Vitória Guimarães have the biggest shortfall in the Liga Portugal: 5 points from chances worth 13.7 xPts, a gap of 8.7. At the other end, Porto have taken 21 points from an xPts figure of 14.5, 6.5 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitória Guimarães | 4 | 2 | 8.8 | -6.8 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | +0 | 7.2 | -7.2 | 5 | 9.8 | -4.8 |
| 2 | Porto | 4 | 9 | 10.5 | -1.5 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | +7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 |
| 3 | Gil Vicente | 4 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | +2 | 4.8 | -2.8 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 |
| 4 | Benfica | 3 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | +3 | 5.9 | -2.9 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 4 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +5 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 4 | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | +5 | 2.6 | +2.4 | 10 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 7 | Nacional | 4 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 10 | 5.3 | +4.7 | -5 | 1.2 | -6.2 | 3 | 6.4 | -3.4 |
| 8 | Alverca | 4 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | +0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| 9 | Estoril | 4 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | -3 | -0.7 | -2.3 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 10 | Arouca | 3 | 7 | 4.2 | +2.8 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | +4 | 1.1 | +2.9 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 |
| 11 | Estrela Amadora | 4 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | -1 | -2.7 | +1.7 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 |
| 12 | MarÃtimo | 3 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 5 | 3.3 | +1.7 | -2 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| 13 | Sporting Braga | 2 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | +2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 3 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | -3 | -0.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 3 | 5 | 2.7 | +2.3 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | -2 | -2.4 | +0.4 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
| 16 | Famalicão | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | -1 | -2.4 | +1.4 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 3 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | 12 | 6.1 | +5.9 | -11 | -3.2 | -7.8 | 0 | 2.6 | -2.6 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 3 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 | -6 | -3.5 | -2.5 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 4 | 15 | 8.3 | +6.7 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | +12 | 5.4 | +6.6 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 3 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | +4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 |
| 3 | Sporting Braga | 4 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 2.9 | +2.1 | +0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 4 | Estrela Amadora | 3 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | 7 | 3.5 | +3.5 | +1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 3 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | +2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 |
| 6 | Porto | 3 | 9 | 5.9 | +3.1 | 1 | 3.8 | -2.8 | +8 | 2.1 | +5.9 | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 |
| 7 | Famalicão | 4 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | +3 | -0.2 | +3.2 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 |
| 8 | MarÃtimo | 4 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | -2 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 9 | Arouca | 4 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | -1 | -2.7 | +1.7 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 |
| 10 | Vitória Guimarães | 3 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | -3 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 0 | 3.8 | -3.8 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 4 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | -2 | -3.1 | +1.1 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| 12 | Academico Viseu | 4 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 4 | 8.3 | -4.3 | +3 | -3.8 | +6.8 | 8 | 3.6 | +4.4 |
| 13 | Moreirense | 4 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | -4 | -4.6 | +0.6 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
| 14 | Alverca | 3 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | -2 | -3.2 | +1.2 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 4 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | -4 | -5.7 | +1.7 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 |
| 16 | Nacional | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 | -3 | -5.1 | +2.1 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 |
| 17 | Gil Vicente | 2 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | -2 | -2.0 | +0.0 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 |
| 18 | Estoril | 3 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 | -4 | -4.1 | +0.1 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 5 | 13 | 10.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | +8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | 12 | 10.9 | +1.1 |
| 2 | Porto | 5 | 14 | 11.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | +11 | 6.6 | +4.4 | 15 | 10.5 | +4.5 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 5 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | +8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | 11 | 10.4 | +0.6 |
| 4 | Vitória Guimarães | 5 | 3 | 9.2 | -6.2 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | -1 | 4.9 | -5.9 | 5 | 9.6 | -4.6 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 5 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | +6 | 3.5 | +2.5 | 11 | 9.3 | +1.7 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga | 5 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | +2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 |
| 7 | Estrela Amadora | 5 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 | +0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 5 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | -1 | 1.3 | -2.3 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 |
| 9 | Arouca | 5 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | -2 | -0.7 | -1.3 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 |
| 10 | Academico Viseu | 5 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 | +1 | -1.3 | +2.3 | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 |
| 11 | Alverca | 5 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | +0 | -2.3 | +2.3 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 |
| 12 | Famalicão | 5 | 7 | 4.2 | +2.8 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | +3 | -2.5 | +5.5 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 5 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 | -5 | -3.1 | -1.9 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 |
| 14 | Estoril | 5 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | -5 | -3.1 | -1.9 | 1 | 5.0 | -4.0 |
| 15 | MarÃtimo | 5 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | 11 | 7.6 | +3.4 | -6 | -3.3 | -2.7 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 |
| 16 | Nacional | 5 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | 13 | 10.0 | +3.0 | -10 | -4.9 | -5.1 | 0 | 4.5 | -4.5 |
| 17 | Moreirense | 5 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | -2 | -4.9 | +2.9 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 5 | 5 | 3.6 | +1.4 | 12 | 10.1 | +1.9 | -7 | -6.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
Benfica are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, with 22 goals from chances worth 16.5 xG, a gap of 5.5. Sporting CP are next on 4.2.
Vitória Guimarães are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, with 5 goals from chances worth 12.7 xG, a shortfall of 7.7. Casa Pia are next on 3.7.
Porto are the luckiest side in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, with 21 points from performances worth 14.5 xPts, 6.5 more than their chances deserved. Academico Viseu are next on 3.7.
Vitória Guimarães are the unluckiest side in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, with 5 points from performances worth 13.7 xPts, 8.7 short of what they deserved. Estoril are next on 4.6.
Benfica would be top of Liga Portugal in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 16.1 xPts from 16.5 xG created and 5.2 conceded across seven matches. Porto are next on 14.5.
Benfica have created the most xG in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, 16.5 from seven matches, 2.4 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Porto are next on 16.4.
Rio Ave have created the least xG in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, 4.5 from seven matches, 0.6 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Moreirense are next on 5.4.
Rio Ave have conceded the most xG in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, 13.7 from seven matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Academico Viseu and Casa Pia are next on 12.9.
Sporting Braga have conceded the least xG in Liga Portugal in 2026/2027, 4.2 from six matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Benfica are next on 5.2.
Liga Portugal teams have averaged 1.33 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 62 matches played, and have scored 1.37 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.32 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Liga Portugal teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.47 a game against 1.18 away, a home advantage of +0.29, against +0.20 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 7 | 22 | 16.5 | +5.5 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | +15 | 11.3 | +3.7 | 16 | 16.1 | -0.1 |
| 2 | Porto | 7 | 18 | 16.4 | +1.6 | 3 | 7.7 | -4.7 | +15 | 8.6 | +6.4 | 21 | 14.5 | +6.5 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 7 | 17 | 12.8 | +4.2 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | +9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 15 | 14.0 | +1.0 |
| 4 | Vitória Guimarães | 7 | 5 | 12.7 | -7.7 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | -3 | 6.9 | -9.9 | 5 | 13.7 | -8.7 |
| 5 | Santa Clara | 7 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 | +7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 15 | 12.8 | +2.2 |
| 6 | Sporting Braga | 6 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | +2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | +0 | 2.8 | -2.8 | 8 | 10.3 | -2.3 |
| 8 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 14 | 10.4 | +3.6 | 14 | 10.3 | +3.7 | +0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 10 | 9.6 | +0.4 |
| 9 | Arouca | 7 | 10 | 8.1 | +1.9 | 7 | 9.7 | -2.7 | +3 | -1.6 | +4.6 | 11 | 9.1 | +1.9 |
| 10 | MarÃtimo | 7 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 | -4 | -2.1 | -1.9 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Nacional | 7 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | 15 | 12.3 | +2.7 | -8 | -3.9 | -4.1 | 4 | 8.0 | -4.0 |
| 12 | Famalicão | 7 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 | +2 | -2.5 | +4.5 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Alverca | 7 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 | 11 | 11.7 | -0.7 | -2 | -2.9 | +0.9 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 7 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 | 9 | 12.9 | -3.9 | +0 | -4.3 | +4.3 | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 |
| 15 | Estoril | 7 | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 | 10 | 11.0 | -1.0 | -7 | -4.8 | -2.2 | 2 | 6.6 | -4.6 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 7 | 3 | 6.7 | -3.7 | 16 | 12.9 | +3.1 | -13 | -6.3 | -6.7 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Moreirense | 7 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 | 14 | 12.4 | +1.6 | -6 | -7.0 | +1.0 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 7 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 | 15 | 13.7 | +1.3 | -10 | -9.2 | -0.8 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |