Kazakhstan host the Faroe Islands at 15:00 UK on Tuesday 6 October at the Stadion Karasay, ten days after the two drew 1-1 in Tórshavn.
That was the first of three. The Faroe Islands have now drawn 1-1 three times in a row, against Kazakhstan, Moldova and Slovakia, which is as consistent as a national side gets.
Kazakhstan have taken a point from three: the 1-1 in the Faroes, a 2-1 defeat in Slovakia and a 1-2 home defeat to Moldova on Friday. They are forty-first of 54 for goals conceded at 1.67 a game and forty-third for shots on target at 2.67, but ninth for corners at 5.67, so they get the ball into the box more than they finish anything from it.
The Faroe Islands have three draws and three identical scorelines. Nineteenth of 54 for goals conceded at one a game, twenty-sixth for scoring at one, and none of their matches has gone over 2.5 goals, which is joint lowest of 54. Both sides have had goals at both ends in every match, which puts them joint first on that rate. Team sheets are not confirmed.
Match markets are not yet priced for this fixture, so there is no model-versus-price comparison to make. The competition rankings carry it instead.
These two are closer than the league table suggests. Both score one goal a game. Kazakhstan concede 1.67 to the Faroes' one. On shots on target the Faroes lead 4 to 2.67, and on corners Kazakhstan lead 5.67 to 3.67.
The one number that separates them is the total. The Faroes have been in no match past two and a half goals; Kazakhstan have been in two of three. Both have seen scoring at both ends every time out, which is the rarest record either of them holds and the reason the 1-1 keeps recurring.
Across the competition as a whole, both teams score in 46.6 per cent of Nations League matches against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues. These two are running at a hundred per cent off three games each, which is a small sample doing a lot of work.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
Andrias Edmundsson has had two or more shots in three straight games for the visitors, which is the longest attacking run in either squad.
For Kazakhstan, Nuraly Alip has made two or more tackles in three straight. Kazakhstan foul slightly more as a team, eighteenth of 54 at 12.67 a game against the Faroes' thirty-fifth at 11, and pick up two cards a game to 1.33.
The corner markets are the clearest team-level gap: 5.67 a game for the hosts against 3.67. With no prices up yet, the live fixture page is where they will appear.
Two sides with one goal a game each, both of whom have seen scoring at both ends in every match they have played, meeting for the second time in ten days after a 1-1.
The read is another close, low-scoring game. The Faroes' three straight 1-1 draws are the most striking thing on this page and the hardest to argue with.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.