Vaduz have the biggest shortfall in the Super League: 6 points from chances worth 12.3 xPts, a gap of 6.3. At the other end, Lugano have taken 25 points from an xPts figure of 14.6, 10.4 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Boys | 5 | 17 | 13.8 | +3.2 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | +5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 11 | 9.8 | +1.2 |
| 2 | Luzern | 5 | 11 | 12.0 | -1.0 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | +2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | 9 | 9.6 | -0.6 |
| 3 | Sion | 5 | 11 | 12.8 | -1.8 | 7 | 9.3 | -2.3 | +4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 |
| 4 | Lugano | 5 | 14 | 9.3 | +4.7 | 4 | 7.6 | -3.6 | +10 | 1.8 | +8.2 | 13 | 8.1 | +4.9 |
| 5 | St. Gallen | 4 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | 10 | 5.0 | +5.0 | -3 | 3.7 | -6.7 | 4 | 7.6 | -3.6 |
| 6 | Vaduz | 4 | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | +3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
| 7 | Servette | 4 | 3 | 6.9 | -3.9 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | -2 | 1.4 | -3.4 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 |
| 8 | Grasshopper | 4 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | 11 | 8.4 | +2.6 | -4 | 0.5 | -4.5 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 9 | Basel | 5 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 | 11 | 7.4 | +3.6 | -4 | -2.2 | -1.8 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 |
| 10 | Zürich | 4 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | -1 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Lausanne Sport | 5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 11 | 8.3 | +2.7 | -6 | -2.9 | -3.1 | 2 | 5.2 | -3.2 |
| 12 | Thun | 4 | 2 | 6.4 | -4.4 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | -9 | -3.1 | -5.9 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Gallen | 5 | 9 | 9.8 | -0.8 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
| 2 | Young Boys | 4 | 14 | 8.8 | +5.2 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | +8 | 3.0 | +5.0 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 |
| 3 | Sion | 4 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | +5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 |
| 4 | Lugano | 4 | 13 | 6.6 | +6.4 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | +10 | 1.4 | +8.6 | 12 | 6.6 | +5.4 |
| 5 | Servette | 5 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | +0 | -1.9 | +1.9 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | Grasshopper | 5 | 6 | 8.7 | -2.7 | 13 | 11.2 | +1.8 | -7 | -2.5 | -4.5 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| 7 | Basel | 4 | 10 | 6.4 | +3.6 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | +4 | 0.1 | +3.9 | 10 | 5.6 | +4.4 |
| 8 | Vaduz | 5 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 | -6 | -2.5 | -3.5 | 0 | 5.5 | -5.5 |
| 9 | Thun | 5 | 13 | 8.2 | +4.8 | 12 | 11.5 | +0.5 | +1 | -3.2 | +4.2 | 9 | 5.2 | +3.8 |
| 10 | Zürich | 5 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | 12 | 11.9 | +0.1 | -5 | -4.1 | -0.9 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Lausanne Sport | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | -2 | -2.9 | +0.9 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| 12 | Luzern | 4 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 9 | 12.2 | -3.2 | -3 | -6.2 | +3.2 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Boys | 5 | 15 | 13.5 | +1.5 | 12 | 8.6 | +3.4 | +3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | 9 | 9.4 | -0.4 |
| 2 | Sion | 5 | 14 | 12.0 | +2.0 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | +8 | 3.7 | +4.3 | 13 | 9.0 | +4.0 |
| 3 | Lugano | 5 | 14 | 8.9 | +5.1 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | +10 | 2.3 | +7.7 | 13 | 8.5 | +4.5 |
| 4 | St. Gallen | 5 | 6 | 9.5 | -3.5 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | -4 | 1.5 | -5.5 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 5 | Luzern | 5 | 13 | 11.7 | +1.3 | 10 | 10.9 | -0.9 | +3 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 6 | Vaduz | 5 | 11 | 9.0 | +2.0 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 |
| 7 | Thun | 5 | 6 | 9.7 | -3.7 | 9 | 10.8 | -1.8 | -3 | -1.1 | -1.9 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 8 | Grasshopper | 5 | 8 | 11.6 | -3.6 | 12 | 13.1 | -1.1 | -4 | -1.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 |
| 9 | Zürich | 5 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 | 10 | 11.0 | -1.0 | +0 | -2.1 | +2.1 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Servette | 5 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | -1 | -1.6 | +0.6 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Basel | 5 | 10 | 5.3 | +4.7 | 13 | 9.5 | +3.5 | -3 | -4.3 | +1.3 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| 12 | Lausanne Sport | 5 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 | -8 | -4.4 | -3.6 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 |
Lugano are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Super League in 2026/2027, with 27 goals from chances worth 15.9 xG, a gap of 11.1. Young Boys are next on 8.4.
Grasshopper are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Super League in 2026/2027, with 13 goals from chances worth 17.6 xG, a shortfall of 4.6. Servette are next on 3.6.
Lugano are the luckiest side in the Super League in 2026/2027, with 25 points from performances worth 14.6 xPts, 10.4 more than their chances deserved. Sion are next on 3.1.
Vaduz are the unluckiest side in the Super League in 2026/2027, with 6 points from performances worth 12.3 xPts, 6.3 short of what they deserved. Grasshopper are next on 3.5.
Young Boys would be top of the Super League in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 16.7 xPts from 22.6 xG created and 13.9 conceded across nine matches. Sion are next on 15.9.
Young Boys have created the most xG in the Super League in 2026/2027, 22.6 from nine matches, 2.5 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Sion are next on 20.9.
Lausanne Sport have created the least xG in the Super League in 2026/2027, 8.7 from nine matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Basel are next on 11.7.
Thun have conceded the most xG in the Super League in 2026/2027, 21.0 from nine matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Grasshopper are next on 19.6.
Lugano have conceded the least xG in the Super League in 2026/2027, 12.7 from nine matches, 1.4 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Basel are next on 13.7.
Super League teams have averaged 1.80 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 54 matches played, and have scored 1.94 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.62 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Super League teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.94 a game against 1.65 away, a home advantage of +0.29, against +0.22 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Young Boys | 9 | 31 | 22.6 | +8.4 | 18 | 13.9 | +4.1 | +13 | 8.7 | +4.3 | 19 | 16.7 | +2.3 |
| 2 | Sion | 9 | 23 | 20.9 | +2.1 | 14 | 15.0 | -1.0 | +9 | 5.9 | +3.1 | 19 | 15.9 | +3.1 |
| 3 | St. Gallen | 9 | 16 | 18.6 | -2.6 | 19 | 14.1 | +4.9 | -3 | 4.5 | -7.5 | 13 | 14.9 | -1.9 |
| 4 | Lugano | 9 | 27 | 15.9 | +11.1 | 7 | 12.7 | -5.7 | +20 | 3.2 | +16.8 | 25 | 14.6 | +10.4 |
| 5 | Servette | 9 | 11 | 14.6 | -3.6 | 13 | 15.0 | -2.0 | -2 | -0.4 | -1.6 | 10 | 12.5 | -2.5 |
| 6 | Vaduz | 9 | 18 | 16.3 | +1.7 | 21 | 16.9 | +4.1 | -3 | -0.6 | -2.4 | 6 | 12.3 | -6.3 |
| 7 | Luzern | 9 | 17 | 18.0 | -1.0 | 18 | 19.3 | -1.3 | -1 | -1.2 | +0.2 | 12 | 12.1 | -0.1 |
| 8 | Grasshopper | 9 | 13 | 17.6 | -4.6 | 24 | 19.6 | +4.4 | -11 | -2.0 | -9.0 | 8 | 11.5 | -3.5 |
| 9 | Basel | 9 | 17 | 11.7 | +5.3 | 17 | 13.7 | +3.3 | +0 | -2.0 | +2.0 | 13 | 11.3 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Zürich | 9 | 14 | 14.5 | -0.5 | 20 | 18.4 | +1.6 | -6 | -3.9 | -2.1 | 11 | 10.8 | +0.2 |
| 11 | Thun | 9 | 15 | 14.6 | +0.4 | 23 | 21.0 | +2.0 | -8 | -6.4 | -1.6 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 |
| 12 | Lausanne Sport | 9 | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | 15 | 14.4 | +0.6 | -8 | -5.7 | -2.3 | 6 | 8.6 | -2.6 |