Chile have the biggest shortfall in the WC Qualification South America: 11 points from chances worth 21.8 xPts, a gap of 10.8. At the other end, Ecuador have taken 32 points from an xPts figure of 25.5, 6.5 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 9 | 18 | 19.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | +13 | 14.7 | -1.7 | 20 | 19.9 | +0.1 |
| 2 | Argentina | 9 | 20 | 13.5 | +6.5 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | +16 | 9.1 | +6.9 | 22 | 18.9 | +3.1 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 9 | 11 | 12.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 | +9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | 21 | 17.2 | +3.8 |
| 4 | Colombia | 9 | 16 | 15.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | +9 | 7.4 | +1.6 | 18 | 16.9 | +1.1 |
| 5 | Paraguay | 9 | 9 | 12.3 | -3.3 | 3 | 6.4 | -3.4 | +6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 20 | 15.8 | +4.2 |
| 6 | Uruguay | 9 | 16 | 11.6 | +4.4 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | +12 | 5.7 | +6.3 | 20 | 15.7 | +4.3 |
| 7 | Bolivia | 9 | 13 | 12.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | +6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 17 | 15.7 | +1.3 |
| 8 | Chile | 9 | 8 | 9.9 | -1.9 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | +1 | 3.8 | -2.8 | 10 | 14.8 | -4.8 |
| 9 | Venezuela | 9 | 12 | 11.1 | +0.9 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | +4 | 0.9 | +3.1 | 16 | 13.1 | +2.9 |
| 10 | Peru | 9 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | 7 | 9.8 | -2.8 | -1 | -1.9 | +0.9 | 10 | 10.7 | -0.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 9 | 11 | 8.1 | +2.9 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | +5 | 1.2 | +3.8 | 16 | 13.1 | +2.9 |
| 2 | Colombia | 9 | 12 | 11.7 | +0.3 | 11 | 10.7 | +0.3 | +1 | 1.0 | +0.0 | 10 | 13.1 | -3.1 |
| 3 | Brazil | 9 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 | -6 | -1.5 | -4.5 | 8 | 11.0 | -3.0 |
| 4 | Paraguay | 9 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | 7 | 11.8 | -4.8 | -2 | -4.5 | +2.5 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 |
| 5 | Ecuador | 9 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | 3 | 10.8 | -7.8 | +0 | -5.7 | +5.7 | 11 | 8.4 | +2.6 |
| 6 | Uruguay | 9 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 8 | 11.9 | -3.9 | -2 | -5.6 | +3.6 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | Venezuela | 9 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 20 | 15.0 | +5.0 | -14 | -8.3 | -5.7 | 2 | 7.4 | -5.4 |
| 8 | Chile | 9 | 1 | 6.6 | -5.6 | 20 | 17.1 | +2.9 | -19 | -10.6 | -8.4 | 1 | 7.1 | -6.1 |
| 9 | Bolivia | 9 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 28 | 16.5 | +11.5 | -24 | -11.7 | -12.3 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 |
| 10 | Peru | 9 | 0 | 3.8 | -3.8 | 14 | 16.2 | -2.2 | -14 | -12.4 | -1.6 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolivia | 5 | 3 | 7.3 | -4.3 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | -2 | 3.4 | -5.4 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 2 | Colombia | 5 | 12 | 7.9 | +4.1 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | +6 | 2.4 | +3.6 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 |
| 3 | Argentina | 5 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | +6 | 2.0 | +4.0 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 |
| 4 | Brazil | 5 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | +0 | 3.7 | -3.7 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 5 | Paraguay | 5 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | +2 | -0.4 | +2.4 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 |
| 6 | Ecuador | 5 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 3.1 | -3.1 | +1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 7 | Uruguay | 5 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 2 | 5.8 | -3.8 | +3 | -0.2 | +3.2 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 |
| 8 | Venezuela | 5 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | 11 | 6.9 | +4.1 | -5 | -1.4 | -3.6 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | Chile | 5 | 0 | 3.0 | -3.0 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | -6 | -5.8 | -0.2 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 |
| 10 | Peru | 5 | 0 | 3.3 | -3.3 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 | -5 | -3.9 | -1.1 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 |
Argentina overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the WC Qualification South America in 2026, with 31 goals from chances worth 21.6 xG, a gap of 9.4. Uruguay were next on 4.1.
Chile underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the WC Qualification South America in 2026, with 9 goals from chances worth 16.5 xG, a shortfall of 7.5. Paraguay and Peru were next on 5.7.
Ecuador were the luckiest side in the WC Qualification South America in 2026, with 32 points from performances worth 25.5 xPts, 6.5 more than their chances deserved. Argentina were next on 6.0.
Chile were the unluckiest side in the WC Qualification South America in 2026, with 11 points from performances worth 21.8 xPts, 10.8 short of what they deserved. Peru were next on 3.4.
Argentina were also top of the WC Qualification South America in 2026 on expected points, with 32.0 xPts from 21.6 xG created and 11.2 conceded across 18 matches. Brazil were next on 30.9.
Brazil created the most xG in the WC Qualification South America in 2026, 27.2 from 18 matches, 1.5 a game against a competition average of 1.1. Colombia were next on 27.0.
Peru created the least xG in the WC Qualification South America in 2026, 11.7 from 18 matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.1. Chile were next on 16.5.
Peru conceded the most xG in the WC Qualification South America in 2026, 25.9 from 18 matches, 1.4 a game against a competition average of 1.1. Venezuela were next on 25.1.
Argentina conceded the least xG in the WC Qualification South America in 2026, 11.2 from 18 matches, 0.6 a game against a competition average of 1.1. Brazil were next on 14.0.
WC Qualification South America teams averaged 1.08 xG a game in 2026, from the 90 matches played, and scored 1.02 goals a game from it.
WC Qualification South America teams created more xG at home in 2026, 1.40 a game against 0.75 away, a home advantage of +0.65.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 18 | 31 | 21.6 | +9.4 | 10 | 11.2 | -1.2 | +21 | 10.4 | +10.6 | 38 | 32.0 | +6.0 |
| 2 | Brazil | 18 | 24 | 27.2 | -3.2 | 17 | 14.0 | +3.0 | +7 | 13.2 | -6.2 | 28 | 30.9 | -2.9 |
| 3 | Colombia | 18 | 28 | 27.0 | +1.0 | 18 | 18.6 | -0.6 | +10 | 8.4 | +1.6 | 28 | 29.9 | -1.9 |
| 4 | Ecuador | 18 | 14 | 17.1 | -3.1 | 5 | 15.3 | -10.3 | +9 | 1.8 | +7.2 | 32 | 25.5 | +6.5 |
| 5 | Paraguay | 18 | 14 | 19.7 | -5.7 | 10 | 18.2 | -8.2 | +4 | 1.4 | +2.6 | 28 | 24.6 | +3.4 |
| 6 | Uruguay | 18 | 22 | 17.9 | +4.1 | 12 | 17.8 | -5.8 | +10 | 0.1 | +9.9 | 28 | 23.6 | +4.4 |
| 7 | Chile | 18 | 9 | 16.5 | -7.5 | 27 | 23.2 | +3.8 | -18 | -6.8 | -11.2 | 11 | 21.8 | -10.8 |
| 8 | Bolivia | 18 | 17 | 17.7 | -0.7 | 35 | 24.4 | +10.6 | -18 | -6.8 | -11.2 | 20 | 20.9 | -0.9 |
| 9 | Venezuela | 18 | 18 | 17.7 | +0.3 | 28 | 25.1 | +2.9 | -10 | -7.4 | -2.6 | 18 | 20.5 | -2.5 |
| 10 | Peru | 18 | 6 | 11.7 | -5.7 | 21 | 25.9 | -4.9 | -15 | -14.3 | -0.7 | 12 | 15.4 | -3.4 |