Shrewsbury Town have the biggest shortfall in the League One: 33 points from chances worth 52.3 xPts, a gap of 19.3. At the other end, Birmingham City have taken 111 points from an xPts figure of 85.5, 25.5 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham City | 23 | 47 | 46.4 | +0.6 | 11 | 13.2 | -2.2 | +36 | 33.2 | +2.8 | 61 | 50.5 | +10.5 |
| 2 | Wycombe Wanderers | 22 | 27 | 36.6 | -9.6 | 18 | 18.0 | +0.0 | +9 | 18.6 | -9.6 | 41 | 43.0 | -2.0 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 22 | 40 | 37.6 | +2.4 | 21 | 18.8 | +2.2 | +19 | 18.9 | +0.1 | 49 | 42.2 | +6.8 |
| 4 | Bolton Wanderers | 23 | 36 | 37.3 | -1.3 | 32 | 22.1 | +9.9 | +4 | 15.2 | -11.2 | 37 | 40.6 | -3.6 |
| 5 | Charlton Athletic | 23 | 38 | 31.9 | +6.1 | 16 | 18.7 | -2.7 | +22 | 13.2 | +8.8 | 51 | 40.4 | +10.6 |
| 6 | Lincoln City | 22 | 35 | 31.3 | +3.7 | 24 | 19.2 | +4.8 | +11 | 12.1 | -1.1 | 33 | 37.4 | -4.4 |
| 7 | Huddersfield Town | 23 | 27 | 30.7 | -3.7 | 24 | 20.6 | +3.4 | +3 | 10.0 | -7.0 | 34 | 37.3 | -3.3 |
| 8 | Rotherham United | 23 | 35 | 37.0 | -2.0 | 30 | 27.9 | +2.1 | +5 | 9.1 | -4.1 | 38 | 37.0 | +1.0 |
| 9 | Blackpool | 23 | 35 | 34.0 | +1.0 | 29 | 24.4 | +4.6 | +6 | 9.6 | -3.6 | 32 | 36.8 | -4.8 |
| 10 | Stevenage | 23 | 28 | 28.9 | -0.9 | 26 | 21.3 | +4.7 | +2 | 7.6 | -5.6 | 32 | 36.3 | -4.3 |
| 11 | Wrexham | 23 | 41 | 33.9 | +7.1 | 15 | 26.1 | -11.1 | +26 | 7.7 | +18.3 | 53 | 36.1 | +16.9 |
| 12 | Leyton Orient | 23 | 33 | 30.6 | +2.4 | 19 | 25.4 | -6.4 | +14 | 5.1 | +8.9 | 40 | 34.9 | +5.1 |
| 13 | Cambridge United | 22 | 25 | 28.5 | -3.5 | 29 | 25.1 | +3.9 | -4 | 3.4 | -7.4 | 21 | 32.3 | -11.3 |
| 14 | Wigan Athletic | 23 | 20 | 23.1 | -3.1 | 23 | 22.1 | +0.9 | -3 | 1.0 | -4.0 | 28 | 31.7 | -3.7 |
| 15 | Mansfield Town | 23 | 30 | 31.8 | -1.8 | 34 | 34.1 | -0.1 | -4 | -2.3 | -1.7 | 28 | 31.5 | -3.5 |
| 16 | Peterborough United | 23 | 38 | 33.2 | +4.8 | 36 | 33.9 | +2.1 | +2 | -0.8 | +2.8 | 31 | 30.8 | +0.2 |
| 17 | Barnsley | 23 | 33 | 31.0 | +2.0 | 36 | 34.5 | +1.5 | -3 | -3.5 | +0.5 | 26 | 30.3 | -4.3 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury Town | 23 | 20 | 28.3 | -8.3 | 37 | 32.6 | +4.4 | -17 | -4.3 | -12.7 | 18 | 28.9 | -10.9 |
| 19 | Reading | 23 | 37 | 26.3 | +10.7 | 21 | 30.5 | -9.5 | +16 | -4.3 | +20.3 | 46 | 28.4 | +17.6 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 23 | 30 | 26.0 | +4.0 | 33 | 30.4 | +2.6 | -3 | -4.5 | +1.5 | 30 | 28.3 | +1.7 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 23 | 31 | 24.4 | +6.6 | 35 | 30.7 | +4.3 | -4 | -6.2 | +2.2 | 27 | 27.6 | -0.6 |
| 22 | Northampton Town | 23 | 24 | 20.5 | +3.5 | 31 | 28.3 | +2.7 | -7 | -7.8 | +0.8 | 28 | 25.6 | +2.4 |
| 23 | Bristol Rovers | 22 | 30 | 25.7 | +4.3 | 32 | 35.4 | -3.4 | -2 | -9.7 | +7.7 | 30 | 25.6 | +4.4 |
| 24 | Burton Albion | 23 | 30 | 23.2 | +6.8 | 34 | 34.2 | -0.2 | -4 | -10.9 | +6.9 | 24 | 24.3 | -0.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wycombe Wanderers | 23 | 43 | 38.4 | +4.6 | 27 | 25.5 | +1.5 | +16 | 12.9 | +3.1 | 42 | 39.6 | +2.4 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 23 | 30 | 31.5 | -1.5 | 20 | 22.3 | -2.3 | +10 | 9.1 | +0.9 | 35 | 36.6 | -1.6 |
| 3 | Birmingham City | 23 | 37 | 25.8 | +11.2 | 20 | 19.9 | +0.1 | +17 | 5.9 | +11.1 | 50 | 35.1 | +14.9 |
| 4 | Huddersfield Town | 22 | 27 | 30.8 | -3.8 | 31 | 25.7 | +5.3 | -4 | 5.1 | -9.1 | 27 | 33.6 | -6.6 |
| 5 | Charlton Athletic | 23 | 29 | 28.1 | +0.9 | 27 | 25.3 | +1.7 | +2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 34 | 32.7 | +1.3 |
| 6 | Blackpool | 23 | 37 | 30.6 | +6.4 | 31 | 29.9 | +1.1 | +6 | 0.7 | +5.3 | 35 | 32.4 | +2.6 |
| 7 | Mansfield Town | 23 | 30 | 30.8 | -0.8 | 39 | 29.5 | +9.5 | -9 | 1.3 | -10.3 | 26 | 32.2 | -6.2 |
| 8 | Wrexham | 22 | 25 | 26.2 | -1.2 | 18 | 25.2 | -7.2 | +7 | 1.1 | +5.9 | 38 | 30.8 | +7.2 |
| 9 | Lincoln City | 23 | 27 | 25.3 | +1.7 | 32 | 25.9 | +6.1 | -5 | -0.6 | -4.4 | 25 | 30.7 | -5.7 |
| 10 | Barnsley | 23 | 36 | 25.8 | +10.2 | 37 | 29.6 | +7.4 | -1 | -3.8 | +2.8 | 35 | 29.9 | +5.1 |
| 11 | Peterborough United | 22 | 29 | 32.5 | -3.5 | 43 | 35.0 | +8.0 | -14 | -2.4 | -11.6 | 20 | 29.6 | -9.6 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 23 | 14 | 20.8 | -6.8 | 24 | 23.8 | +0.2 | -10 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 25 | 29.1 | -4.1 |
| 13 | Wigan Athletic | 23 | 20 | 23.5 | -3.5 | 19 | 24.9 | -5.9 | +1 | -1.4 | +2.4 | 28 | 28.3 | -0.3 |
| 14 | Leyton Orient | 23 | 39 | 26.3 | +12.7 | 29 | 32.2 | -3.2 | +10 | -5.8 | +15.8 | 38 | 27.3 | +10.7 |
| 15 | Rotherham United | 23 | 19 | 26.1 | -7.1 | 29 | 35.2 | -6.2 | -10 | -9.1 | -0.9 | 21 | 26.4 | -5.4 |
| 16 | Bolton Wanderers | 22 | 31 | 24.4 | +6.6 | 38 | 32.1 | +5.9 | -7 | -7.7 | +0.7 | 30 | 26.1 | +3.9 |
| 17 | Reading | 22 | 31 | 29.2 | +1.8 | 34 | 37.8 | -3.8 | -3 | -8.6 | +5.6 | 29 | 25.6 | +3.4 |
| 18 | Crawley Town | 23 | 26 | 26.0 | +0.0 | 48 | 37.6 | +10.4 | -22 | -11.6 | -10.4 | 19 | 25.0 | -6.0 |
| 19 | Cambridge United | 23 | 20 | 22.1 | -2.1 | 40 | 35.4 | +4.6 | -20 | -13.3 | -6.7 | 17 | 24.3 | -7.3 |
| 20 | Shrewsbury Town | 23 | 21 | 22.6 | -1.6 | 42 | 35.4 | +6.6 | -21 | -12.9 | -8.1 | 15 | 23.4 | -8.4 |
| 21 | Burton Albion | 23 | 19 | 19.8 | -0.8 | 32 | 34.1 | -2.1 | -13 | -14.3 | +1.3 | 23 | 22.2 | +0.8 |
| 22 | Northampton Town | 23 | 24 | 20.7 | +3.3 | 35 | 36.3 | -1.3 | -11 | -15.6 | +4.6 | 23 | 21.6 | +1.4 |
| 23 | Bristol Rovers | 23 | 13 | 19.6 | -6.6 | 43 | 40.1 | +2.9 | -30 | -20.5 | -9.5 | 12 | 20.1 | -8.1 |
| 24 | Exeter City | 23 | 19 | 20.4 | -1.4 | 32 | 39.3 | -7.3 | -13 | -18.8 | +5.8 | 26 | 20.0 | +6.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockport County | 5 | 12 | 9.7 | +2.3 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | +6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 |
| 2 | Birmingham City | 5 | 11 | 6.7 | +4.3 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | +9 | 4.0 | +5.0 | 15 | 9.6 | +5.4 |
| 3 | Blackpool | 5 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 | +2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 |
| 4 | Lincoln City | 5 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | +0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 5 | Crawley Town | 5 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | +4 | 1.6 | +2.4 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 |
| 6 | Wigan Athletic | 5 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | +2 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 |
| 7 | Cambridge United | 5 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 | -3 | 1.4 | -4.4 | 3 | 7.8 | -4.8 |
| 8 | Leyton Orient | 5 | 14 | 8.1 | +5.9 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | +8 | 1.2 | +6.8 | 15 | 7.6 | +7.4 |
| 9 | Wycombe Wanderers | 5 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | -4 | 0.6 | -4.6 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 |
| 10 | Mansfield Town | 5 | 11 | 8.7 | +2.3 | 14 | 8.2 | +5.8 | -3 | 0.5 | -3.5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Charlton Athletic | 5 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +5 | 0.1 | +4.9 | 12 | 6.9 | +5.1 |
| 12 | Barnsley | 5 | 13 | 8.2 | +4.8 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 | +3 | -0.2 | +3.2 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 13 | Stevenage | 5 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | -2 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 5 | 8 | 4.5 | +3.5 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | +6 | -0.1 | +6.1 | 11 | 6.7 | +4.3 |
| 15 | Reading | 5 | 9 | 4.8 | +4.2 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | +3 | -0.8 | +3.8 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| 16 | Bolton Wanderers | 5 | 5 | 7.4 | -2.4 | 12 | 8.7 | +3.3 | -7 | -1.3 | -5.7 | 2 | 6.0 | -4.0 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 5 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 6.1 | +3.9 | -7 | -1.6 | -5.4 | 1 | 5.9 | -4.9 |
| 18 | Shrewsbury Town | 5 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | -4 | -1.6 | -2.4 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 19 | Peterborough United | 5 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 9 | 8.2 | +0.8 | -3 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 |
| 20 | Burton Albion | 5 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | -2 | -1.6 | -0.4 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 |
| 21 | Rotherham United | 5 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | -2 | -2.5 | +0.5 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 22 | Huddersfield Town | 5 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | 14 | 8.3 | +5.7 | -10 | -2.9 | -7.1 | 0 | 5.2 | -5.2 |
| 23 | Northampton Town | 5 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | -1 | -2.6 | +1.6 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 |
| 24 | Exeter City | 5 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | -2 | -3.8 | +1.8 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 |
Leyton Orient overperformed their xG by more than any other side in League One in 2024/2025, with 72 goals from chances worth 56.9 xG, a gap of 15.1. Reading were next on 12.6.
Shrewsbury Town underperformed their xG by more than any other side in League One in 2024/2025, with 41 goals from chances worth 50.9 xG, a shortfall of 9.9. Rotherham United were next on 9.1.
Birmingham City were the luckiest side in League One in 2024/2025, with 111 points from performances worth 85.5 xPts, 25.5 more than their chances deserved. Wrexham were next on 24.1.
Shrewsbury Town were the unluckiest side in League One in 2024/2025, with 33 points from performances worth 52.3 xPts, 19.3 short of what they deserved. Cambridge United were next on 18.5.
Birmingham City were also top of League One in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 85.5 xPts from 72.2 xG created and 33.2 conceded across 46 matches. Wycombe Wanderers were next on 82.6.
Wycombe Wanderers created the most xG in League One in 2024/2025, 75.0 from 45 matches, 1.7 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Birmingham City were next on 72.2.
Northampton Town created the least xG in League One in 2024/2025, 41.2 from 46 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Burton Albion were next on 43.0.
Bristol Rovers conceded the most xG in League One in 2024/2025, 75.4 from 45 matches, 1.7 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Exeter City were next on 69.7.
Birmingham City conceded the least xG in League One in 2024/2025, 33.2 from 46 matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Stockport County were next on 41.1.
League One teams averaged 1.25 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 547 matches played, and scored 1.29 goals a game from it.
League One teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.35 a game against 1.15 away, a home advantage of +0.20.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham City | 46 | 84 | 72.2 | +11.8 | 31 | 33.2 | -2.2 | +53 | 39.1 | +13.9 | 111 | 85.5 | +25.5 |
| 2 | Wycombe Wanderers | 45 | 70 | 75.0 | -5.0 | 45 | 43.5 | +1.5 | +25 | 31.6 | -6.6 | 83 | 82.6 | +0.4 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 45 | 70 | 69.1 | +0.9 | 41 | 41.1 | -0.1 | +29 | 28.0 | +1.0 | 84 | 78.9 | +5.1 |
| 4 | Charlton Athletic | 46 | 67 | 60.0 | +7.0 | 43 | 44.0 | -1.0 | +24 | 16.0 | +8.0 | 85 | 73.1 | +11.9 |
| 5 | Huddersfield Town | 45 | 54 | 61.5 | -7.5 | 55 | 46.3 | +8.7 | -1 | 15.1 | -16.1 | 61 | 70.9 | -9.9 |
| 6 | Blackpool | 46 | 72 | 64.6 | +7.4 | 60 | 54.3 | +5.7 | +12 | 10.3 | +1.7 | 67 | 69.2 | -2.2 |
| 7 | Lincoln City | 45 | 62 | 56.5 | +5.5 | 56 | 45.1 | +10.9 | +6 | 11.5 | -5.5 | 58 | 68.1 | -10.1 |
| 8 | Wrexham | 45 | 66 | 60.1 | +5.9 | 33 | 51.3 | -18.3 | +33 | 8.8 | +24.2 | 91 | 66.9 | +24.1 |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 45 | 67 | 61.6 | +5.4 | 70 | 54.2 | +15.8 | -3 | 7.5 | -10.5 | 67 | 66.7 | +0.3 |
| 10 | Stevenage | 46 | 42 | 49.7 | -7.7 | 50 | 45.1 | +4.9 | -8 | 4.6 | -12.6 | 57 | 65.5 | -8.5 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 46 | 60 | 62.6 | -2.6 | 73 | 63.6 | +9.4 | -13 | -1.0 | -12.0 | 54 | 63.8 | -9.8 |
| 12 | Rotherham United | 46 | 54 | 63.1 | -9.1 | 59 | 63.1 | -4.1 | -5 | 0.1 | -5.1 | 59 | 63.3 | -4.3 |
| 13 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 72 | 56.9 | +15.1 | 48 | 57.6 | -9.6 | +24 | -0.7 | +24.7 | 78 | 62.2 | +15.8 |
| 14 | Peterborough United | 45 | 67 | 65.7 | +1.3 | 79 | 68.9 | +10.1 | -12 | -3.2 | -8.8 | 51 | 60.4 | -9.4 |
| 15 | Barnsley | 46 | 69 | 56.8 | +12.2 | 73 | 64.1 | +8.9 | -4 | -7.3 | +3.3 | 61 | 60.2 | +0.8 |
| 16 | Wigan Athletic | 46 | 40 | 46.6 | -6.6 | 42 | 47.0 | -5.0 | -2 | -0.4 | -1.6 | 56 | 60.0 | -4.0 |
| 17 | Cambridge United | 45 | 45 | 50.6 | -5.6 | 69 | 60.5 | +8.5 | -24 | -9.9 | -14.1 | 38 | 56.5 | -18.5 |
| 18 | Reading | 45 | 68 | 55.4 | +12.6 | 55 | 68.4 | -13.4 | +13 | -12.9 | +25.9 | 75 | 54.0 | +21.0 |
| 19 | Crawley Town | 46 | 57 | 50.5 | +6.5 | 83 | 68.3 | +14.7 | -26 | -17.8 | -8.2 | 46 | 52.6 | -6.6 |
| 20 | Shrewsbury Town | 46 | 41 | 50.9 | -9.9 | 79 | 68.0 | +11.0 | -38 | -17.1 | -20.9 | 33 | 52.3 | -19.3 |
| 21 | Exeter City | 46 | 49 | 46.4 | +2.6 | 65 | 69.7 | -4.7 | -16 | -23.3 | +7.3 | 56 | 48.3 | +7.7 |
| 22 | Northampton Town | 46 | 48 | 41.2 | +6.8 | 66 | 64.6 | +1.4 | -18 | -23.4 | +5.4 | 51 | 47.1 | +3.9 |
| 23 | Burton Albion | 46 | 49 | 43.0 | +6.0 | 66 | 68.2 | -2.2 | -17 | -25.2 | +8.2 | 47 | 46.5 | +0.5 |
| 24 | Bristol Rovers | 45 | 43 | 45.3 | -2.3 | 75 | 75.4 | -0.4 | -32 | -30.2 | -1.8 | 42 | 45.7 | -3.7 |