Santos Laguna have the biggest shortfall in the Liga MX: 17 points from chances worth 31.0 xPts, a gap of 14.0. At the other end, Cruz Azul have taken 74 points from an xPts figure of 61.6, 12.4 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 17 | 34 | 27.7 | +6.3 | 10 | 12.0 | -2.0 | +24 | 15.6 | +8.4 | 41 | 34.1 | +6.9 |
| 2 | América | 17 | 36 | 29.6 | +6.4 | 10 | 12.1 | -2.1 | +26 | 17.5 | +8.5 | 36 | 33.0 | +3.0 |
| 3 | Toluca | 16 | 47 | 25.1 | +21.9 | 14 | 12.4 | +1.6 | +33 | 12.7 | +20.3 | 42 | 29.7 | +12.3 |
| 4 | Pachuca | 16 | 26 | 23.3 | +2.7 | 20 | 13.4 | +6.6 | +6 | 10.0 | -4.0 | 25 | 28.6 | -3.6 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 27 | 25.1 | +1.9 | 10 | 15.3 | -5.3 | +17 | 9.8 | +7.2 | 41 | 28.2 | +12.8 |
| 6 | Monterrey | 16 | 31 | 28.1 | +2.9 | 22 | 18.7 | +3.3 | +9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | 30 | 27.8 | +2.2 |
| 7 | León | 16 | 20 | 22.1 | -2.1 | 12 | 14.0 | -2.0 | +8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | 28 | 27.0 | +1.0 |
| 8 | Tijuana | 17 | 35 | 28.0 | +7.0 | 32 | 24.9 | +7.1 | +3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | 29 | 25.9 | +3.1 |
| 9 | Atlas | 16 | 21 | 18.2 | +2.8 | 22 | 16.1 | +5.9 | -1 | 2.0 | -3.0 | 22 | 23.3 | -1.3 |
| 10 | Mazatlán | 17 | 21 | 21.7 | -0.7 | 22 | 22.7 | -0.7 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 23 | 23.1 | -0.1 |
| 11 | Atlético San Luis | 15 | 28 | 21.0 | +7.0 | 18 | 16.3 | +1.7 | +10 | 4.7 | +5.3 | 31 | 22.9 | +8.1 |
| 12 | Necaxa | 16 | 28 | 23.8 | +4.2 | 20 | 21.7 | -1.7 | +8 | 2.2 | +5.8 | 27 | 22.9 | +4.1 |
| 13 | Juárez | 16 | 19 | 19.5 | -0.5 | 25 | 21.3 | +3.7 | -6 | -1.8 | -4.2 | 19 | 21.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | Puebla | 15 | 17 | 18.8 | -1.8 | 26 | 19.6 | +6.4 | -9 | -0.8 | -8.2 | 11 | 20.1 | -9.1 |
| 15 | Santos Laguna | 17 | 15 | 22.4 | -7.4 | 30 | 27.9 | +2.1 | -15 | -5.5 | -9.5 | 15 | 20.1 | -5.1 |
| 16 | Guadalajara | 11 | 10 | 14.2 | -4.2 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | +2 | 5.6 | -3.6 | 17 | 18.6 | -1.6 |
| 17 | Pumas UNAM | 12 | 13 | 12.6 | +0.4 | 11 | 10.9 | +0.1 | +2 | 1.8 | +0.2 | 18 | 17.7 | +0.3 |
| 18 | Querétaro | 15 | 15 | 13.1 | +1.9 | 18 | 20.9 | -2.9 | -3 | -7.8 | +4.8 | 20 | 15.5 | +4.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 29 | 24.2 | +4.8 | 16 | 15.1 | +0.9 | +13 | 9.1 | +3.9 | 33 | 27.4 | +5.6 |
| 2 | América | 16 | 25 | 24.4 | +0.6 | 20 | 15.9 | +4.1 | +5 | 8.4 | -3.4 | 25 | 27.3 | -2.3 |
| 3 | Pumas UNAM | 17 | 23 | 21.6 | +1.4 | 25 | 18.1 | +6.9 | -2 | 3.5 | -5.5 | 22 | 25.3 | -3.3 |
| 4 | Toluca | 15 | 26 | 24.8 | +1.2 | 20 | 19.5 | +0.5 | +6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | 23 | 23.7 | -0.7 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 15 | 17 | 22.3 | -5.3 | 17 | 17.9 | -0.9 | +0 | 4.4 | -4.4 | 19 | 23.2 | -4.2 |
| 6 | Monterrey | 14 | 22 | 19.4 | +2.6 | 17 | 15.9 | +1.1 | +5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | 22 | 21.6 | +0.4 |
| 7 | Guadalajara | 17 | 19 | 17.2 | +1.8 | 24 | 22.1 | +1.9 | -5 | -4.9 | -0.1 | 16 | 19.7 | -3.7 |
| 8 | Atlas | 14 | 12 | 14.8 | -2.8 | 25 | 16.6 | +8.4 | -13 | -1.8 | -11.2 | 11 | 17.4 | -6.4 |
| 9 | Pachuca | 14 | 17 | 13.5 | +3.5 | 25 | 16.5 | +8.5 | -8 | -3.1 | -4.9 | 12 | 17.3 | -5.3 |
| 10 | Juárez | 16 | 17 | 16.1 | +0.9 | 25 | 22.6 | +2.4 | -8 | -6.5 | -1.5 | 21 | 17.3 | +3.7 |
| 11 | León | 16 | 25 | 16.7 | +8.3 | 28 | 25.5 | +2.5 | -3 | -8.9 | +5.9 | 20 | 16.1 | +3.9 |
| 12 | Necaxa | 16 | 24 | 17.8 | +6.2 | 30 | 28.1 | +1.9 | -6 | -10.3 | +4.3 | 16 | 15.9 | +0.1 |
| 13 | Atlético San Luis | 16 | 17 | 14.3 | +2.7 | 29 | 24.1 | +4.9 | -12 | -9.8 | -2.2 | 14 | 15.4 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Mazatlán | 16 | 5 | 12.2 | -7.2 | 21 | 22.6 | -1.6 | -16 | -10.4 | -5.6 | 8 | 15.3 | -7.3 |
| 15 | Tijuana | 15 | 16 | 14.9 | +1.1 | 26 | 28.5 | -2.5 | -10 | -13.6 | +3.6 | 16 | 14.1 | +1.9 |
| 16 | Querétaro | 17 | 13 | 12.4 | +0.6 | 33 | 27.9 | +5.1 | -20 | -15.6 | -4.4 | 12 | 14.1 | -2.1 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 12 | 13.0 | -1.0 | 35 | 32.1 | +2.9 | -23 | -19.1 | -3.9 | 2 | 10.9 | -8.9 |
| 18 | Puebla | 15 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 | 27 | 25.3 | +1.7 | -16 | -15.7 | -0.3 | 9 | 10.0 | -1.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 5 | 13 | 10.4 | +2.6 | 8 | 4.8 | +3.2 | +5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 12 | 10.0 | +2.0 |
| 2 | Monterrey | 5 | 12 | 10.7 | +1.3 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | +5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 |
| 3 | América | 5 | 11 | 8.2 | +2.8 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | +9 | 3.9 | +5.1 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 |
| 4 | Tijuana | 5 | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | +7 | 1.4 | +5.6 | 12 | 8.4 | +3.6 |
| 5 | León | 5 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | -2 | 1.5 | -3.5 | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 |
| 6 | Atlas | 5 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | 11 | 5.9 | +5.1 | -2 | 2.0 | -4.0 | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 5 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | +2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Pachuca | 5 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | +3 | 1.1 | +1.9 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 9 | Pumas UNAM | 5 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | +1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 10 | Cruz Azul | 5 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | +6 | 0.7 | +5.3 | 13 | 7.3 | +5.7 |
| 11 | Querétaro | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | +2 | 0.5 | +1.5 | 10 | 7.1 | +2.9 |
| 12 | Atlético San Luis | 5 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | -1 | -0.2 | -0.8 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 13 | Juárez | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | +0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 |
| 14 | Guadalajara | 5 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | -3 | -1.2 | -1.8 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 |
| 15 | Santos Laguna | 5 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 13 | 6.5 | +6.5 | -9 | -1.7 | -7.3 | 0 | 5.5 | -5.5 |
| 16 | Puebla | 5 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | -8 | -3.8 | -4.2 | 1 | 4.4 | -3.4 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 5 | 10 | 4.4 | +5.6 | 9 | 9.4 | -0.4 | +1 | -5.0 | +6.0 | 10 | 4.4 | +5.6 |
| 18 | Mazatlán | 5 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 | -7 | -5.6 | -1.4 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
Toluca overperformed their xG by more than any other side in Liga MX in 2024/2025, with 73 goals from chances worth 49.9 xG, a gap of 23.1. Cruz Azul were next on 11.2.
Santos Laguna underperformed their xG by more than any other side in Liga MX in 2024/2025, with 27 goals from chances worth 35.4 xG, a shortfall of 8.4. Mazatlán were next on 8.0.
Cruz Azul were the luckiest side in Liga MX in 2024/2025, with 74 points from performances worth 61.6 xPts, 12.4 more than their chances deserved. Toluca were next on 11.6.
Santos Laguna were the unluckiest side in Liga MX in 2024/2025, with 17 points from performances worth 31.0 xPts, 14.0 short of what they deserved. Puebla were next on 10.1.
Cruz Azul were also top of Liga MX in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 61.6 xPts from 51.8 xG created and 27.1 conceded across 33 matches. América were next on 60.3.
América created the most xG in Liga MX in 2024/2025, 54.0 from 33 matches, 1.6 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Cruz Azul were next on 51.8.
Querétaro created the least xG in Liga MX in 2024/2025, 25.5 from 32 matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Puebla were next on 28.4.
Santos Laguna conceded the most xG in Liga MX in 2024/2025, 60.0 from 33 matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Tijuana were next on 53.4.
Cruz Azul conceded the least xG in Liga MX in 2024/2025, 27.1 from 33 matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.3. América were next on 28.1.
Liga MX teams averaged 1.25 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 281 matches played, and scored 1.38 goals a game from it.
Liga MX teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.40 a game against 1.10 away, a home advantage of +0.30.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 33 | 63 | 51.8 | +11.2 | 26 | 27.1 | -1.1 | +37 | 24.7 | +12.3 | 74 | 61.6 | +12.4 |
| 2 | América | 33 | 61 | 54.0 | +7.0 | 30 | 28.1 | +1.9 | +31 | 25.9 | +5.1 | 61 | 60.3 | +0.7 |
| 3 | Toluca | 31 | 73 | 49.9 | +23.1 | 34 | 31.9 | +2.1 | +39 | 17.9 | +21.1 | 65 | 53.4 | +11.6 |
| 4 | Tigres UANL | 31 | 44 | 47.4 | -3.4 | 27 | 33.2 | -6.2 | +17 | 14.2 | +2.8 | 60 | 51.4 | +8.6 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 30 | 53 | 47.5 | +5.5 | 39 | 34.6 | +4.4 | +14 | 12.9 | +1.1 | 52 | 49.4 | +2.6 |
| 6 | Pachuca | 30 | 43 | 36.8 | +6.2 | 45 | 29.9 | +15.1 | -2 | 6.9 | -8.9 | 37 | 45.8 | -8.8 |
| 7 | León | 32 | 45 | 38.8 | +6.2 | 40 | 39.5 | +0.5 | +5 | -0.7 | +5.7 | 48 | 43.1 | +4.9 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM | 29 | 36 | 34.2 | +1.8 | 36 | 29.0 | +7.0 | +0 | 5.2 | -5.2 | 40 | 43.0 | -3.0 |
| 9 | Atlas | 30 | 33 | 32.9 | +0.1 | 47 | 32.7 | +14.3 | -14 | 0.2 | -14.2 | 33 | 40.7 | -7.7 |
| 10 | Tijuana | 32 | 51 | 43.0 | +8.0 | 58 | 53.4 | +4.6 | -7 | -10.4 | +3.4 | 45 | 40.0 | +5.0 |
| 11 | Necaxa | 32 | 52 | 41.6 | +10.4 | 50 | 49.7 | +0.3 | +2 | -8.1 | +10.1 | 43 | 38.9 | +4.1 |
| 12 | Juárez | 32 | 36 | 35.6 | +0.4 | 50 | 43.9 | +6.1 | -14 | -8.4 | -5.6 | 40 | 38.6 | +1.4 |
| 13 | Guadalajara | 28 | 29 | 31.4 | -2.4 | 32 | 30.7 | +1.3 | -3 | 0.7 | -3.7 | 33 | 38.4 | -5.4 |
| 14 | Atlético San Luis | 31 | 45 | 35.3 | +9.7 | 47 | 40.4 | +6.6 | -2 | -5.2 | +3.2 | 45 | 38.4 | +6.6 |
| 15 | Mazatlán | 33 | 26 | 34.0 | -8.0 | 43 | 45.3 | -2.3 | -17 | -11.3 | -5.7 | 31 | 38.4 | -7.4 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 33 | 27 | 35.4 | -8.4 | 65 | 60.0 | +5.0 | -38 | -24.6 | -13.4 | 17 | 31.0 | -14.0 |
| 17 | Puebla | 30 | 28 | 28.4 | -0.4 | 53 | 44.9 | +8.1 | -25 | -16.5 | -8.5 | 20 | 30.1 | -10.1 |
| 18 | Querétaro | 32 | 28 | 25.5 | +2.5 | 51 | 48.8 | +2.2 | -23 | -23.4 | +0.4 | 32 | 29.6 | +2.4 |