Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors Predictions – NBA Playoff Preview | April 23, 2026

The Toronto Raptors host the Cleveland Cavaliers in NBA First Round Game 3 on April 23, with Cleveland holding a commanding 2-0 series lead. Toronto need a win here to avoid going down 3-0 – a near-impossible hole to climb out of in a playoff series.

Series Context

Cleveland have won both games in this series and are 1.74 on the moneyline (via Polymarket/Bet365) even on the road. Toronto are 2.35. The Raptors hold a 3-2 edge in the last 5 regular season head-to-head meetings, but the Cavaliers have looked a different team in the playoffs, running at a pace of 112.4 and generating 120.7 offensive rating over their last 10 games.

Odds and Lines

Moneyline: TOR 2.35 / CLE 1.74. Spread: TOR +3.5. Total: 219.5. Cleveland are favored on the road, a sign of how one-sided this series has been despite Toronto’s home court. The 219.5 total is the highest across tonight’s slate, driven by both teams’ fast pace and high offensive ratings.

Pace and Shooting

Cleveland pace at 112.4, Toronto at 108.4 – the Cavaliers are faster by 4.0 possessions and are dictating the style of play. Toronto actually shoot better from the field (51.4% vs CLE’s 46.3%) and from three (38.6% vs 36.9%), but the offensive gap tells the real story: CLE 120.7 versus TOR 115.8. Defensive ratings favor Toronto in theory (112.4 vs CLE 116), but Cleveland’s firepower has overpowered that advantage through two games.

Key Players and H2H Scoring

Donovan Mitchell has been the defining player in this series – 30, 32, 17, and 31 points in recent head-to-head games. Toronto’s best responses have come from Brandon Ingram (37 and 20) and Scottie Barnes (26 and 28). Evan Mobley chipped in 29 in one matchup, adding frontcourt presence to Cleveland’s offensive options.

Prop Streak to Watch

Jarrett Allen (CLE) has cleared the Points+Rebounds+Assists 21.5 line in 5 consecutive games, averaging 25.6 across that run (recent: 24, 23, 29, 24, 28). That is consistent production and a prop worth tracking via the Statz Bet Builder.

Injuries

No injuries reported for either team heading into Game 3.

Verdict

Toronto need a big night from Ingram and Barnes to stay alive in this series, and home court gives them a genuine shot. But Cleveland’s pace, Mitchell’s scoring, and Jarrett Allen’s recent form make the Cavaliers the safer pick. The 219.5 total is high but justified given how both teams have played. CLE winning and the total going over is the data-supported outcome here.

Full stats and projections at the Statz Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors preview. Follow all games on the NBA schedule.