Necaxa have the biggest shortfall in the Liga MX: 8 points from chances worth 14.2 xPts, a gap of 6.2. At the other end, Querétaro have taken 17 points from an xPts figure of 12.0, 5.0 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tijuana | 6 | 10 | 12.9 | -2.9 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | +4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 12 | 12.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | Toluca | 5 | 15 | 11.2 | +3.8 | 8 | 4.8 | +3.2 | +7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | 9 | 10.6 | -1.6 |
| 3 | Monterrey | 5 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | +5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 10 | 9.7 | +0.3 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 6 | 12 | 12.0 | +0.0 | 12 | 10.0 | +2.0 | +0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 |
| 5 | Necaxa | 6 | 8 | 10.7 | -2.7 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 | -4 | 1.7 | -5.7 | 6 | 9.5 | -3.5 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 5 | 3 | 8.7 | -5.7 | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 | +0 | 2.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| 7 | Atlético San Luis | 5 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 5.2 | +2.8 | -2 | 1.5 | -3.5 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 |
| 8 | Guadalajara | 5 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | +3 | 1.7 | +1.3 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 9 | León | 5 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | +5 | 0.8 | +4.2 | 12 | 7.2 | +4.8 |
| 10 | Tigres UANL | 4 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | +3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| 11 | América | 4 | 10 | 6.0 | +4.0 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | +8 | 1.1 | +6.9 | 10 | 6.3 | +3.7 |
| 12 | Pachuca | 4 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | -2 | 0.6 | -2.6 | 2 | 5.9 | -3.9 |
| 13 | Pumas UNAM | 5 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 |
| 14 | Atlante | 5 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | -1 | -1.4 | +0.4 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 15 | Atlas | 5 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | -3 | -2.8 | -0.2 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 16 | Juárez | 5 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 | -6 | -2.9 | -3.1 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 |
| 17 | Querétaro | 4 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | -1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 18 | Puebla | 4 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | +0 | -3.1 | +3.1 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | América | 5 | 11 | 11.9 | -0.9 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | +3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 |
| 2 | Toluca | 5 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 | +4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 |
| 3 | Guadalajara | 5 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 | +4 | 1.4 | +2.6 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 |
| 4 | Tigres UANL | 6 | 4 | 8.5 | -4.5 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 | -6 | -0.4 | -5.6 | 2 | 7.6 | -5.6 |
| 5 | Pachuca | 6 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 | 3 | 8.6 | -5.6 | +6 | -2.3 | +8.3 | 10 | 7.3 | +2.7 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 4 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | +1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 |
| 7 | Querétaro | 5 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 2 | 7.0 | -5.0 | +6 | 0.2 | +5.8 | 13 | 7.0 | +6.0 |
| 8 | Atlas | 5 | 11 | 8.3 | +2.7 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | +2 | -0.1 | +2.1 | 12 | 6.9 | +5.1 |
| 9 | Atlante | 5 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | -2 | -0.6 | -1.4 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 10 | León | 5 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | -2 | -1.1 | -0.9 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 |
| 11 | Puebla | 6 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 9.3 | -2.3 | -1 | -2.9 | +1.9 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 4 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | -3 | -0.7 | -2.3 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 |
| 13 | Pumas UNAM | 5 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | +0 | -2.7 | +2.7 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 5 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 12 | 9.7 | +2.3 | -5 | -3.0 | -2.0 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 4 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | -4 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 |
| 16 | Atlético San Luis | 5 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | -2 | -3.7 | +1.7 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 |
| 17 | Tijuana | 3 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | -3 | -1.8 | -1.2 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 |
| 18 | Juárez | 5 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 15 | 11.9 | +3.1 | -12 | -8.1 | -3.9 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 5 | 15 | 11.5 | +3.5 | 8 | 4.8 | +3.2 | +7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 10 | 10.8 | -0.8 |
| 2 | América | 5 | 13 | 11.0 | +2.0 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 | +4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 5 | 11 | 8.4 | +2.6 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | +3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 5 | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 | -5 | 1.7 | -6.7 | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 |
| 5 | León | 5 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | +1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 |
| 6 | Atlante | 5 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | -1 | 1.4 | -2.4 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 |
| 7 | Tijuana | 5 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | 11 | 9.0 | +2.0 | -3 | 1.1 | -4.1 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 |
| 8 | Santos Laguna | 5 | 6 | 9.5 | -3.5 | 4 | 8.5 | -4.5 | +2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 |
| 9 | Querétaro | 5 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | 4 | 8.5 | -4.5 | +4 | -0.2 | +4.2 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 |
| 10 | Atlas | 5 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 | 12 | 8.4 | +3.6 | -4 | 0.0 | -4.0 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 5 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 | +4 | -0.4 | +4.4 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Tigres UANL | 5 | 2 | 7.1 | -5.1 | 3 | 7.7 | -4.7 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 |
| 13 | Atlético San Luis | 5 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | +0 | -1.1 | +1.1 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 |
| 14 | Guadalajara | 5 | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | +4 | -0.8 | +4.8 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 5 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 | -7 | -1.9 | -5.1 | 1 | 5.7 | -4.7 |
| 16 | Juárez | 5 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 | 10 | 10.3 | -0.3 | -6 | -4.5 | -1.5 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 |
| 17 | Pumas UNAM | 5 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | 10 | 9.7 | +0.3 | -4 | -4.4 | +0.4 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 18 | Puebla | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 | -3 | -4.4 | +1.4 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
Toluca are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in Liga MX in 2026/2027, with 23 goals from chances worth 19.5 xG, a gap of 3.5. Pumas UNAM are next on 3.4.
Tigres UANL are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in Liga MX in 2026/2027, with 10 goals from chances worth 15.5 xG, a shortfall of 5.5. Santos Laguna are next on 5.3.
Querétaro are the luckiest side in Liga MX in 2026/2027, with 17 points from performances worth 12.0 xPts, 5.0 more than their chances deserved. Atlas are next on 4.8.
Necaxa are the unluckiest side in Liga MX in 2026/2027, with 8 points from performances worth 14.2 xPts, 6.2 short of what they deserved. Juárez are next on 5.0.
Toluca would also be top of Liga MX in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 19.2 xPts from 19.5 xG created and 10.5 conceded across ten matches. Cruz Azul are next on 16.6.
Toluca have created the most xG in Liga MX in 2026/2027, 19.5 from ten matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Cruz Azul are next on 18.8.
Juárez have created the least xG in Liga MX in 2026/2027, 9.1 from ten matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Puebla are next on 9.7.
Juárez have conceded the most xG in Liga MX in 2026/2027, 20.1 from ten matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Atlas are next on 17.4.
Toluca have conceded the least xG in Liga MX in 2026/2027, 10.5 from ten matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Monterrey are next on 11.0.
Liga MX teams have averaged 1.49 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 88 matches played, and have scored 1.47 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.36 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Liga MX teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.59 a game against 1.39 away, a home advantage of +0.20, against +0.28 in 2025/2026.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 10 | 23 | 19.5 | +3.5 | 12 | 10.5 | +1.5 | +11 | 9.0 | +2.0 | 20 | 19.2 | +0.8 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 19 | 18.8 | +0.2 | 18 | 14.3 | +3.7 | +1 | 4.4 | -3.4 | 16 | 16.6 | -0.6 |
| 3 | América | 9 | 21 | 17.9 | +3.1 | 10 | 12.8 | -2.8 | +11 | 5.1 | +5.9 | 20 | 15.6 | +4.4 |
| 4 | Guadalajara | 10 | 17 | 14.9 | +2.1 | 10 | 11.9 | -1.9 | +7 | 3.0 | +4.0 | 18 | 15.6 | +2.4 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 9 | 16 | 14.8 | +1.2 | 14 | 11.0 | +3.0 | +2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 13 | 15.0 | -2.0 |
| 6 | Tijuana | 9 | 14 | 16.5 | -2.5 | 13 | 12.5 | +0.5 | +1 | 4.1 | -3.1 | 14 | 14.9 | -0.9 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 10 | 10 | 15.5 | -5.5 | 13 | 14.1 | -1.1 | -3 | 1.4 | -4.4 | 10 | 14.4 | -4.4 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 10 | 12 | 16.8 | -4.8 | 20 | 16.1 | +3.9 | -8 | 0.7 | -8.7 | 8 | 14.2 | -6.2 |
| 9 | León | 10 | 14 | 14.5 | -0.5 | 11 | 14.8 | -3.8 | +3 | -0.3 | +3.3 | 17 | 13.5 | +3.5 |
| 10 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 10 | 15.3 | -5.3 | 15 | 15.8 | -0.8 | -5 | -0.5 | -4.5 | 10 | 13.1 | -3.1 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 10 | 15 | 14.5 | +0.5 | 11 | 16.2 | -5.2 | +4 | -1.7 | +5.7 | 12 | 13.1 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Atlético San Luis | 10 | 14 | 12.3 | +1.7 | 18 | 14.5 | +3.5 | -4 | -2.2 | -1.8 | 12 | 12.7 | -0.7 |
| 13 | Atlante | 10 | 12 | 13.0 | -1.0 | 15 | 15.1 | -0.1 | -3 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 11 | 12.4 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Atlas | 10 | 16 | 14.5 | +1.5 | 17 | 17.4 | -0.4 | -1 | -2.9 | +1.9 | 17 | 12.2 | +4.8 |
| 15 | Querétaro | 9 | 13 | 14.3 | -1.3 | 8 | 15.0 | -7.0 | +5 | -0.7 | +5.7 | 17 | 12.0 | +5.0 |
| 16 | Pumas UNAM | 10 | 14 | 10.6 | +3.4 | 16 | 14.8 | +1.2 | -2 | -4.1 | +2.1 | 12 | 11.1 | +0.9 |
| 17 | Puebla | 10 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 | 12 | 15.6 | -3.6 | -1 | -5.9 | +4.9 | 14 | 10.1 | +3.9 |
| 18 | Juárez | 10 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 | 25 | 20.1 | +4.9 | -18 | -10.9 | -7.1 | 3 | 8.0 | -5.0 |