AGF have the biggest shortfall in the Superliga: 5 points from chances worth 13.4 xPts, a gap of 8.4. At the other end, FC København have taken 24 points from an xPts figure of 14.8, 9.2 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nordsjælland | 4 | 7 | 9.5 | -2.5 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 | +6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | 12 | 8.7 | +3.3 |
| 2 | Brøndby IF | 5 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 |
| 3 | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | +5 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 10 | 7.3 | +2.7 |
| 4 | Viborg FF | 5 | 11 | 8.7 | +2.3 | 4 | 8.3 | -4.3 | +7 | 0.5 | +6.5 | 12 | 7.3 | +4.7 |
| 5 | AGF | 4 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | -2 | 2.6 | -4.6 | 3 | 7.2 | -4.2 |
| 6 | Odense BK | 4 | 3 | 8.0 | -5.0 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | -5 | 2.3 | -7.3 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 |
| 7 | Lyngby Boldklub | 5 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | -4 | 1.1 | -5.1 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 |
| 8 | FC København | 4 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | +7 | 1.9 | +5.1 | 12 | 6.8 | +5.2 |
| 9 | Randers FC | 5 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 5 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 | 13 | 7.8 | +5.2 | -5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| 11 | Silkeborg IF | 4 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | Horsens | 5 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | 9 | 10.8 | -1.8 | -2 | -5.6 | +3.6 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC København | 5 | 13 | 7.3 | +5.7 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | +8 | 1.9 | +6.1 | 12 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 2 | Lyngby Boldklub | 4 | 5 | 8.9 | -3.9 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | -2 | 4.0 | -6.0 | 3 | 7.6 | -4.6 |
| 3 | Nordsjælland | 5 | 7 | 9.4 | -2.4 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | -2 | 1.0 | -3.0 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 |
| 4 | Viborg FF | 4 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | +0 | 2.6 | -2.6 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 |
| 5 | Odense BK | 5 | 5 | 8.7 | -3.7 | 6 | 8.7 | -2.7 | -1 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 |
| 6 | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | 5 | 7.4 | -2.4 | +3 | -1.1 | +4.1 | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 |
| 7 | AGF | 5 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | -4 | -1.9 | -2.1 | 2 | 6.1 | -4.1 |
| 8 | Silkeborg IF | 5 | 8 | 4.4 | +3.6 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 | +1 | -3.2 | +4.2 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | Horsens | 4 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | +1 | -0.9 | +1.9 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| 10 | Brøndby IF | 4 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | -3 | -1.8 | -1.2 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 11 | Randers FC | 4 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | -1 | -3.0 | +2.0 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| 12 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 4 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | -4 | -4.0 | +0.0 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC København | 5 | 13 | 9.8 | +3.2 | 1 | 4.7 | -3.7 | +12 | 5.1 | +6.9 | 15 | 10.1 | +4.9 |
| 2 | Viborg FF | 5 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | +6 | 3.5 | +2.5 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 |
| 3 | Lyngby Boldklub | 5 | 5 | 8.7 | -3.7 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | -3 | 1.5 | -4.5 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 |
| 4 | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | +5 | 0.1 | +4.9 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 |
| 5 | Odense BK | 5 | 6 | 8.6 | -2.6 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | -4 | 0.0 | -4.0 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| 6 | Brøndby IF | 5 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | 12 | 7.5 | +4.5 | -7 | 0.1 | -7.1 | 3 | 6.9 | -3.9 |
| 7 | AGF | 5 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 | -5 | -0.2 | -4.8 | 2 | 6.9 | -4.9 |
| 8 | Nordsjælland | 5 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| 9 | Randers FC | 5 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | +0 | -1.2 | +1.2 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | Silkeborg IF | 5 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 | +2 | -2.8 | +4.8 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| 11 | Horsens | 5 | 11 | 5.9 | +5.1 | 10 | 9.0 | +1.0 | +1 | -3.2 | +4.2 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 |
| 12 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 5 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 | 14 | 10.3 | +3.7 | -6 | -4.7 | -1.3 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 |
FC København are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Superliga in 2026/2027, with 23 goals from chances worth 13.8 xG, a gap of 9.2. Horsens are next on 4.7.
Odense BK are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Superliga in 2026/2027, with 8 goals from chances worth 16.7 xG, a shortfall of 8.7. Lyngby Boldklub are next on 6.6.
FC København are the luckiest side in the Superliga in 2026/2027, with 24 points from performances worth 14.8 xPts, 9.2 more than their chances deserved. FC Midtjylland are next on 5.6.
AGF are the unluckiest side in the Superliga in 2026/2027, with 5 points from performances worth 13.4 xPts, 8.4 short of what they deserved. Lyngby Boldklub are next on 7.7.
Nordsjælland would be top of the Superliga in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 16.2 xPts from 18.9 xG created and 12.5 conceded across nine matches. FC København are next on 14.8.
Nordsjælland have created the most xG in the Superliga in 2026/2027, 18.9 from nine matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Odense BK are next on 16.7.
Sønderjyske Fodbold have created the least xG in the Superliga in 2026/2027, 9.4 from nine matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Silkeborg IF are next on 9.5.
Horsens have conceded the most xG in the Superliga in 2026/2027, 16.8 from nine matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Sønderjyske Fodbold are next on 15.9.
FC København have conceded the least xG in the Superliga in 2026/2027, 10.0 from nine matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. FC Midtjylland are next on 11.4.
Superliga teams have averaged 1.49 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 54 matches played, and have scored 1.48 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.55 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Superliga teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.54 a game against 1.42 away, a home advantage of +0.12, against +0.26 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nordsjælland | 9 | 14 | 18.9 | -4.9 | 10 | 12.5 | -2.5 | +4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | 17 | 16.2 | +0.8 |
| 2 | FC København | 9 | 23 | 13.8 | +9.2 | 8 | 10.0 | -2.0 | +15 | 3.8 | +11.2 | 24 | 14.8 | +9.2 |
| 3 | Lyngby Boldklub | 9 | 10 | 16.6 | -6.6 | 16 | 11.5 | +4.5 | -6 | 5.1 | -11.1 | 7 | 14.7 | -7.7 |
| 4 | Viborg FF | 9 | 15 | 15.3 | -0.3 | 8 | 12.3 | -4.3 | +7 | 3.0 | +4.0 | 17 | 14.5 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Odense BK | 9 | 8 | 16.7 | -8.7 | 14 | 14.4 | -0.4 | -6 | 2.3 | -8.3 | 9 | 13.9 | -4.9 |
| 6 | FC Midtjylland | 9 | 17 | 12.8 | +4.2 | 9 | 11.4 | -2.4 | +8 | 1.4 | +6.6 | 19 | 13.4 | +5.6 |
| 7 | AGF | 9 | 11 | 15.1 | -4.1 | 17 | 14.4 | +2.6 | -6 | 0.7 | -6.7 | 5 | 13.4 | -8.4 |
| 8 | Brøndby IF | 9 | 12 | 12.3 | -0.3 | 15 | 13.3 | +1.7 | -3 | -0.9 | -2.1 | 13 | 11.9 | +1.1 |
| 9 | Silkeborg IF | 9 | 12 | 9.5 | +2.5 | 12 | 13.7 | -1.7 | +0 | -4.2 | +4.2 | 10 | 9.9 | +0.1 |
| 10 | Randers FC | 9 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 | 14 | 14.2 | -0.2 | -3 | -4.5 | +1.5 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Horsens | 9 | 15 | 10.3 | +4.7 | 16 | 16.8 | -0.8 | -1 | -6.5 | +5.5 | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 |
| 12 | Sønderjyske Fodbold | 9 | 12 | 9.4 | +2.6 | 21 | 15.9 | +5.1 | -9 | -6.5 | -2.5 | 5 | 8.6 | -3.6 |