Georgia have the biggest shortfall in the WC Qualification Europe: 3 points from chances worth 7.9 xPts, a gap of 4.9. At the other end, Norway have taken 24 points from an xPts figure of 18.6, 5.4 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatia | 4 | 15 | 13.6 | +1.4 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | +13 | 11.7 | +1.3 | 12 | 10.7 | +1.3 |
| 2 | Belgium | 4 | 17 | 13.6 | +3.4 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | +14 | 11.1 | +2.9 | 10 | 10.5 | -0.5 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 4 | 17 | 12.0 | +5.0 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | +16 | 10.1 | +5.9 | 10 | 10.1 | -0.1 |
| 4 | England | 4 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | +9 | 7.2 | +1.8 | 12 | 9.7 | +2.3 |
| 5 | Poland | 4 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | +5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 |
| 6 | Italy | 4 | 11 | 11.6 | -0.6 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | +7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | Norway | 4 | 23 | 12.9 | +10.1 | 2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | +21 | 11.4 | +9.6 | 12 | 8.9 | +3.1 |
| 8 | Romania | 4 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | +8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 |
| 9 | Austria | 4 | 14 | 11.7 | +2.3 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Czech Republic | 4 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | +9 | 6.3 | +2.7 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 |
| 11 | France | 3 | 9 | 9.8 | -0.8 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | +8 | 9.1 | -1.1 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 |
| 12 | Wales | 4 | 15 | 10.5 | +4.5 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | +9 | 5.7 | +3.3 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 |
| 13 | Spain | 3 | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | +6 | 8.9 | -2.9 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| 14 | Germany | 3 | 13 | 8.8 | +4.2 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | +12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 15 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | +3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 |
| 16 | Serbia | 4 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | -2 | 0.6 | -2.6 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| 17 | Portugal | 3 | 12 | 10.9 | +1.1 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | +9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 18 | Albania | 4 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | +2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 |
| 19 | Switzerland | 3 | 11 | 4.9 | +6.1 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | +10 | 3.5 | +6.5 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 20 | Israel | 4 | 12 | 8.8 | +3.2 | 11 | 6.8 | +4.2 | +1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| 21 | Cyprus | 4 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | +0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 |
| 22 | Republic of Ireland | 3 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | +3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| 23 | Finland | 4 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | -1 | 1.8 | -2.8 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 |
| 24 | North Macedonia | 4 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | +5 | 0.5 | +4.5 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 25 | Faroe Islands | 4 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 | +5 | 0.5 | +4.5 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 |
| 26 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | +2 | -0.1 | +2.1 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 27 | Montenegro | 4 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 | +0 | -0.6 | +0.6 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 |
| 28 | Denmark | 3 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | +2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 |
| 29 | Slovakia | 3 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | 0 | 2.6 | -2.6 | +5 | 0.9 | +4.1 | 9 | 4.9 | +4.1 |
| 30 | Ukraine | 3 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 |
| 31 | Turkey | 3 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | -1 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| 32 | Iceland | 3 | 10 | 4.8 | +5.2 | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | +3 | 1.0 | +2.0 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 33 | Malta | 4 | 2 | 5.2 | -3.2 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | -6 | -1.6 | -4.4 | 1 | 4.6 | -3.6 |
| 34 | Georgia | 3 | 5 | 3.4 | +1.6 | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 | -2 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 |
| 35 | Latvia | 4 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 | -6 | -2.4 | -3.6 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 |
| 36 | Kosovo | 3 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 | +2 | 0.3 | +1.7 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 |
| 37 | Greece | 3 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | +2 | 0.4 | +1.6 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
| 38 | Northern Ireland | 3 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
| 39 | Hungary | 3 | 6 | 3.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 | +0 | -0.9 | +0.9 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| 40 | Scotland | 3 | 9 | 3.8 | +5.2 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | +5 | -1.4 | +6.4 | 9 | 3.4 | +5.6 |
| 41 | Armenia | 3 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | -5 | -4.2 | -0.8 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| 42 | Slovenia | 3 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | -2 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 |
| 43 | Luxembourg | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | -5 | -1.8 | -3.2 | 0 | 2.8 | -2.8 |
| 44 | Sweden | 3 | 1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | -3 | -2.3 | -0.7 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 |
| 45 | Estonia | 4 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 8 | 9.2 | -1.2 | -5 | -6.1 | +1.1 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
| 46 | Lithuania | 4 | 5 | 2.7 | +2.3 | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 | -3 | -5.7 | +2.7 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 |
| 47 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | -4 | -3.7 | -0.3 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 48 | Andorra | 4 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | -5 | -7.3 | +2.3 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 |
| 49 | Moldova | 4 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 14 | 11.4 | +2.6 | -12 | -8.7 | -3.3 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
| 50 | Belarus | 3 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | -8 | -6.1 | -1.9 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 |
| 51 | Bulgaria | 3 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 | -7 | -6.2 | -0.8 | 3 | 0.8 | +2.2 |
| 52 | Liechtenstein | 4 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 12 | 10.0 | +2.0 | -12 | -9.2 | -2.8 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| 53 | Gibraltar | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.0 | 14 | 13.5 | +0.5 | -13 | -12.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| 54 | San Marino | 4 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 19 | 15.5 | +3.5 | -18 | -13.2 | -4.8 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 4 | 13 | 12.6 | +0.4 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | +13 | 11.1 | +1.9 | 12 | 10.7 | +1.3 |
| 2 | Belgium | 4 | 12 | 11.8 | +0.2 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | +8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 |
| 3 | Norway | 4 | 14 | 12.6 | +1.4 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | +11 | 9.1 | +1.9 | 12 | 9.7 | +2.3 |
| 4 | Croatia | 4 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.3 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | +9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 |
| 5 | Netherlands | 4 | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | +7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 |
| 6 | Spain | 3 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | +13 | 8.3 | +4.7 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 |
| 7 | Italy | 4 | 10 | 8.6 | +1.4 | 8 | 3.4 | +4.6 | +2 | 5.2 | -3.2 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 8 | Czech Republic | 4 | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 | +1 | 5.1 | -4.1 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 9 | France | 3 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | +4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 |
| 10 | Denmark | 3 | 11 | 7.6 | +3.4 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | +7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| 11 | Austria | 4 | 8 | 8.1 | -0.1 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | +6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 12 | Portugal | 3 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | 4 | 2.4 | +1.6 | +4 | 6.9 | -2.9 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Wales | 4 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | +1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| 14 | Serbia | 4 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | +1 | 2.1 | -1.1 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 |
| 15 | Cyprus | 4 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 |
| 16 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | +7 | 1.4 | +5.6 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
| 17 | Greece | 3 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 | 6 | 2.7 | +3.3 | -4 | 2.0 | -6.0 | 1 | 5.5 | -4.5 |
| 18 | Poland | 4 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +2 | 0.0 | +2.0 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| 19 | Scotland | 3 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | +1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 |
| 20 | Israel | 4 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | -2 | -0.7 | -1.3 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| 21 | Switzerland | 3 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 | +2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 |
| 22 | Germany | 3 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | +1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
| 23 | Romania | 4 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | +1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
| 24 | Montenegro | 4 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 | 11 | 6.9 | +4.1 | -9 | -1.6 | -7.4 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 |
| 25 | Finland | 4 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 | -5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 26 | Albania | 4 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | +0 | -1.7 | +1.7 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 |
| 27 | Kazakhstan | 4 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | -6 | -3.8 | -2.2 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 28 | Slovenia | 3 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 | -3 | 0.4 | -3.4 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 |
| 29 | North Macedonia | 4 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | -2 | -4.3 | +2.3 | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 |
| 30 | Hungary | 3 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | +1 | -1.2 | +2.2 | 5 | 3.6 | +1.4 |
| 31 | Turkey | 3 | 11 | 3.5 | +7.5 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | +6 | -1.3 | +7.3 | 7 | 3.6 | +3.4 |
| 32 | Georgia | 3 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | -6 | -2.2 | -3.8 | 0 | 3.5 | -3.5 |
| 33 | Iceland | 3 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | -1 | -1.9 | +0.9 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 |
| 34 | Kosovo | 3 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | -1 | -1.2 | +0.2 | 6 | 3.3 | +2.7 |
| 35 | Northern Ireland | 3 | 4 | 2.1 | +1.9 | 5 | 3.3 | +1.7 | -1 | -1.2 | +0.2 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 |
| 36 | Slovakia | 3 | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 | 8 | 4.4 | +3.6 | -7 | -2.1 | -4.9 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| 37 | Lithuania | 4 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | -6 | -4.4 | -1.6 | 1 | 3.1 | -2.1 |
| 38 | Faroe Islands | 4 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | -3 | -4.8 | +1.8 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| 39 | Latvia | 4 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | -4 | -5.3 | +1.3 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| 40 | Sweden | 3 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 | 8 | 3.8 | +4.2 | -5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 41 | Ukraine | 3 | 6 | 2.3 | +3.7 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | -2 | -3.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
| 42 | Estonia | 4 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 13 | 10.2 | +2.8 | -8 | -7.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 43 | Republic of Ireland | 3 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | -1 | -4.0 | +3.0 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 |
| 44 | Belarus | 3 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | -5 | -4.9 | -0.1 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 |
| 45 | Malta | 4 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 11 | 12.7 | -1.7 | -9 | -10.2 | +1.2 | 4 | 1.8 | +2.2 |
| 46 | Luxembourg | 3 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | -7 | -5.6 | -1.4 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 |
| 47 | Andorra | 4 | 2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 | -8 | -5.9 | -2.1 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 |
| 48 | Moldova | 4 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | 18 | 14.8 | +3.2 | -15 | -12.7 | -2.3 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 |
| 49 | Gibraltar | 4 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | 14 | 13.5 | +0.5 | -12 | -12.0 | +0.0 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| 50 | Armenia | 3 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 | -11 | -7.6 | -3.4 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| 51 | Bulgaria | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 | -9 | -7.1 | -1.9 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 52 | Azerbaijan | 3 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | -9 | -7.2 | -1.8 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| 53 | Liechtenstein | 4 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 19 | 11.4 | +7.6 | -19 | -10.9 | -8.1 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 54 | San Marino | 4 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 20 | 16.5 | +3.5 | -19 | -15.1 | -3.9 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 5 | 18 | 16.4 | +1.6 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | +15 | 14.5 | +0.5 | 11 | 13.7 | -2.7 |
| 2 | Spain | 5 | 18 | 16.8 | +1.2 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | +16 | 14.2 | +1.8 | 13 | 13.5 | -0.5 |
| 3 | France | 5 | 14 | 15.2 | -1.2 | 4 | 2.1 | +1.9 | +10 | 13.1 | -3.1 | 13 | 13.4 | -0.4 |
| 4 | England | 5 | 16 | 11.6 | +4.4 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | +16 | 9.7 | +6.3 | 15 | 12.1 | +2.9 |
| 5 | Croatia | 5 | 13 | 13.8 | -0.8 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | +10 | 11.2 | -1.2 | 13 | 11.9 | +1.1 |
| 6 | Norway | 5 | 25 | 17.4 | +7.6 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | +22 | 14.4 | +7.6 | 15 | 11.6 | +3.4 |
| 7 | Germany | 5 | 16 | 11.7 | +4.3 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | +15 | 9.1 | +5.9 | 15 | 11.4 | +3.6 |
| 8 | Netherlands | 5 | 16 | 11.5 | +4.5 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | +13 | 7.5 | +5.5 | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Portugal | 5 | 15 | 15.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | +8 | 9.8 | -1.8 | 10 | 11.0 | -1.0 |
| 10 | Denmark | 5 | 16 | 12.2 | +3.8 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | +9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | 10 | 10.9 | -0.9 |
| 11 | Italy | 5 | 14 | 12.5 | +1.5 | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 | +5 | 7.2 | -2.2 | 12 | 10.8 | +1.2 |
| 12 | Switzerland | 5 | 10 | 7.0 | +3.0 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | +8 | 4.1 | +3.9 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 |
| 13 | Czech Republic | 5 | 10 | 10.9 | -0.9 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | +3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 7 | 9.5 | -2.5 |
| 14 | Austria | 5 | 15 | 11.3 | +3.7 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | +12 | 7.0 | +5.0 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Romania | 5 | 13 | 9.0 | +4.0 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | +7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 |
| 16 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 5 | 13 | 10.2 | +2.8 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | +7 | 3.9 | +3.1 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 |
| 17 | Wales | 5 | 14 | 10.3 | +3.7 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | +5 | 2.3 | +2.7 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 |
| 18 | Poland | 5 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | +5 | 2.1 | +2.9 | 11 | 8.2 | +2.8 |
| 19 | Serbia | 5 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 | -5 | 0.0 | -5.0 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 |
| 20 | Turkey | 5 | 14 | 7.9 | +6.1 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | +4 | -0.1 | +4.1 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 |
| 21 | Scotland | 5 | 13 | 8.4 | +4.6 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | +6 | 0.9 | +5.1 | 12 | 7.5 | +4.5 |
| 22 | Cyprus | 5 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | +1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 |
| 23 | Greece | 5 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | 11 | 6.3 | +4.7 | -6 | 0.5 | -6.5 | 4 | 7.3 | -3.3 |
| 24 | Ukraine | 5 | 10 | 5.8 | +4.2 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 | +1 | -1.2 | +2.2 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 |
| 25 | Kosovo | 5 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | +5 | 0.5 | +4.5 | 11 | 7.0 | +4.0 |
| 26 | Slovakia | 5 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 8 | 5.2 | +2.8 | -4 | -0.7 | -3.3 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 |
| 27 | Hungary | 5 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | +1 | -0.5 | +1.5 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 28 | Israel | 5 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 | 14 | 8.8 | +5.2 | -2 | 0.2 | -2.2 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 |
| 29 | Albania | 5 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 | +1 | -0.6 | +1.6 | 10 | 6.7 | +3.3 |
| 30 | Finland | 5 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 | 10 | 8.1 | +1.9 | -5 | -0.2 | -4.8 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 |
| 31 | Republic of Ireland | 5 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 9.3 | -4.3 | +2 | -2.4 | +4.4 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 |
| 32 | Georgia | 5 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 12 | 9.3 | +2.7 | -7 | -3.7 | -3.3 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 |
| 33 | Slovenia | 5 | 1 | 3.8 | -2.8 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | -5 | -0.6 | -4.4 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| 34 | Faroe Islands | 5 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | +3 | -2.8 | +5.8 | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 |
| 35 | North Macedonia | 5 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | 8 | 9.6 | -1.6 | +0 | -4.2 | +4.2 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 |
| 36 | Northern Ireland | 5 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | -1 | -1.9 | +0.9 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| 37 | Kazakhstan | 5 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | 9 | 10.3 | -1.3 | -3 | -4.6 | +1.6 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 38 | Iceland | 5 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | 11 | 8.4 | +2.6 | -3 | -3.4 | +0.4 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
| 39 | Latvia | 5 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 11 | 8.9 | +2.1 | -8 | -4.3 | -3.7 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 |
| 40 | Montenegro | 5 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | 14 | 11.9 | +2.1 | -10 | -5.2 | -4.8 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 |
| 41 | Sweden | 5 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 | -8 | -4.0 | -4.0 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 |
| 42 | Armenia | 5 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | 14 | 11.5 | +2.5 | -11 | -7.0 | -4.0 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 |
| 43 | Malta | 5 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | 16 | 14.6 | +1.4 | -12 | -9.3 | -2.7 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 44 | Luxembourg | 5 | 0 | 3.1 | -3.1 | 10 | 9.7 | +0.3 | -10 | -6.6 | -3.4 | 0 | 3.7 | -3.7 |
| 45 | Lithuania | 5 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 12 | 10.3 | +1.7 | -8 | -6.5 | -1.5 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 |
| 46 | Estonia | 5 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 14 | 13.2 | +0.8 | -11 | -10.0 | -1.0 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
| 47 | Azerbaijan | 5 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 | 11 | 10.7 | +0.3 | -8 | -8.4 | +0.4 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 |
| 48 | Belarus | 5 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | 12 | 12.1 | -0.1 | -9 | -9.1 | +0.1 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 |
| 49 | Andorra | 5 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3 | 11 | 9.9 | +1.1 | -8 | -8.2 | +0.2 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 |
| 50 | Moldova | 5 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 22 | 18.1 | +3.9 | -19 | -15.7 | -3.3 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 |
| 51 | Bulgaria | 5 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | 16 | 12.2 | +3.8 | -13 | -10.4 | -2.6 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6 |
| 52 | Liechtenstein | 5 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 23 | 13.8 | +9.2 | -23 | -12.8 | -10.2 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| 53 | Gibraltar | 5 | 2 | 0.8 | +1.2 | 14 | 16.0 | -2.0 | -12 | -15.2 | +3.2 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 54 | San Marino | 5 | 1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | 31 | 21.3 | +9.7 | -30 | -18.6 | -11.4 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
Norway overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the WC Qualification Europe in 2026, with 37 goals from chances worth 25.4 xG, a gap of 11.6. Turkey were next on 8.5.
Finland underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the WC Qualification Europe in 2026, with 8 goals from chances worth 12.7 xG, a shortfall of 4.7. Montenegro were next on 4.1.
Norway were the luckiest side in the WC Qualification Europe in 2026, with 24 points from performances worth 18.6 xPts, 5.4 more than their chances deserved. Turkey were next on 4.6.
Georgia were the unluckiest side in the WC Qualification Europe in 2026, with 3 points from performances worth 7.9 xPts, 4.9 short of what they deserved. Luxembourg were next on 4.4.
Belgium would be top of the WC Qualification Europe in 2026 on expected points, with 20.9 xPts from 25.5 xG created and 4.8 conceded across eight matches. England were next on 20.3.
Belgium created the most xG in the WC Qualification Europe in 2026, 25.5 from eight matches, 3.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Norway were next on 25.4.
Liechtenstein created the least xG in the WC Qualification Europe in 2026, 1.3 from eight matches, 0.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Bulgaria were next on 2.0.
San Marino conceded the most xG in the WC Qualification Europe in 2026, 31.9 from eight matches, 4.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Gibraltar were next on 27.0.
England conceded the least xG in the WC Qualification Europe in 2026, 2.4 from eight matches, 0.3 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Spain were next on 2.8.
WC Qualification Europe teams averaged 1.52 xG a game in 2026, from the 192 matches played, and scored 1.66 goals a game from it.
WC Qualification Europe teams created more xG at home in 2026, 1.67 a game against 1.37 away, a home advantage of +0.29.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium | 8 | 29 | 25.5 | +3.5 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 | +22 | 20.7 | +1.3 | 18 | 20.9 | -2.9 |
| 2 | England | 8 | 22 | 20.8 | +1.2 | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 | +22 | 18.4 | +3.6 | 24 | 20.3 | +3.7 |
| 3 | Croatia | 8 | 26 | 24.9 | +1.1 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | +22 | 19.7 | +2.3 | 22 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 4 | Norway | 8 | 37 | 25.4 | +11.6 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | +32 | 20.6 | +11.4 | 24 | 18.6 | +5.4 |
| 5 | Netherlands | 8 | 27 | 19.8 | +7.2 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | +23 | 15.0 | +8.0 | 20 | 18.6 | +1.4 |
| 6 | Italy | 8 | 21 | 20.2 | +0.8 | 12 | 7.5 | +4.5 | +9 | 12.7 | -3.7 | 18 | 17.0 | +1.0 |
| 7 | Czech Republic | 8 | 18 | 18.8 | -0.8 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | +10 | 11.3 | -1.3 | 16 | 16.5 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Spain | 6 | 21 | 19.9 | +1.1 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | +19 | 17.1 | +1.9 | 16 | 16.4 | -0.4 |
| 9 | France | 6 | 16 | 17.7 | -1.7 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | +12 | 14.5 | -2.5 | 16 | 15.6 | +0.4 |
| 10 | Austria | 8 | 22 | 19.8 | +2.2 | 4 | 7.6 | -3.6 | +18 | 12.2 | +5.8 | 19 | 15.5 | +3.5 |
| 11 | Poland | 8 | 14 | 15.5 | -1.5 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | +7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | 17 | 15.0 | +2.0 |
| 12 | Wales | 8 | 21 | 17.1 | +3.9 | 11 | 9.8 | +1.2 | +10 | 7.2 | +2.8 | 16 | 14.9 | +1.1 |
| 13 | Romania | 8 | 19 | 15.7 | +3.3 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 | +9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | 13 | 14.2 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Portugal | 6 | 20 | 20.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | +13 | 14.6 | -1.6 | 13 | 13.8 | -0.8 |
| 15 | Serbia | 8 | 9 | 12.2 | -3.2 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 | -1 | 2.7 | -3.7 | 13 | 13.5 | -0.5 |
| 16 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 8 | 17 | 15.1 | +1.9 | 7 | 9.8 | -2.8 | +10 | 5.3 | +4.7 | 17 | 13.3 | +3.7 |
| 17 | Germany | 6 | 16 | 13.4 | +2.6 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | +13 | 9.6 | +3.4 | 15 | 13.2 | +1.8 |
| 18 | Denmark | 6 | 16 | 13.3 | +2.7 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | +9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | 11 | 12.4 | -1.4 |
| 19 | Cyprus | 8 | 11 | 13.8 | -2.8 | 11 | 11.2 | -0.2 | +0 | 2.5 | -2.5 | 8 | 12.0 | -4.0 |
| 20 | Switzerland | 6 | 14 | 9.0 | +5.0 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | +12 | 5.5 | +6.5 | 14 | 11.9 | +2.1 |
| 21 | Israel | 8 | 19 | 15.1 | +3.9 | 20 | 13.9 | +6.1 | -1 | 1.2 | -2.2 | 12 | 11.9 | +0.1 |
| 22 | Albania | 8 | 7 | 8.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 8.5 | -3.5 | +2 | -0.1 | +2.1 | 14 | 11.3 | +2.7 |
| 23 | Finland | 8 | 8 | 12.7 | -4.7 | 14 | 12.4 | +1.6 | -6 | 0.3 | -6.3 | 10 | 10.7 | -0.7 |
| 24 | Montenegro | 8 | 8 | 12.1 | -4.1 | 17 | 14.4 | +2.6 | -9 | -2.2 | -6.8 | 9 | 10.4 | -1.4 |
| 25 | Kazakhstan | 8 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | 13 | 13.1 | -0.1 | -4 | -3.8 | -0.2 | 8 | 10.2 | -2.2 |
| 26 | Greece | 6 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | 12 | 7.4 | +4.6 | -2 | 2.4 | -4.4 | 7 | 9.6 | -2.6 |
| 27 | North Macedonia | 8 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 | 10 | 13.5 | -3.5 | +3 | -3.9 | +6.9 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 |
| 28 | Faroe Islands | 8 | 11 | 9.0 | +2.0 | 9 | 13.3 | -4.3 | +2 | -4.3 | +6.3 | 12 | 8.9 | +3.1 |
| 29 | Scotland | 6 | 13 | 9.3 | +3.7 | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | +6 | 0.6 | +5.4 | 13 | 8.6 | +4.4 |
| 30 | Republic of Ireland | 6 | 9 | 9.8 | -0.8 | 7 | 10.5 | -3.5 | +2 | -0.7 | +2.7 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 |
| 31 | Turkey | 6 | 17 | 8.5 | +8.5 | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 | +5 | -0.7 | +5.7 | 13 | 8.4 | +4.6 |
| 32 | Slovakia | 6 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | -2 | -1.2 | -0.8 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 |
| 33 | Iceland | 6 | 13 | 7.7 | +5.3 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | +2 | -0.9 | +2.9 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 34 | Georgia | 6 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 15 | 9.9 | +5.1 | -8 | -3.1 | -4.9 | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 |
| 35 | Ukraine | 6 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | -1 | -2.6 | +1.6 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 |
| 36 | Kosovo | 6 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | +1 | -0.9 | +1.9 | 11 | 7.5 | +3.5 |
| 37 | Hungary | 6 | 11 | 8.7 | +2.3 | 10 | 10.8 | -0.8 | +1 | -2.1 | +3.1 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 38 | Latvia | 8 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 15 | 14.0 | +1.0 | -10 | -7.7 | -2.3 | 5 | 7.4 | -2.4 |
| 39 | Northern Ireland | 6 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | +1 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
| 40 | Slovenia | 6 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 | -5 | -0.9 | -4.1 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 |
| 41 | Malta | 8 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 | 19 | 19.4 | -0.4 | -15 | -11.8 | -3.2 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 |
| 42 | Sweden | 6 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 12 | 8.7 | +3.3 | -8 | -3.8 | -4.2 | 2 | 5.8 | -3.8 |
| 43 | Estonia | 8 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | 21 | 19.4 | +1.6 | -13 | -13.1 | +0.1 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| 44 | Lithuania | 8 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | 15 | 15.5 | -0.5 | -9 | -10.1 | +1.1 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 |
| 45 | Luxembourg | 6 | 1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 | -12 | -7.4 | -4.6 | 0 | 4.4 | -4.4 |
| 46 | Armenia | 6 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | 19 | 16.4 | +2.6 | -16 | -11.8 | -4.2 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 |
| 47 | Andorra | 8 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 16 | 15.7 | +0.3 | -13 | -13.2 | +0.2 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 |
| 48 | Moldova | 8 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 32 | 26.2 | +5.8 | -27 | -21.4 | -5.6 | 1 | 3.1 | -2.1 |
| 49 | Belarus | 6 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 17 | 15.0 | +2.0 | -13 | -11.0 | -2.0 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 |
| 50 | Azerbaijan | 6 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | 16 | 13.5 | +2.5 | -13 | -11.0 | -2.0 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
| 51 | Bulgaria | 6 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 19 | 15.3 | +3.7 | -16 | -13.4 | -2.6 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| 52 | Gibraltar | 8 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | 28 | 27.0 | +1.0 | -25 | -24.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
| 53 | Liechtenstein | 8 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | 31 | 21.4 | +9.6 | -31 | -20.1 | -10.9 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 |
| 54 | San Marino | 8 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | 39 | 31.9 | +7.1 | -37 | -28.3 | -8.7 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |