sidelined, Jamal Shead continues at starting point guard and Ja’Kobe Walter takes on elevated backcourt usage.

Check today’s full NBA schedule and injury updates on Statz.