AGF have the biggest shortfall in the Superliga: 40 points from chances worth 54.2 xPts, a gap of 14.2. At the other end, FC Midtjylland have taken 62 points from an xPts figure of 46.5, 15.5 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AGF | 16 | 33 | 32.8 | +0.2 | 20 | 15.9 | +4.1 | +13 | 16.9 | -3.9 | 27 | 32.3 | -5.3 |
| 2 | FC København | 16 | 31 | 31.6 | -0.6 | 15 | 14.8 | +0.2 | +16 | 16.8 | -0.8 | 35 | 32.0 | +3.0 |
| 3 | Brøndby IF | 16 | 24 | 28.0 | -4.0 | 18 | 15.4 | +2.6 | +6 | 12.6 | -6.6 | 27 | 30.0 | -3.0 |
| 4 | Nordsjælland | 16 | 36 | 29.9 | +6.1 | 19 | 17.1 | +1.9 | +17 | 12.8 | +4.2 | 35 | 29.5 | +5.5 |
| 5 | FC Midtjylland | 16 | 38 | 29.4 | +8.6 | 19 | 21.9 | -2.9 | +19 | 7.5 | +11.5 | 42 | 26.4 | +15.6 |
| 6 | Randers FC | 16 | 28 | 25.5 | +2.5 | 21 | 19.7 | +1.3 | +7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | 28 | 24.8 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Silkeborg IF | 16 | 26 | 23.2 | +2.8 | 19 | 20.7 | -1.7 | +7 | 2.5 | +4.5 | 26 | 24.0 | +2.0 |
| 8 | Viborg FF | 16 | 31 | 28.0 | +3.0 | 25 | 26.3 | -1.3 | +6 | 1.7 | +4.3 | 30 | 23.2 | +6.8 |
| 9 | Vejle Boldklub | 16 | 22 | 24.3 | -2.3 | 35 | 27.8 | +7.2 | -13 | -3.6 | -9.4 | 14 | 20.1 | -6.1 |
| 10 | Aalborg BK | 16 | 18 | 24.1 | -6.1 | 34 | 30.4 | +3.6 | -16 | -6.4 | -9.6 | 13 | 19.1 | -6.1 |
| 11 | Lyngby Boldklub | 16 | 13 | 15.8 | -2.8 | 17 | 24.1 | -7.1 | -4 | -8.4 | +4.4 | 18 | 16.7 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 16 | 26 | 18.9 | +7.1 | 34 | 31.3 | +2.7 | -8 | -12.4 | +4.4 | 20 | 15.9 | +4.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC København | 16 | 29 | 23.6 | +5.4 | 18 | 20.9 | -2.9 | +11 | 2.7 | +8.3 | 28 | 23.9 | +4.1 |
| 2 | Viborg FF | 16 | 26 | 27.8 | -1.8 | 25 | 25.9 | -0.9 | +1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 17 | 23.8 | -6.8 |
| 3 | Brøndby IF | 16 | 34 | 27.9 | +6.1 | 28 | 26.3 | +1.7 | +6 | 1.5 | +4.5 | 24 | 22.6 | +1.4 |
| 4 | AGF | 16 | 20 | 22.3 | -2.3 | 26 | 22.7 | +3.3 | -6 | -0.4 | -5.6 | 13 | 21.9 | -8.9 |
| 5 | Nordsjælland | 16 | 17 | 24.3 | -7.3 | 37 | 25.1 | +11.9 | -20 | -0.9 | -19.1 | 11 | 20.7 | -9.7 |
| 6 | Silkeborg IF | 16 | 30 | 21.1 | +8.9 | 22 | 24.2 | -2.2 | +8 | -3.1 | +11.1 | 23 | 20.6 | +2.4 |
| 7 | FC Midtjylland | 16 | 26 | 25.0 | +1.0 | 23 | 28.9 | -5.9 | +3 | -3.9 | +6.9 | 20 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | Randers FC | 16 | 29 | 20.5 | +8.5 | 29 | 25.3 | +3.7 | +0 | -4.8 | +4.8 | 20 | 19.4 | +0.6 |
| 9 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 16 | 21 | 20.2 | +0.8 | 30 | 25.8 | +4.2 | -9 | -5.6 | -3.4 | 17 | 18.7 | -1.7 |
| 10 | Aalborg BK | 16 | 16 | 19.2 | -3.2 | 33 | 26.2 | +6.8 | -17 | -7.1 | -9.9 | 11 | 18.2 | -7.2 |
| 11 | Lyngby Boldklub | 16 | 13 | 18.6 | -5.6 | 26 | 30.6 | -4.6 | -13 | -12.1 | -0.9 | 9 | 15.2 | -6.2 |
| 12 | Vejle Boldklub | 16 | 15 | 15.2 | -0.2 | 29 | 29.6 | -0.6 | -14 | -14.4 | +0.4 | 14 | 14.1 | -0.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viborg FF | 5 | 7 | 10.1 | -3.1 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | +2 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 |
| 2 | FC København | 5 | 14 | 8.6 | +5.4 | 2 | 5.7 | -3.7 | +12 | 2.8 | +9.2 | 13 | 8.8 | +4.2 |
| 3 | Silkeborg IF | 5 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | -1 | 1.2 | -2.2 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 |
| 4 | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 14 | 10.0 | +4.0 | 5 | 8.7 | -3.7 | +9 | 1.3 | +7.7 | 13 | 7.4 | +5.6 |
| 5 | Lyngby Boldklub | 5 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | -2 | 0.4 | -2.4 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 6 | Brøndby IF | 5 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | 9 | 8.5 | +0.5 | -3 | 0.3 | -3.3 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 |
| 7 | Aalborg BK | 5 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 12 | 6.8 | +5.2 | -6 | -0.2 | -5.8 | 1 | 6.8 | -5.8 |
| 8 | AGF | 5 | 5 | 9.4 | -4.4 | 14 | 10.1 | +3.9 | -9 | -0.7 | -8.3 | 0 | 6.7 | -6.7 |
| 9 | Randers FC | 5 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 | -2 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 |
| 10 | Nordsjælland | 5 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 13 | 9.0 | +4.0 | -7 | -2.4 | -4.6 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 11 | Vejle Boldklub | 5 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | +3 | -2.8 | +5.8 | 10 | 5.3 | +4.7 |
| 12 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 5 | 12 | 6.5 | +5.5 | 8 | 9.2 | -1.2 | +4 | -2.8 | +6.8 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 |
Silkeborg IF overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Superliga in 2024/2025, with 56 goals from chances worth 44.3 xG, a gap of 11.7. Randers FC were next on 10.9.
Aalborg BK underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Superliga in 2024/2025, with 34 goals from chances worth 43.3 xG, a shortfall of 9.3. Lyngby Boldklub were next on 8.3.
FC Midtjylland were the luckiest side in the Superliga in 2024/2025, with 62 points from performances worth 46.5 xPts, 15.5 more than their chances deserved. FC København were next on 7.2.
AGF were the unluckiest side in the Superliga in 2024/2025, with 40 points from performances worth 54.2 xPts, 14.2 short of what they deserved. Aalborg BK were next on 13.4.
FC København were also top of the Superliga in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 55.8 xPts from 55.2 xG created and 35.6 conceded across 32 matches. AGF were next on 54.2.
Brøndby IF created the most xG in the Superliga in 2024/2025, 55.9 from 32 matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Viborg FF were next on 55.8.
Lyngby Boldklub created the least xG in the Superliga in 2024/2025, 34.3 from 32 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Sønderjyske Fodbold were next on 39.1.
Vejle Boldklub conceded the most xG in the Superliga in 2024/2025, 57.4 from 32 matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Sønderjyske Fodbold were next on 57.1.
FC København conceded the least xG in the Superliga in 2024/2025, 35.6 from 32 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. AGF were next on 38.6.
Superliga teams averaged 1.50 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 192 matches played, and scored 1.57 goals a game from it.
Superliga teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.62 a game against 1.38 away, a home advantage of +0.24.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC København | 32 | 60 | 55.2 | +4.8 | 33 | 35.6 | -2.6 | +27 | 19.5 | +7.5 | 63 | 55.8 | +7.2 |
| 2 | AGF | 32 | 53 | 55.0 | -2.0 | 46 | 38.6 | +7.4 | +7 | 16.5 | -9.5 | 40 | 54.2 | -14.2 |
| 3 | Brøndby IF | 32 | 58 | 55.9 | +2.1 | 46 | 41.7 | +4.3 | +12 | 14.2 | -2.2 | 51 | 52.6 | -1.6 |
| 4 | Nordsjælland | 32 | 53 | 54.2 | -1.2 | 56 | 42.2 | +13.8 | -3 | 12.0 | -15.0 | 46 | 50.1 | -4.1 |
| 5 | Viborg FF | 32 | 57 | 55.8 | +1.2 | 50 | 52.1 | -2.1 | +7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | 47 | 47.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | FC Midtjylland | 32 | 64 | 54.4 | +9.6 | 42 | 50.8 | -8.8 | +22 | 3.6 | +18.4 | 62 | 46.5 | +15.5 |
| 7 | Silkeborg IF | 32 | 56 | 44.3 | +11.7 | 41 | 44.9 | -3.9 | +15 | -0.7 | +15.7 | 49 | 44.6 | +4.4 |
| 8 | Randers FC | 32 | 57 | 46.1 | +10.9 | 50 | 45.1 | +4.9 | +7 | 1.0 | +6.0 | 48 | 44.2 | +3.8 |
| 9 | Aalborg BK | 32 | 34 | 43.3 | -9.3 | 67 | 56.7 | +10.3 | -33 | -13.4 | -19.6 | 24 | 37.4 | -13.4 |
| 10 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 32 | 47 | 39.1 | +7.9 | 64 | 57.1 | +6.9 | -17 | -18.0 | +1.0 | 37 | 34.6 | +2.4 |
| 11 | Vejle Boldklub | 32 | 37 | 39.5 | -2.5 | 64 | 57.4 | +6.6 | -27 | -18.0 | -9.0 | 28 | 34.2 | -6.2 |
| 12 | Lyngby Boldklub | 32 | 26 | 34.3 | -8.3 | 43 | 54.8 | -11.8 | -17 | -20.4 | +3.4 | 27 | 31.8 | -4.8 |