Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | +7 | 3.3 | +3.7 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 3 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | +4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 |
| 3 | Brentford | 3 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | +6 | 3.5 | +2.5 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 |
| 4 | AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | -1 | 2.5 | -3.5 | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 |
| 5 | Arsenal | 2 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | +4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 6 | Fulham | 3 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | -2 | 1.9 | -3.9 | 1 | 4.8 | -3.8 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 3 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | +3 | 0.6 | +2.4 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 |
| 8 | Nottingham Forest | 3 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | -2 | 0.4 | -2.4 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 |
| 9 | Everton | 3 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | +3 | 0.3 | +2.7 | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 |
| 10 | Manchester United | 2 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3 | +2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 11 | Tottenham Hotspur | 3 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | -3 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 2 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 | 5 | 2.7 | +2.3 | +1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| 13 | Ipswich Town | 2 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 | -1 | 0.8 | -1.8 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 2 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | -1 | 0.6 | -1.6 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 |
| 15 | Liverpool | 2 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | +0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 16 | Coventry City | 2 | 0 | 2.7 | -2.7 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 | -6 | -0.4 | -5.6 | 0 | 2.7 | -2.7 |
| 17 | Newcastle United | 3 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | +1 | -3.3 | +4.3 | 5 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| 18 | Hull City | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 0 | 3.5 | -3.5 | +2 | -1.8 | +3.8 | 4 | 1.6 | +2.4 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | -2 | -2.0 | +0.0 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | -4 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 3 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | +3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 |
| 2 | Manchester United | 3 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | -2 | 1.6 | -3.6 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 3 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 | -3 | 0.7 | -3.7 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 |
| 5 | Hull City | 3 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | +0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | Manchester City | 2 | 5 | 3.4 | +1.6 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | +4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 6 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest | 2 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | +1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | -3 | -2.2 | -0.8 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| 9 | Ipswich Town | 3 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | -3 | -2.9 | -0.1 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 |
| 10 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | -1 | -2.9 | +1.9 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 3 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | -3 | -2.6 | -0.4 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 12 | Leeds United | 2 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 1 | 3.1 | -2.1 | +1 | -0.3 | +1.3 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 |
| 13 | Brentford | 2 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | +0 | -0.6 | +0.6 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 |
| 14 | Everton | 2 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 1 | 3.4 | -2.4 | +0 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 |
| 15 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 | 8 | 3.8 | +4.2 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | +4 | -1.1 | +5.1 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 |
| 16 | AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 |
| 17 | Newcastle United | 2 | 3 | 1.7 | +1.3 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | -1 | -1.5 | +0.5 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 |
| 18 | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | -3 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 |
| 19 | Fulham | 2 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | -1 | -1.4 | +0.4 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 |
| 20 | Coventry City | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | -3 | -3.9 | +0.9 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 8 | 9.1 | -1.1 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | +4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 5 | 13 | 10.0 | +3.0 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | +8 | 4.5 | +3.5 | 15 | 9.7 | +5.3 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 5 | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 | 8 | 5.2 | +2.8 | +0 | 5.2 | -5.2 | 5 | 9.1 | -4.1 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 5 | 7 | 9.2 | -2.2 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | +3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 16 | 11.0 | +5.0 | 5 | 8.7 | -3.7 | +11 | 2.3 | +8.7 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 |
| 6 | Brentford | 5 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 | +6 | 2.9 | +3.1 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 4 | 7.6 | -3.6 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | -1 | 2.1 | -3.1 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 |
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth | 5 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 | -2 | 1.5 | -3.5 | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 5 | 6 | 9.3 | -3.3 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | -4 | 1.3 | -5.3 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 |
| 10 | Leeds United | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 7.0 | -4.0 | +4 | 0.3 | +3.7 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 |
| 11 | Everton | 5 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 3 | 7.2 | -4.2 | +3 | -0.7 | +3.7 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 12 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | -4 | -2.1 | -1.9 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| 13 | Fulham | 5 | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | -3 | 0.5 | -3.5 | 2 | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| 14 | Chelsea | 5 | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 | 12 | 8.6 | +3.4 | -2 | -0.8 | -1.2 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| 15 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 2 | 5.2 | -3.2 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | -6 | -3.1 | -2.9 | 2 | 5.7 | -3.7 |
| 16 | Hull City | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | +2 | -1.8 | +3.8 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 5 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | -5 | -4.2 | -0.8 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 | -9 | -4.3 | -4.7 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 |
| 19 | Newcastle United | 5 | 9 | 5.2 | +3.8 | 9 | 9.9 | -0.9 | +0 | -4.7 | +4.7 | 8 | 4.2 | +3.8 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.3 | -5 | -5.9 | +0.9 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
Brighton & Hove Albion are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Premier League in 2026/2027, with 16 goals from chances worth 11.0 xG, a gap of 5.0. Newcastle United are next on 3.8.
Nottingham Forest are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Premier League in 2026/2027, with 4 goals from chances worth 7.6 xG, a shortfall of 3.6. Sunderland and Fulham are next on 3.3.
Manchester City are the luckiest side in the Premier League in 2026/2027, with 15 points from performances worth 9.7 xPts, 5.3 more than their chances deserved. Newcastle United are next on 3.8.
AFC Bournemouth are the unluckiest side in the Premier League in 2026/2027, with 3 points from performances worth 7.9 xPts, 4.9 short of what they deserved. Fulham are next on 4.5.
Arsenal would be top of the Premier League in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 9.9 xPts from 9.1 xG created and 4.6 conceded across five matches. Manchester City are next on 9.7.
Brighton & Hove Albion have created the most xG in the Premier League in 2026/2027, 11.0 from five matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Manchester United are next on 10.4.
Coventry City have created the least xG in the Premier League in 2026/2027, 4.2 from five matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Aston Villa are next on 4.7.
Crystal Palace have conceded the most xG in the Premier League in 2026/2027, 11.3 from five matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Newcastle United are next on 9.9.
Arsenal have conceded the least xG in the Premier League in 2026/2027, 4.6 from five matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Manchester United are next on 5.2.
Premier League teams have averaged 1.50 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 50 matches played, and have scored 1.41 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.47 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Premier League teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.65 a game against 1.35 away, a home advantage of +0.30, against +0.32 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 8 | 9.1 | -1.1 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | +4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 5 | 13 | 10.0 | +3.0 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | +8 | 4.5 | +3.5 | 15 | 9.7 | +5.3 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 5 | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 | 8 | 5.2 | +2.8 | +0 | 5.2 | -5.2 | 5 | 9.1 | -4.1 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 5 | 7 | 9.2 | -2.2 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | +3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 5 | 16 | 11.0 | +5.0 | 5 | 8.7 | -3.7 | +11 | 2.3 | +8.7 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 |
| 6 | Brentford | 5 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 | +6 | 2.9 | +3.1 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest | 5 | 4 | 7.6 | -3.6 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | -1 | 2.1 | -3.1 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 |
| 8 | AFC Bournemouth | 5 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 | -2 | 1.5 | -3.5 | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 5 | 6 | 9.3 | -3.3 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | -4 | 1.3 | -5.3 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 |
| 10 | Leeds United | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 7.0 | -4.0 | +4 | 0.3 | +3.7 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 |
| 11 | Everton | 5 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 3 | 7.2 | -4.2 | +3 | -0.7 | +3.7 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 12 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | -4 | -2.1 | -1.9 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| 13 | Fulham | 5 | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | -3 | 0.5 | -3.5 | 2 | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| 14 | Chelsea | 5 | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 | 12 | 8.6 | +3.4 | -2 | -0.8 | -1.2 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| 15 | Tottenham Hotspur | 5 | 2 | 5.2 | -3.2 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | -6 | -3.1 | -2.9 | 2 | 5.7 | -3.7 |
| 16 | Hull City | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | +2 | -1.8 | +3.8 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
| 17 | Aston Villa | 5 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | -5 | -4.2 | -0.8 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 | -9 | -4.3 | -4.7 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 |
| 19 | Newcastle United | 5 | 9 | 5.2 | +3.8 | 9 | 9.9 | -0.9 | +0 | -4.7 | +4.7 | 8 | 4.2 | +3.8 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.3 | -5 | -5.9 | +0.9 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 |