Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Predictions – NBA Playoff Preview | May 4, 2026
SebThe Western Conference Semifinals open Monday night in San Antonio. The Spurs swept through Portland in the First Round (4-0, winning Games 2-4 before a Game 5 home no-show), while Minnesota needed six games to eliminate Denver before this matchup. Game 1 tips off at 9:30 PM ET.
Series Context
Conference Semifinals, Game 1. Series not yet started. San Antonio (63-22, 74.1% win rate) are one of the most dominant teams in the Western Conference this season – best offensive efficiency and +8 point differential per game. Minnesota (51-34, 60.0%) come in as strong second-round opponents but arrive short-handed. Head-to-head this season: SAS lead 1-2, with the teams playing a similar style. San Antonio Spurs team stats on Statz.
Moneyline, Spread and Total
Odds via Ballybet: San Antonio -910 (1.11) | Minnesota +575 (6.75). Spread: San Antonio -14 at 1.93, Minnesota +14 at 1.88. Total: 217.5 – Over 1.92 / Under 1.89. The -910 moneyline reflects Anthony Edwards’ absence – without their best player Minnesota are massive underdogs. The 14-point spread is substantial; the total of 217.5 is the highest of Sunday/Monday’s slate. Build your NBA bet on the Statz Bet Builder.
Form
San Antonio’s recent results (all vs Portland): W (114-95), W (114-93), W (120-108), L (result vs Portland in Game 5 home fixture). Three dominant wins in a row before that home stumble. They rested players in a sealed-series game – that loss means nothing.
Minnesota’s recent results (vs Denver): W (110-98 – closed out series Game 6), L (113-125 Game 5), W (112-96), W (113-96). Won 3 of last 4. Competitive against a strong Denver team but now face a completely different challenge.
Season stats: San Antonio 119.4 points for, 111.4 against (+8.0 spread). Minnesota 117.3 for, 114.4 against (+2.9 spread). Minnesota Timberwolves team stats on Statz.
Pace and Shooting
The biggest analytical tension in this game: SAS pace 84.6 (Slow), MIN pace 99.5 (Average) – differential of -14.9, advantage Minnesota. Minnesota want to push the pace; San Antonio will try to slow it down. If SAS control tempo, their defensive efficiency advantage becomes pronounced.
Shooting: San Antonio FG% 46.6%, 3PT% 36.6%, FT% 76.3%. Minnesota FG% 48.4%, 3PT% 38.3%, FT% 78.1%. Minnesota lead in all shooting categories: +1.8% FG, +1.7% 3PT, +1.8% FT. Despite being heavy underdogs the shooting splits favour the Wolves – the margin is pace and roster depth. Full Statz game preview for SAS vs MIN.
Win Probability
Statz model: San Antonio 53%, Minnesota 47%. Surprisingly close despite the odds line – reflecting Minnesota’s shooting edge and pace advantage. The -910 moneyline is heavily influenced by Edwards’ absence rather than pure team quality differential.
Key Player Projections
San Antonio: Victor Wembanyama projected 28.0 pts / 12.0 reb / 3.4 ast. De’Aaron Fox projected 19.5 pts / 3.6 reb / 6.4 ast. Stephon Castle projected 18.3 pts / 5.7 reb / 7.7 ast. Devin Vassell projected 12.8 pts / 5.2 reb. Dylan Harper projected 12.7 pts / 3.8 reb.
Minnesota (without Edwards): Julius Randle projected 20.8 pts / 6.7 reb / 4.2 ast. Ayo Dosunmu projected 19.8 pts / 3.3 reb / 3.4 ast. Jaden McDaniels projected 18.5 pts / 5.8 reb / 2.3 ast. Leonard Miller projected 15.4 pts / 7.2 reb. Terrence Shannon Jr. projected 13.6 pts.
Active Prop Streaks
- Keldon Johnson (SAS) – Points OVER 8.5 in 12 consecutive games. L5 average: 15.6 pts.
- Keldon Johnson (SAS) – Points + Rebounds OVER 11.5 in 12 straight. L5 average: 21.8 combined.
- Stephon Castle (SAS) – Blocks UNDER 0.5 in 9 straight. L5 average: 0 blocks.
- Jaden McDaniels (MIN) – Points OVER 15 in 7 straight. L5 average: 18.1 pts.
- Dylan Harper (SAS) – Rebounds OVER 2.5 in 5 straight. L5 average: 3.8 reb.
- Mike Conley (MIN) – Rebounds UNDER 2.5 in 6 straight. L5 average: 1.4 reb.
- Victor Wembanyama (SAS) – Steals UNDER 1.5 in 5 straight. L5 average: 0.6 stl.
Milestones to Watch
- Keldon Johnson (SAS) – 12 straight games with 10+ points. L5 average: 16.1 pts.
- Jaden McDaniels (MIN) – 7 straight with 15+ points. L5 average: 18.1 pts – he becomes Minnesota’s primary scorer without Edwards.
- Julian Champagnie (SAS) – 6 straight games with 4+ rebounds. L5 average: 6.2 reb.
Injuries
San Antonio: No injury concerns listed. Full roster available including Wembanyama, Fox and Castle.
Minnesota: Anthony Edwards (G) is OUT with a bone bruise and hyperextension in his left knee. He suffered the injury in Game 4 vs Denver and is not expected back until at least Game 3 of this series (return date May 9). Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) is OUT for the entire playoffs. Ayo Dosunmu (calf) is day-to-day. Without Edwards, McDaniels, Randle, Shannon and Dosunmu must carry the offensive load.