Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 3 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | +5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 2 | Juventus | 3 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | +4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 3 | Inter | 3 | 12 | 8.4 | +3.6 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 | +6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 |
| 4 | Bologna | 3 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | -1 | 2.7 | -3.7 | 2 | 5.8 | -3.8 |
| 5 | Fiorentina | 3 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 | 6 | 3.9 | +2.1 | -4 | 1.4 | -5.4 | 1 | 5.1 | -4.1 |
| 6 | Udinese | 3 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | -2 | 0.5 | -2.5 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 |
| 7 | AC Milan | 2 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | +5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 8 | Napoli | 2 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | +0 | 1.7 | -1.7 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 9 | Parma | 3 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | +0 | -0.7 | +0.7 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
| 10 | Lazio | 2 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| 11 | Genoa | 3 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | -5 | -0.9 | -4.1 | 1 | 3.4 | -2.4 |
| 12 | Sassuolo | 2 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | +2 | 0.8 | +1.2 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 |
| 13 | Venezia | 3 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | -6 | -2.1 | -3.9 | 0 | 3.2 | -3.2 |
| 14 | Frosinone | 3 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | +2 | -1.6 | +3.6 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 |
| 15 | Monza | 2 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | +0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | +1 | -1.7 | +2.7 | 6 | 2.9 | +3.1 |
| 17 | Como | 1 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | +1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 |
| 18 | Cagliari | 2 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 | +0 | -2.3 | +2.3 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 |
| 19 | Torino | 2 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | -3 | -2.7 | -0.3 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 |
| 20 | Lecce | 2 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | -3 | -3.4 | +0.4 | 3 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Como | 4 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 | +2 | -0.3 | +2.3 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 2 | Monza | 3 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | 8 | 3.5 | +4.5 | -4 | 1.9 | -5.9 | 1 | 5.2 | -4.2 |
| 3 | Sassuolo | 3 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 | -2 | 0.9 | -2.9 | 1 | 4.7 | -3.7 |
| 4 | Roma | 2 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | +6 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 |
| 5 | Inter | 2 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 | +1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 6 | Juventus | 2 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 | +0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| 7 | Lazio | 3 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 1 | 5.2 | -4.2 | +4 | -0.7 | +4.7 | 9 | 3.8 | +5.2 |
| 8 | AC Milan | 3 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | +1 | -0.2 | +1.2 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 |
| 9 | Napoli | 3 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | +1 | -2.2 | +3.2 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| 10 | Cagliari | 3 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 | +3 | -1.7 | +4.7 | 9 | 3.1 | +5.9 |
| 11 | Torino | 3 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | +0 | -1.8 | +1.8 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
| 12 | Fiorentina | 2 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 | -2 | -0.4 | -1.6 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 13 | Lecce | 3 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | -2 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 14 | Bologna | 2 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | -2 | -0.4 | -1.6 | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 |
| 15 | Venezia | 2 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | -3 | -0.7 | -2.3 | 0 | 2.4 | -2.4 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 2 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 | +3 | -0.7 | +3.7 | 4 | 2.4 | +1.6 |
| 17 | Genoa | 2 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3 | -2 | -0.6 | -1.4 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| 18 | Udinese | 2 | 6 | 1.9 | +4.1 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | -1 | -2.6 | +1.6 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6 |
| 19 | Atalanta | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | -3 | -2.7 | -0.3 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 |
| 20 | Parma | 2 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | -3 | -2.7 | -0.3 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 14 | 12.8 | +1.2 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | +11 | 7.5 | +3.5 | 13 | 11.0 | +2.0 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 15 | 14.1 | +0.9 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | +7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | 13 | 10.7 | +2.3 |
| 3 | Juventus | 5 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | +4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 |
| 4 | Monza | 5 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | 12 | 6.4 | +5.6 | -4 | 2.3 | -6.3 | 4 | 8.2 | -4.2 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 5 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | +6 | 2.2 | +3.8 | 11 | 8.1 | +2.9 |
| 6 | Bologna | 5 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | -3 | 2.2 | -5.2 | 2 | 8.1 | -6.1 |
| 7 | Sassuolo | 5 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 | +0 | 1.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 5 | 6 | 8.6 | -2.6 | 12 | 7.6 | +4.4 | -6 | 1.0 | -7.0 | 4 | 7.8 | -3.8 |
| 9 | Como | 5 | 9 | 9.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | +3 | 1.1 | +1.9 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 |
| 10 | Napoli | 5 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | +1 | -0.5 | +1.5 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 11 | Lazio | 5 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | +5 | 0.2 | +4.8 | 13 | 7.2 | +5.8 |
| 12 | Udinese | 5 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | -3 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| 13 | Venezia | 5 | 4 | 8.0 | -4.0 | 13 | 10.8 | +2.2 | -9 | -2.8 | -6.2 | 0 | 5.6 | -5.6 |
| 14 | Genoa | 5 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 10 | 6.3 | +3.7 | -7 | -1.6 | -5.4 | 1 | 5.5 | -4.5 |
| 15 | Frosinone | 5 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 10.3 | -6.3 | +5 | -2.4 | +7.4 | 10 | 5.5 | +4.5 |
| 16 | Cagliari | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 2 | 8.6 | -6.6 | +3 | -3.9 | +6.9 | 12 | 5.0 | +7.0 |
| 17 | Parma | 5 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | -3 | -3.4 | +0.4 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 18 | Atalanta | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 | -2 | -4.4 | +2.4 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 19 | Torino | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 8 | 9.2 | -1.2 | -3 | -4.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 20 | Lecce | 5 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 | -5 | -5.1 | +0.1 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
AC Milan are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in Serie A in 2026/2027, with 10 goals from chances worth 7.8 xG, a gap of 2.2. Udinese are next on 1.5.
Venezia are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in Serie A in 2026/2027, with 4 goals from chances worth 8.0 xG, a shortfall of 4.0. Bologna are next on 3.7.
Cagliari are the luckiest side in Serie A in 2026/2027, with 12 points from performances worth 5.0 xPts, 7.0 more than their chances deserved. Lazio are next on 5.8.
Bologna are the unluckiest side in Serie A in 2026/2027, with 2 points from performances worth 8.1 xPts, 6.1 short of what they deserved. Venezia are next on 5.6.
Roma would also be top of Serie A in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 11.0 xPts from 12.8 xG created and 5.3 conceded across five matches. Inter are next on 10.7.
Inter have created the most xG in Serie A in 2026/2027, 14.1 from five matches, 2.8 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Roma are next on 12.8.
Parma have created the least xG in Serie A in 2026/2027, 4.1 from five matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Cagliari, Atalanta and Torino are next on 4.7.
Venezia have conceded the most xG in Serie A in 2026/2027, 10.8 from five matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Frosinone are next on 10.3.
Juventus have conceded the least xG in Serie A in 2026/2027, 3.0 from five matches, 0.6 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Bologna are next on 4.5.
Serie A teams have averaged 1.50 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 50 matches played, and have scored 1.45 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.30 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Serie A teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.59 a game against 1.42 away, a home advantage of +0.17, against +0.24 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 14 | 12.8 | +1.2 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | +11 | 7.5 | +3.5 | 13 | 11.0 | +2.0 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 15 | 14.1 | +0.9 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | +7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | 13 | 10.7 | +2.3 |
| 3 | Juventus | 5 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | +4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 |
| 4 | Monza | 5 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | 12 | 6.4 | +5.6 | -4 | 2.3 | -6.3 | 4 | 8.2 | -4.2 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 5 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | +6 | 2.2 | +3.8 | 11 | 8.1 | +2.9 |
| 6 | Bologna | 5 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | -3 | 2.2 | -5.2 | 2 | 8.1 | -6.1 |
| 7 | Sassuolo | 5 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 | +0 | 1.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 5 | 6 | 8.6 | -2.6 | 12 | 7.6 | +4.4 | -6 | 1.0 | -7.0 | 4 | 7.8 | -3.8 |
| 9 | Como | 5 | 9 | 9.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | +3 | 1.1 | +1.9 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 |
| 10 | Napoli | 5 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | +1 | -0.5 | +1.5 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 11 | Lazio | 5 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | +5 | 0.2 | +4.8 | 13 | 7.2 | +5.8 |
| 12 | Udinese | 5 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | -3 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| 13 | Venezia | 5 | 4 | 8.0 | -4.0 | 13 | 10.8 | +2.2 | -9 | -2.8 | -6.2 | 0 | 5.6 | -5.6 |
| 14 | Genoa | 5 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 10 | 6.3 | +3.7 | -7 | -1.6 | -5.4 | 1 | 5.5 | -4.5 |
| 15 | Frosinone | 5 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 10.3 | -6.3 | +5 | -2.4 | +7.4 | 10 | 5.5 | +4.5 |
| 16 | Cagliari | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 2 | 8.6 | -6.6 | +3 | -3.9 | +6.9 | 12 | 5.0 | +7.0 |
| 17 | Parma | 5 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | -3 | -3.4 | +0.4 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 18 | Atalanta | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 | -2 | -4.4 | +2.4 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 19 | Torino | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 8 | 9.2 | -1.2 | -3 | -4.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 20 | Lecce | 5 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 | -5 | -5.1 | +0.1 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |