Spurs vs Trail Blazers Predictions – NBA Playoff Preview | April 26, 2026

The San Antonio Spurs host the Portland Trail Blazers in Game 3 of their First Round playoff series, with the series locked at 1-1. This is a pivotal game – whoever wins takes control heading into the second half of the series. Check the full NBA playoff schedule for all tip-off times.

Odds and Lines

San Antonio are heavy favorites at -199 (implied 1.50) on Polymarket, with Portland priced as underdogs at +199 (2.99). The spread is Trail Blazers +5.5, with the total set at 219.5. Interestingly, Statz win probability slightly favors Portland at 53.0% versus San Antonio’s 47.0% – a notable divergence from the market.

Game Analysis

The San Antonio Spurs hold the pace advantage, running at 98.8 possessions per game versus Portland’s slower 95.5. The shooting splits are almost identical – SAS 46.6% FG and POR 46.4% – but Portland edges free throw shooting at 84.3% versus 76.3%. San Antonio’s slight edge at the line and from three (36.6% vs 35.0%) could matter in a tight game.

Injury Report

No significant injuries are listed for either team heading into Game 3, giving both coaches a full roster to work with.

Key Players to Watch

Deni Avdija has been Portland’s driving force and is in the form of his life. He projects for 27.4 points in Game 3 and has been hit after hit on every major prop line – PRA 36.5+ in seven straight (1.80), PA 29.5+ in seven straight (1.85), and Pts 23.5+ in seven straight (1.92). Jrue Holiday projects for 17.8 points and Scoot Henderson for 17.0 points. Donovan Clingan is a rebounding machine – Reb+Ast 10+ has landed 85.9% of the time (67/78) this season, and Reb 8+ at 87.2% (68/78). He has hit Reb+Ast 10.5+ in six straight and Reb 9.5+ in five straight.

For San Antonio, Victor Wembanyama is the key – projecting for 21.3 points with his two-way impact always a factor in big games. De’Aaron Fox projects for 16.8 points, Stephon Castle for 14.0 points. Julian Champagnie has a Reb 4+ hit rate of 79.3% (65/82), and Dylan Harper hits Reb 2+ at 88.6% (62/70) – reliable floor props for both.

Prop Streaks and Trends

Deni Avdija is the standout prop performer in this matchup by a distance. Three separate active streaks of 7+ games across different lines – PRA, PA, and points scored above his market. Donovan Clingan also has two active streaks running. Note that Avdija’s Reb 7.5 has gone UNDER in five straight (1.71), a counter-trend worth tracking.

Build your own same-game parlay combinations using the Statz Bet Builder Tool before tip-off.

Prediction

The Statz model gives Portland the slight edge despite the market pricing San Antonio heavily as home favorites. Avdija’s current form is elite and hard to fade. The 219.5 total looks appropriate given Portland’s slower pace dragging the game down. This is the game of the day from a pure value perspective if the model is right about Portland’s chances.