Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
France overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the World Cup in 2026, with 10 goals from chances worth 4.1 xG, a gap of 5.9. The Netherlands were next on 4.4.
Ecuador underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the World Cup in 2026, with 2 goals from chances worth 6.2 xG, a shortfall of 4.2. Turkey were next on 3.2.
Mexico and France were the luckiest sides in the World Cup in 2026, both 3.9 clear of their expected points, each taking 9 points from performances worth 5.1 xPts. Croatia were next on 2.9.
Turkey were the unluckiest side in the World Cup in 2026, with 3 points from performances worth 6.5 xPts, 3.5 short of what they deserved. Uruguay were next on 3.3.
Spain would be top of the World Cup in 2026 on expected points, with 7.1 xPts from 5.6 xG created and 0.7 conceded across three matches. Argentina were next on 6.8.
Belgium created the most xG in the World Cup in 2026, 7.5 from three matches, 2.5 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Canada were next on 7.3.
Tunisia created the least xG in the World Cup in 2026, 1.0 from three matches, 0.3 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Paraguay were next on 1.2.
Qatar conceded the most xG in the World Cup in 2026, 8.5 from three matches, 2.8 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Curacao were next on 8.3.
Spain conceded the least xG in the World Cup in 2026, 0.7 from three matches, 0.2 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Argentina were next on 1.5.
World Cup teams averaged 1.28 xG a game in 2026, from the 72 matches played, and scored 1.49 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.19 xG a game in 2022.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 3 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | +5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 2 | Argentina | 3 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | +7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 |
| 3 | Belgium | 3 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | +4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 4 | Turkey | 3 | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 | 5 | 2.6 | +2.4 | -2 | 3.6 | -5.6 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 |
| 5 | Canada | 3 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | +5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 6 | England | 3 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | +4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 7 | Netherlands | 3 | 10 | 5.6 | +4.4 | 4 | 2.4 | +1.6 | +6 | 3.2 | +2.8 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| 8 | Switzerland | 3 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 | +4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| 9 | Brazil | 3 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 | +6 | 2.9 | +3.1 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 10 | Morocco | 3 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | +3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 |
| 11 | Ecuador | 3 | 2 | 6.2 | -4.2 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | +0 | 2.7 | -2.7 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 |
| 12 | Colombia | 3 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | +3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| 13 | United States | 3 | 8 | 4.8 | +3.2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | +4 | 1.7 | +2.3 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| 14 | Senegal | 3 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 | +2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 |
| 15 | Uruguay | 3 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 1.9 | +2.1 | -1 | 2.1 | -3.1 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 |
| 16 | Côte d'Ivoire | 3 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | +2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
| 17 | Korea Republic | 3 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | -1 | 1.4 | -2.4 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 |
| 18 | Mexico | 3 | 6 | 3.3 | +2.7 | 0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | +6 | 1.3 | +4.7 | 9 | 5.1 | +3.9 |
| 19 | France | 3 | 10 | 4.1 | +5.9 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | +8 | 1.3 | +6.7 | 9 | 5.1 | +3.9 |
| 20 | Germany | 3 | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | +6 | 2.5 | +3.5 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 21 | Portugal | 3 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | +5 | 1.8 | +3.2 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 22 | Japan | 3 | 7 | 3.4 | +3.6 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | +4 | 1.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 23 | Norway | 3 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | +1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 |
| 24 | Algeria | 3 | 5 | 3.4 | +1.6 | 7 | 2.5 | +4.5 | -2 | 0.9 | -2.9 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 25 | Congo DR | 3 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 26 | Sweden | 3 | 7 | 3.6 | +3.4 | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | +0 | -0.2 | +0.2 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| 27 | Iran | 3 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | +0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 28 | Egypt | 3 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | +2 | -0.4 | +2.4 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 |
| 29 | Ghana | 3 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | +0 | -0.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| 30 | Austria | 3 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | +0 | -1.2 | +1.2 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| 31 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
| 32 | Panama | 3 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | -4 | -1.2 | -2.8 | 0 | 3.1 | -3.1 |
| 33 | Scotland | 3 | 1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | -3 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| 34 | Croatia | 3 | 5 | 2.2 | +2.8 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | +0 | -2.3 | +2.3 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 |
| 35 | Australia | 3 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | +0 | -1.8 | +1.8 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
| 36 | Cape Verde Islands | 3 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 | +0 | -2.9 | +2.9 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 37 | Czech Republic | 3 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | -4 | -2.1 | -1.9 | 1 | 2.7 | -1.7 |
| 38 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3 | 5 | 2.0 | +3.0 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | -1 | -2.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 |
| 39 | New Zealand | 3 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | -6 | -5.1 | -0.9 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 |
| 40 | Haiti | 3 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | -6 | -4.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 |
| 41 | Qatar | 3 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 | -8 | -6.8 | -1.2 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 |
| 42 | Paraguay | 3 | 2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | -2 | -3.6 | +1.6 | 4 | 1.7 | +2.3 |
| 43 | Uzbekistan | 3 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 11 | 6.2 | +4.8 | -9 | -4.6 | -4.4 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 |
| 44 | Jordan | 3 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | -5 | -4.2 | -0.8 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
| 45 | Iraq | 3 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 12 | 7.4 | +4.6 | -11 | -5.1 | -5.9 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
| 46 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | -4 | -4.2 | +0.2 | 2 | 1.4 | +0.6 |
| 47 | Tunisia | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 12 | 5.6 | +6.4 | -10 | -4.6 | -5.4 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 |
| 48 | Curacao | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | -8 | -6.8 | -1.2 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 |