Albania host San Marino at 19:45 UK on Tuesday 6 October at the Elbasan Arena, a week after winning 3-0 in San Marino.
San Marino have conceded fourteen goals in three matches, which is 4.67 a game and the worst rate of all 54 teams in the competition. They have not scored.
Albania beat Belarus 2-0 to open the group, won 3-0 in San Marino and were beaten 2-1 in Finland on Saturday. Tenth of 54 for scoring at two a game, twelfth for goals conceded at 0.67 and joint second for clean sheet rate with two from three. Ninth for corners at 5.67 a game and thirteenth for shots on target at 5.33.
San Marino have lost all three: 0-7 at home to Finland, 0-3 at home to Albania and 0-4 in Belarus on Saturday. Fifty-first of 54 for scoring, fifty-fourth and last for goals conceded, and fiftieth for shots on target at 1.67 a game. They do foul at a mid-table rate, sixteenth of 54 at 13.33. Team sheets are not confirmed.
Match markets are not yet priced for this fixture, so there is no model-versus-price comparison to make. The competition rankings carry it instead.
There is no meaningful comparison to draw between these two on the rankings. Albania score two goals a game to nil, concede 0.67 to 4.67, and have 5.33 shots on target a game to 1.67.
The only column where San Marino are not last or near it is fouls, where they sit sixteenth of 54 at 13.33 a game, and cards, where they are fourteenth at 2.67. For a side being beaten this heavily, that is the shape of a team defending deep for ninety minutes and stopping what it can.
Every San Marino match this window has gone over 2.5 goals, which is first of 54 on that rate and entirely a function of what they have conceded. None has had goals at both ends, which is joint lowest. Those two records together describe the fixture better than any projection would.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
Rey Manaj has had two or more shots in three straight games for Albania, the only attacking streak of that length in either squad.
The corner count is where Albania's advantage is most consistent rather than most dramatic: 5.67 a game, ninth of 54, against San Marino's three. A side defending its box for the whole match concedes set pieces rather than chances.
Neither match nor player markets are priced here yet. The live fixture page carries them as they open.
Albania won this fixture 3-0 away from home ten days ago and are at home now. San Marino have conceded fourteen goals in three matches and scored none.
The read is a comfortable home win. The interest, such as it is, sits in the corner and shot counts rather than the result, and in whether Albania can match the four Belarus put past the same defence on Saturday.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.