Göztepe have the biggest shortfall in the Super Lig: 3 points from chances worth 8.1 xPts, a gap of 5.1. At the other end, Kocaelispor have taken 12 points from an xPts figure of 5.8, 6.2 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amed SK | 4 | 13 | 8.7 | +4.3 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | +10 | 5.2 | +4.8 | 12 | 8.3 | +3.7 |
| 2 | Galatasaray | 3 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | 4 | 1.9 | +2.1 | +2 | 6.6 | -4.6 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 |
| 3 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 4 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | +5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 10 | 6.7 | +3.3 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | +8 | 5.6 | +2.4 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 |
| 5 | Göztepe | 3 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | -3 | 3.9 | -6.9 | 1 | 6.2 | -5.2 |
| 6 | Çorum FK | 3 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | +1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| 7 | Trabzonspor | 3 | 11 | 7.4 | +3.6 | 1 | 4.1 | -3.1 | +10 | 3.3 | +6.7 | 9 | 5.9 | +3.1 |
| 8 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 13 | 7.9 | +5.1 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | +9 | 4.5 | +4.5 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 |
| 9 | Eyüpspor | 3 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | -2 | 0.9 | -2.9 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| 10 | Kasımpaşa | 3 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | +0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 11 | Samsunspor | 3 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | 10 | 4.0 | +6.0 | -6 | 0.7 | -6.7 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 |
| 12 | Kocaelispor | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 0 | 4.0 | -4.0 | +5 | -0.2 | +5.2 | 9 | 4.1 | +4.9 |
| 13 | Konyaspor | 3 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| 14 | Gaziantep F.K. | 3 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 |
| 15 | Rizespor | 2 | 0 | 3.0 | -3.0 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | -3 | 1.0 | -4.0 | 0 | 3.4 | -3.4 |
| 16 | Erzurumspor FK | 3 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | -2 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 6 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| 17 | Gençlerbirliği | 3 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 | +0 | -2.4 | +2.4 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 18 | Alanyaspor | 2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | +1 | 0.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | +1 | 4.6 | -3.6 | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 5 | 2.3 | +2.7 | -1 | 1.6 | -2.6 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 |
| 3 | Rizespor | 4 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 | +4 | -1.4 | +5.4 | 10 | 4.8 | +5.2 |
| 4 | Galatasaray | 3 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | 6 | 3.9 | +2.1 | +1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 |
| 5 | Alanyaspor | 4 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 | +1 | -1.4 | +2.4 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 |
| 6 | Konyaspor | 3 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | -3 | -0.1 | -2.9 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 |
| 7 | Kasımpaşa | 3 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | +2 | 0.0 | +2.0 | 7 | 4.0 | +3.0 |
| 8 | Samsunspor | 3 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +0 | -0.6 | +0.6 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 9 | Gaziantep F.K. | 3 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | +1 | -1.8 | +2.8 | 6 | 3.3 | +2.7 |
| 10 | Trabzonspor | 3 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | -2 | -2.9 | +0.9 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
| 11 | Amed SK | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | -2 | -0.6 | -1.4 | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 |
| 12 | Erzurumspor FK | 3 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | -6 | -2.8 | -3.2 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği | 3 | 1 | 3.1 | -2.1 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | -8 | -4.5 | -3.5 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 |
| 14 | Göztepe | 3 | 7 | 3.6 | +3.4 | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 | -1 | -4.9 | +3.9 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| 15 | Çorum FK | 3 | 9 | 2.2 | +6.8 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | +0 | -4.9 | +4.9 | 4 | 1.8 | +2.2 |
| 16 | Kocaelispor | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | -2 | -4.5 | +2.5 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3 |
| 17 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | -6 | -3.3 | -2.7 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 3 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | 12 | 7.7 | +4.3 | -12 | -6.4 | -5.6 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beşiktaş | 5 | 13 | 9.4 | +3.6 | 7 | 3.3 | +3.7 | +6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 9 | 10.4 | -1.4 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 5 | 15 | 11.3 | +3.7 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | +11 | 6.7 | +4.3 | 10 | 9.9 | +0.1 |
| 3 | Galatasaray | 5 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 | 8 | 5.2 | +2.8 | +3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | 12 | 9.7 | +2.3 |
| 4 | Amed SK | 5 | 12 | 9.5 | +2.5 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | +5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 |
| 5 | Göztepe | 5 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | 12 | 9.3 | +2.7 | -4 | 0.8 | -4.8 | 2 | 7.6 | -5.6 |
| 6 | Çorum FK | 5 | 11 | 6.2 | +4.8 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 | +1 | -0.3 | +1.3 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 |
| 7 | Trabzonspor | 5 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 | +8 | 1.0 | +7.0 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 |
| 8 | Konyaspor | 5 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | -3 | 0.2 | -3.2 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 5 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | +2 | 0.0 | +2.0 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 5 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | +0 | -1.1 | +1.1 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 11 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 5 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 | -3 | -1.8 | -1.2 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 |
| 12 | Alanyaspor | 5 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | +2 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 |
| 13 | Samsunspor | 5 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 | -6 | -1.8 | -4.2 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 |
| 14 | Kocaelispor | 5 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 | 2 | 7.7 | -5.7 | +5 | -2.4 | +7.4 | 12 | 5.5 | +6.5 |
| 15 | Gaziantep F.K. | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 | +0 | -2.8 | +2.8 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 16 | Eyüpspor | 5 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 | 15 | 9.4 | +5.6 | -13 | -4.3 | -8.7 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Gençlerbirliği | 5 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 | 12 | 10.4 | +1.6 | -9 | -4.5 | -4.5 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 18 | Erzurumspor FK | 5 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | -5 | -3.6 | -1.4 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 |
Çorum FK are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, with 13 goals from chances worth 6.8 xG, a gap of 6.2. Amed SK are next on 4.3.
Konyaspor are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, with 4 goals from chances worth 7.2 xG, a shortfall of 3.2. Eyüpspor are next on 3.1.
Kocaelispor are the luckiest side in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, with 12 points from performances worth 5.8 xPts, 6.2 more than their chances deserved. Alanyaspor are next on 3.8.
Göztepe are the unluckiest side in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, with 3 points from performances worth 8.1 xPts, 5.1 short of what they deserved. Konyaspor are next on 4.0.
Beşiktaş would be top of the Super Lig in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 12.8 xPts from 10.7 xG created and 3.4 conceded across six matches. Fenerbahçe are next on 12.6.
Fenerbahçe have created the most xG in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, 14.4 from six matches, 2.4 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Galatasaray are next on 12.9.
Erzurumspor FK have created the least xG in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, 4.0 from six matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Eyüpspor are next on 5.1.
Gençlerbirliği have conceded the most xG in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, 13.5 from six matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Göztepe are next on 12.3.
Beşiktaş have conceded the least xG in the Super Lig in 2026/2027, 3.4 from six matches, 0.6 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Fenerbahçe are next on 5.3.
Super Lig teams have averaged 1.41 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 54 matches played, and have scored 1.49 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.31 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Super Lig teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.71 a game against 1.10 away, a home advantage of +0.62, against +0.35 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beşiktaş | 6 | 14 | 10.7 | +3.3 | 7 | 3.4 | +3.6 | +7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | 12 | 12.8 | -0.8 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 6 | 16 | 14.4 | +1.6 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | +10 | 9.1 | +0.9 | 10 | 12.6 | -2.6 |
| 3 | Galatasaray | 6 | 13 | 12.9 | +0.1 | 10 | 5.8 | +4.2 | +3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | 13 | 12.2 | +0.8 |
| 4 | Amed SK | 6 | 15 | 10.7 | +4.3 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | +8 | 4.6 | +3.4 | 13 | 10.5 | +2.5 |
| 5 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 6 | 10 | 10.3 | -0.3 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 | -1 | 0.5 | -1.5 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 6 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Trabzonspor | 6 | 13 | 10.0 | +3.0 | 5 | 9.5 | -4.5 | +8 | 0.4 | +7.6 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 |
| 8 | Rizespor | 6 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | +1 | -0.4 | +1.4 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 |
| 9 | Göztepe | 6 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.3 | 15 | 12.3 | +2.7 | -4 | -1.1 | -2.9 | 3 | 8.1 | -5.1 |
| 10 | Konyaspor | 6 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | -4 | -0.5 | -3.5 | 4 | 8.0 | -4.0 |
| 11 | Samsunspor | 6 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 12 | 7.6 | +4.4 | -6 | 0.1 | -6.1 | 4 | 7.9 | -3.9 |
| 12 | Çorum FK | 6 | 13 | 6.8 | +6.2 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 | +1 | -2.3 | +3.3 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 |
| 13 | Alanyaspor | 6 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | +2 | -1.3 | +3.3 | 11 | 7.2 | +3.8 |
| 14 | Gaziantep F.K. | 6 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 7 | 9.2 | -2.2 | +0 | -2.4 | +2.4 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 |
| 15 | Kocaelispor | 6 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | 4 | 10.5 | -6.5 | +3 | -4.7 | +7.7 | 12 | 5.8 | +6.2 |
| 16 | Eyüpspor | 6 | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 | 16 | 10.6 | +5.4 | -14 | -5.5 | -8.5 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 |
| 17 | Erzurumspor FK | 6 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | -8 | -4.6 | -3.4 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 |
| 18 | Gençlerbirliği | 6 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 13 | 13.5 | -0.5 | -8 | -6.9 | -1.1 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 |