Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors Predictions – NBA Playoff Preview | May 3, 2026

The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Toronto Raptors in Game 6 of their First Round series on Sunday, May 3 (tip-off 4:00 AM BST). Cleveland leads 3-2 and can close out at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Toronto arrive without their starting point guard but have won two straight. Full schedule on the NBA schedule page.

Series Context and Form

Cleveland finished the regular season W54-L31, averaging 118.9 PPG and allowing 115.4. The Cavaliers lead the rebound battle 43.8 to 41.8. Toronto (W47-L38, 114.6 PPG, 111.9 allowed) won Games 3 (93-89) and 4 (126-104) – both coming as the higher-scoring team – before Cleveland reclaimed home court with a 125-120 Game 5 win. Toronto edges assists on the season 29.4 to 28.0. Season shooting: CLE 48.3% FG / 36.2% 3P / 14.3 3PM, TOR 48.4% FG / 35.7% 3P / 11.4 3PM – nearly identical.

Odds – Cavaliers vs Raptors

Cleveland are firm favourites at -264 (1.38 decimal) on the moneyline. Toronto are at +264 (3.64 decimal). The spread is Cavaliers -8.5, Raptors +8.5. The total is 211.5 – 2.02 over / 1.98 under (Polymarket) – the highest total of the four playoff games this weekend. Win probability models give Cleveland 57.5%, Toronto 42.5%. Track live odds and prop lines via the Statz Bet Builder Tool.

Pace and Shooting Splits

Cleveland plays faster (99.5 possessions per 100) than Toronto (95.9) – a 3.6-possession differential. The Raptors have a slight assist edge (29.4 vs 28.0), reflecting better ball movement. However, Cleveland’s pace advantage is significant in a series-closing situation at home.

Key Players and Projections

Donovan Mitchell tops Cleveland’s projections at 25.4 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.2 assists. James Harden adds 21.5 points and 5.5 assists. Evan Mobley projects for 16.2 points and 8.4 rebounds. Jarrett Allen contributes 12.5 points and 7.6 rebounds inside.

For Toronto, RJ Barrett leads at 22.6 points and 6.1 rebounds. Scottie Barnes projects for 20.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists – elevated playmaking with Immanuel Quickley out. Darius Garland projects to 19.1 points and 6.0 assists, Brandon Ingram to 17.7 points.

Active Prop Streaks and Milestones

Toronto’s Jamal Shead has a 15-game under streak on rebounds 2.5+ (avg 0.8), plus 5-game under streaks on PRA 17.5+ (avg 11.6), PA 15.5+ (avg 10.8), PR 11.5+ (avg 6.6) and points 8.5+ (avg 5.8). RJ Barrett carries a 10-game under streak on PRA 33.5+ (avg 28.8) and 6-game under on PR 29.5+ (avg 25.8). On the over side, Jarrett Allen has hit PR 19.5+ in 5 straight (avg 25.0) and points 12.5+ in 5 straight (avg 16.2). Milestones: Allen has scored 10+ in 5 straight (avg 16.2). Toronto’s Ja’Kobe Walter has hit 2+ threes in 5 straight games (avg 3.2). All streaks at the Statz Bet Builder Tool.

Injuries

Immanuel Quickley (TOR, G) is out for Game 6 with a right hamstring strain and would need Toronto to advance for a return this season. Jamal Shead starts at point guard. Cleveland have no injury concerns.

Prediction

Cleveland hold every structural advantage: homecourt, superior pace, 57.5% win probability, and full health vs Toronto’s Quickley absence. The 211.5 total reflects Cleveland’s offensive output and pace. The Cavaliers are the right-side pick to close out. See the full Game 6 preview on Statz, track stats at Donovan Mitchell’s profile, and use the Statz Bet Builder for prop lines.