Hibernian have the biggest shortfall in the Scottish Premiership: 7 points from chances worth 11.4 xPts, a gap of 4.4. At the other end, Celtic have taken 18 points from an xPts figure of 13.6, 4.4 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 4 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | +4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 |
| 2 | Hibernian | 4 | 3 | 7.4 | -4.4 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | -4 | 2.2 | -6.2 | 1 | 7.0 | -6.0 |
| 3 | Hearts | 3 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | +6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 4 | Rangers | 3 | 3 | 8.8 | -5.8 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | +1 | 5.2 | -4.2 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 |
| 5 | Dundee | 4 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| 6 | Motherwell | 3 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | -1 | 2.9 | -3.9 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 |
| 7 | St. Johnstone | 4 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | +1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 |
| 8 | St. Mirren | 4 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | -3 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| 9 | Dundee United | 3 | 2 | 6.1 | -4.1 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | -2 | 1.0 | -3.0 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 3 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | +0 | -0.6 | +0.6 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 4 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 11 | 12.3 | -1.3 | -9 | -8.8 | -0.2 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rangers | 4 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | +3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 |
| 2 | Celtic | 3 | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 | +6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 |
| 3 | Hearts | 4 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | +0 | -0.1 | +0.1 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 4 | Dundee United | 4 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | +0 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| 5 | Hibernian | 3 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | +1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 6 | St. Mirren | 3 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | +2 | 0.1 | +1.9 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 |
| 7 | Aberdeen | 4 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | -1 | -2.8 | +1.8 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| 8 | Kilmarnock | 3 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +0 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| 9 | Falkirk | 4 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 | -1 | -3.7 | +2.7 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 |
| 10 | St. Johnstone | 3 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | -2 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 1 | 3.3 | -2.3 |
| 11 | Motherwell | 4 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 11.0 | -4.0 | -1 | -5.4 | +4.4 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Dundee | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 | +0 | -3.8 | +3.8 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rangers | 5 | 6 | 12.1 | -6.1 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | +5 | 8.2 | -3.2 | 15 | 11.2 | +3.8 |
| 2 | Hearts | 5 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | +3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 |
| 3 | Celtic | 5 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | +5 | 2.8 | +2.2 | 12 | 8.6 | +3.4 |
| 4 | Hibernian | 5 | 5 | 9.1 | -4.1 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | -3 | 2.3 | -5.3 | 4 | 8.4 | -4.4 |
| 5 | Dundee United | 5 | 8 | 9.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | +2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 6 | St. Mirren | 5 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | -4 | -1.1 | -2.9 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 |
| 7 | Motherwell | 5 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | 10 | 10.1 | -0.1 | -3 | -3.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 |
| 8 | Dundee | 5 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 8.7 | -2.7 | +1 | -2.5 | +3.5 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 |
| 9 | St. Johnstone | 5 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | -1 | -1.8 | +0.8 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| 10 | Falkirk | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 7 | 8.5 | -1.5 | -1 | -3.1 | +2.1 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 |
| 11 | Aberdeen | 5 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | +0 | -3.7 | +3.7 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 5 | 2 | 4.8 | -2.8 | 6 | 8.9 | -2.9 | -4 | -4.1 | +0.1 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 |
Hearts are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, with 14 goals from chances worth 12.7 xG, a gap of 1.3. Dundee are next on 0.1.
Rangers are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, with 8 goals from chances worth 16.6 xG, a shortfall of 8.6. Hibernian are next on 5.1.
Celtic are the luckiest side in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, with 18 points from performances worth 13.6 xPts, 4.4 more than their chances deserved. Dundee are next on 1.9.
Hibernian are the unluckiest side in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, with 7 points from performances worth 11.4 xPts, 4.4 short of what they deserved. Dundee United are next on 1.5.
Rangers would be top of the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 14.8 xPts from 16.6 xG created and 7.1 conceded across seven matches. Celtic are next on 13.6.
Celtic have created the most xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, 17.1 from seven matches, 2.5 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Rangers are next on 16.6.
Falkirk have created the least xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, 6.8 from seven matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Kilmarnock are next on 7.6.
Kilmarnock have conceded the most xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, 17.4 from seven matches, 2.5 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Motherwell are next on 13.1.
Rangers have conceded the least xG in the Scottish Premiership in 2026/2027, 7.1 from seven matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Celtic are next on 7.8.
Scottish Premiership teams have averaged 1.61 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 42 matches played, and have scored 1.27 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.45 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Scottish Premiership teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.71 a game against 1.50 away, a home advantage of +0.20, against +0.32 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rangers | 7 | 8 | 16.6 | -8.6 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 | +4 | 9.5 | -5.5 | 16 | 14.8 | +1.2 |
| 2 | Celtic | 7 | 14 | 17.1 | -3.1 | 4 | 7.8 | -3.8 | +10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | 18 | 13.6 | +4.4 |
| 3 | Hearts | 7 | 14 | 12.7 | +1.3 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 | +6 | 3.9 | +2.1 | 13 | 12.4 | +0.6 |
| 4 | Hibernian | 7 | 8 | 13.1 | -5.1 | 11 | 10.5 | +0.5 | -3 | 2.6 | -5.6 | 7 | 11.4 | -4.4 |
| 5 | St. Mirren | 7 | 8 | 11.4 | -3.4 | 9 | 11.6 | -2.6 | -1 | -0.2 | -0.8 | 10 | 9.7 | +0.3 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 7 | 9 | 12.3 | -3.3 | 11 | 12.4 | -1.4 | -2 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 |
| 7 | Motherwell | 7 | 9 | 10.5 | -1.5 | 11 | 13.1 | -2.1 | -2 | -2.6 | +0.6 | 8 | 9.1 | -1.1 |
| 8 | St. Johnstone | 7 | 9 | 10.3 | -1.3 | 10 | 11.3 | -1.3 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 |
| 9 | Dundee | 7 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 12.2 | -5.2 | +2 | -3.3 | +5.3 | 10 | 8.1 | +1.9 |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 7 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 11.1 | -3.1 | -1 | -3.4 | +2.4 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Falkirk | 7 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 9 | 12.0 | -3.0 | -3 | -5.2 | +2.2 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 7 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | 15 | 17.4 | -2.4 | -9 | -9.8 | +0.8 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 |