Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
Curacao overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the WC Qualification Concacaf in 2026, with 25 goals from chances worth 13.9 xG, a gap of 11.1. Costa Rica were next on 7.4.
Belize underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the WC Qualification Concacaf in 2026, with no goals from chances worth 2.8 xG, a shortfall of 2.8. The British Virgin Islands were next on 2.7.
Curacao were the luckiest side in the WC Qualification Concacaf in 2026, with 21 points from performances worth 13.6 xPts, 7.4 more than their chances deserved. Panama were next on 4.5.
Barbados were the unluckiest side in the WC Qualification Concacaf in 2026, with 1 point from performances worth 4.7 xPts, 3.7 short of what they deserved. Trinidad and Tobago were next on 2.9.
Honduras would be top of the WC Qualification Concacaf in 2026 on expected points, with 20.2 xPts from 18.0 xG created and 6.1 conceded across ten matches. Panama were next on 19.5.
Panama created the most xG in the WC Qualification Concacaf in 2026, 19.3 from ten matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Honduras were next on 18.0.
Anguilla created the least xG in the WC Qualification Concacaf in 2026, 0.8 from four matches, 0.2 a game against a competition average of 1.3. The Cayman Islands were next on 1.7.
Bermuda conceded the most xG in the WC Qualification Concacaf in 2026, 17.7 from nine matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Nicaragua were next on 12.7.
The Dominican Republic conceded the least xG in the WC Qualification Concacaf in 2026, 3.1 from four matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Cuba were next on 3.5.
WC Qualification Concacaf teams averaged 1.34 xG a game in 2026, from the 93 matches played, and scored 1.59 goals a game from it.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Honduras | 10 | 17 | 18.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | +13 | 11.9 | +1.1 | 21 | 20.2 | +0.8 |
| 2 | Panama | 10 | 19 | 19.3 | -0.3 | 5 | 9.0 | -4.0 | +14 | 10.3 | +3.7 | 24 | 19.5 | +4.5 |
| 3 | Jamaica | 10 | 19 | 16.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 7.4 | -2.4 | +14 | 9.2 | +4.8 | 23 | 19.4 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Costa Rica | 10 | 25 | 17.6 | +7.4 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 | +18 | 8.9 | +9.1 | 19 | 17.9 | +1.1 |
| 5 | Haiti | 10 | 20 | 16.5 | +3.5 | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 | +7 | 5.5 | +1.5 | 20 | 17.3 | +2.7 |
| 6 | Trinidad and Tobago | 10 | 23 | 17.0 | +6.0 | 13 | 12.0 | +1.0 | +10 | 5.0 | +5.0 | 14 | 16.9 | -2.9 |
| 7 | Guatemala | 10 | 21 | 14.9 | +6.1 | 12 | 9.8 | +2.2 | +9 | 5.2 | +3.8 | 17 | 16.2 | +0.8 |
| 8 | Suriname | 10 | 19 | 13.8 | +5.2 | 8 | 10.9 | -2.9 | +11 | 2.9 | +8.1 | 19 | 15.4 | +3.6 |
| 9 | Curacao | 9 | 25 | 13.9 | +11.1 | 3 | 10.5 | -7.5 | +22 | 3.5 | +18.5 | 21 | 13.6 | +7.4 |
| 10 | El Salvador | 10 | 9 | 10.9 | -1.9 | 13 | 12.4 | +0.6 | -4 | -1.5 | -2.5 | 11 | 13.2 | -2.2 |
| 11 | Nicaragua | 10 | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 | 16 | 12.7 | +3.3 | -3 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 13 | 12.5 | +0.5 |
| 12 | Bermuda | 9 | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | 28 | 17.7 | +10.3 | -17 | -9.1 | -7.9 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 |
| 13 | Dominican Republic | 4 | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 3.1 | +1.9 | +6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 |
| 14 | Grenada | 4 | 11 | 5.3 | +5.7 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | +4 | 0.3 | +3.7 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 |
| 15 | Puerto Rico | 4 | 10 | 5.0 | +5.0 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | +8 | 0.8 | +7.2 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 |
| 16 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 4 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 13 | 7.0 | +6.0 | -8 | -0.7 | -7.3 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 |
| 17 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 4 | 9 | 3.7 | +5.3 | 9 | 4.7 | +4.3 | +0 | -1.1 | +1.1 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 |
| 18 | Barbados | 4 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 | -6 | -1.0 | -5.0 | 1 | 4.7 | -3.7 |
| 19 | St. Lucia | 4 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 | -4 | -2.3 | -1.7 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 20 | Cuba | 3 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | -2 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 21 | Guyana | 3 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | +0 | -0.8 | +0.8 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 |
| 22 | Montserrat | 4 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | -7 | -4.3 | -2.7 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| 23 | Belize | 3 | 0 | 2.8 | -2.8 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | -7 | -2.3 | -4.7 | 0 | 2.7 | -2.7 |
| 24 | Dominica | 4 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 14 | 10.4 | +3.6 | -9 | -6.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 25 | Aruba | 4 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 | -7 | -5.2 | -1.8 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 |
| 26 | Antigua and Barbuda | 4 | 1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | 5 | 8.8 | -3.8 | -4 | -5.6 | +1.6 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
| 27 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 0 | 2.7 | -2.7 | 11 | 7.7 | +3.3 | -11 | -5.0 | -6.0 | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 |
| 28 | Cayman Islands | 3 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | -5 | -3.8 | -1.2 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| 29 | Bahamas | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 22 | 10.5 | +11.5 | -21 | -8.5 | -12.5 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
| 30 | Anguilla | 4 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 21 | 10.0 | +11.0 | -21 | -9.3 | -11.7 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |