Wigan Athletic have the biggest shortfall in the League One: 4 points from chances worth 9.5 xPts, a gap of 5.5. At the other end, Bradford City have taken 16 points from an xPts figure of 10.8, 5.2 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reading | 5 | 14 | 10.7 | +3.3 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | +8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | Luton Town | 4 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | +1 | 4.3 | -3.3 | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 4 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 | +3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 |
| 4 | Peterborough United | 4 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | -2 | 2.3 | -4.3 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 |
| 5 | Sheffield Wednesday | 4 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | +4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 |
| 6 | Blackpool | 4 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | +2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 7 | Plymouth Argyle | 4 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | +2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 |
| 8 | Huddersfield Town | 3 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | +5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 |
| 9 | Bradford City | 3 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | +2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | Notts County | 3 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | +0 | 3.3 | -3.3 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 |
| 11 | Cambridge United | 4 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | +1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
| 12 | Wycombe Wanderers | 4 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 |
| 13 | Burton Albion | 5 | 10 | 4.5 | +5.5 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | +1 | -3.1 | +4.1 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| 14 | Barnsley | 4 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | -4 | -1.0 | -3.0 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 |
| 15 | Doncaster Rovers | 3 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | -1 | 1.0 | -2.0 | 2 | 4.8 | -2.8 |
| 16 | Leicester City | 3 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | -3 | 0.9 | -3.9 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 |
| 17 | Wigan Athletic | 4 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | -5 | -1.6 | -3.4 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 18 | Stevenage | 3 | 5 | 3.0 | +2.0 | 5 | 3.0 | +2.0 | +0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 19 | Oxford United | 3 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | +3 | -0.8 | +3.8 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 |
| 20 | Milton Keynes Dons | 3 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 | +0 | -0.6 | +0.6 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 |
| 21 | AFC Wimbledon | 4 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 7.3 | -7.3 | +2 | -3.4 | +5.4 | 8 | 3.5 | +4.5 |
| 22 | Mansfield Town | 3 | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | +4 | -1.3 | +5.3 | 7 | 3.4 | +3.6 |
| 23 | Leyton Orient | 5 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | 10 | 9.9 | +0.1 | -5 | -5.8 | +0.8 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 |
| 24 | Bromley | 4 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | -6 | -4.5 | -1.5 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield Town | 5 | 7 | 11.1 | -4.1 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | +2 | 6.4 | -4.4 | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 |
| 2 | Plymouth Argyle | 5 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | +3 | 0.7 | +2.3 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 |
| 3 | Milton Keynes Dons | 4 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 | -2 | 1.8 | -3.8 | 3 | 6.6 | -3.6 |
| 4 | Stockport County | 4 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | +4 | 1.0 | +3.0 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| 5 | Doncaster Rovers | 4 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | +0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 |
| 6 | Sheffield Wednesday | 3 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | +3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Stevenage | 4 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | +3 | 0.2 | +2.8 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Leicester City | 4 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +1 | -0.8 | +1.8 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
| 9 | Wycombe Wanderers | 4 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | -2 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 |
| 10 | Wigan Athletic | 3 | 2 | 5.8 | -3.8 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | -2 | 1.5 | -3.5 | 1 | 5.1 | -4.1 |
| 11 | Barnsley | 3 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | -1 | 1.2 | -2.2 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 12 | Reading | 3 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | -1 | 1.0 | -2.0 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 13 | AFC Wimbledon | 4 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 8 | 4.5 | +3.5 | -4 | -0.5 | -3.5 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 14 | Bradford City | 5 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | +1 | -2.4 | +3.4 | 10 | 4.9 | +5.1 |
| 15 | Mansfield Town | 4 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 | -7 | -1.7 | -5.3 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 |
| 16 | Cambridge United | 4 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | +1 | -2.3 | +3.3 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 17 | Luton Town | 3 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | 10 | 5.1 | +4.9 | -3 | -0.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 |
| 18 | Oxford United | 3 | 7 | 4.1 | +2.9 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | +3 | -1.8 | +4.8 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 |
| 19 | Peterborough United | 4 | 1 | 5.6 | -4.6 | 8 | 9.7 | -1.7 | -7 | -4.2 | -2.8 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 |
| 20 | Leyton Orient | 3 | 8 | 3.4 | +4.6 | 1 | 4.6 | -3.6 | +7 | -1.3 | +8.3 | 7 | 3.4 | +3.6 |
| 21 | Notts County | 4 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 | -2 | -4.1 | +2.1 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 |
| 22 | Burton Albion | 4 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | -2 | -4.3 | +2.3 | 6 | 2.9 | +3.1 |
| 23 | Blackpool | 3 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 | -2 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 24 | Bromley | 3 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | -4 | -3.8 | -0.2 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield Town | 5 | 8 | 13.6 | -5.6 | 5 | 3.6 | +1.4 | +3 | 10.0 | -7.0 | 8 | 12.3 | -4.3 |
| 2 | Reading | 5 | 9 | 9.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | +3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 5 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | +2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 9.2 | -2.2 |
| 4 | Plymouth Argyle | 5 | 12 | 9.7 | +2.3 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | +7 | 3.3 | +3.7 | 12 | 8.8 | +3.2 |
| 5 | Luton Town | 5 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 | 9 | 5.1 | +3.9 | -3 | 2.2 | -5.2 | 4 | 8.5 | -4.5 |
| 6 | Sheffield Wednesday | 5 | 11 | 10.6 | +0.4 | 4 | 7.3 | -3.3 | +7 | 3.3 | +3.7 | 11 | 8.1 | +2.9 |
| 7 | Bradford City | 5 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | +2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Leicester City | 5 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | -1 | 0.7 | -1.7 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 |
| 9 | Barnsley | 5 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | 11 | 7.8 | +3.2 | -4 | 0.6 | -4.6 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 |
| 10 | Doncaster Rovers | 5 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | +0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 5 | 7.4 | -2.4 |
| 11 | Stevenage | 5 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | +4 | 1.0 | +3.0 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 12 | Peterborough United | 5 | 2 | 7.4 | -5.4 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | -4 | 0.3 | -4.3 | 2 | 7.2 | -5.2 |
| 13 | Milton Keynes Dons | 5 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | -2 | 0.2 | -2.2 | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 |
| 14 | Notts County | 5 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | -2 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 15 | Wycombe Wanderers | 5 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | +1 | -0.8 | +1.8 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 |
| 16 | Blackpool | 5 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 | -1 | -0.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 |
| 17 | Oxford United | 5 | 11 | 6.4 | +4.6 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 | +6 | -1.5 | +7.5 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 |
| 18 | Wigan Athletic | 5 | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | -4 | -0.8 | -3.2 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 |
| 19 | AFC Wimbledon | 5 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | +0 | -1.2 | +1.2 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 |
| 20 | Mansfield Town | 5 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | -3 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| 21 | Cambridge United | 5 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 | +2 | -2.6 | +4.6 | 9 | 5.5 | +3.5 |
| 22 | Leyton Orient | 5 | 9 | 5.0 | +4.0 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | +3 | -2.9 | +5.9 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 |
| 23 | Burton Albion | 5 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 | -4 | -4.8 | +0.8 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 |
| 24 | Bromley | 5 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 17 | 12.1 | +4.9 | -11 | -7.3 | -3.7 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 |
Burton Albion are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in League One in 2026/2027, with 14 goals from chances worth 7.2 xG, a gap of 6.8. Leyton Orient are next on 5.6.
Peterborough United are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in League One in 2026/2027, with 4 goals from chances worth 12.1 xG, a shortfall of 8.1. Wigan Athletic are next on 6.1.
Bradford City are the luckiest side in League One in 2026/2027, with 16 points from performances worth 10.8 xPts, 5.2 more than their chances deserved. Burton Albion are next on 3.8.
Peterborough United and Wigan Athletic are the unluckiest sides in League One in 2026/2027, both 5.5 short of their expected points, Peterborough United 5 points from 10.5, Wigan Athletic 4 points from 9.5. Doncaster Rovers are next on 4.7.
Huddersfield Town would be top of League One in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 16.6 xPts from 17.5 xG created and 7.3 conceded across eight matches. Reading are next on 15.0.
Huddersfield Town have created the most xG in League One in 2026/2027, 17.5 from eight matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Reading are next on 15.6.
Bromley have created the least xG in League One in 2026/2027, 6.4 from seven matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Burton Albion are next on 7.2.
Blackpool have conceded the most xG in League One in 2026/2027, 14.8 from seven matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Burton Albion and Bromley are next on 14.7.
Huddersfield Town have conceded the least xG in League One in 2026/2027, 7.3 from eight matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Luton Town are next on 7.4.
League One teams have averaged 1.45 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 90 matches played, and have scored 1.44 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.33 xG a game in 2025/2026.
League One teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.53 a game against 1.38 away, a home advantage of +0.15, against +0.27 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield Town | 8 | 14 | 17.5 | -3.5 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | +7 | 10.2 | -3.2 | 15 | 16.6 | -1.6 |
| 2 | Reading | 8 | 17 | 15.6 | +1.4 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 | +7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 12 | 15.0 | -3.0 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 8 | 17 | 15.1 | +1.9 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 | +7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | 13 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 4 | Plymouth Argyle | 9 | 16 | 14.6 | +1.4 | 11 | 12.4 | -1.4 | +5 | 2.2 | +2.8 | 16 | 13.7 | +2.3 |
| 5 | Sheffield Wednesday | 7 | 13 | 15.1 | -2.1 | 6 | 8.7 | -2.7 | +7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 14 | 12.7 | +1.3 |
| 6 | Luton Town | 7 | 12 | 11.2 | +0.8 | 14 | 7.4 | +6.6 | -2 | 3.8 | -5.8 | 8 | 12.2 | -4.2 |
| 7 | Bradford City | 8 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 | +3 | 0.7 | +2.3 | 16 | 10.8 | +5.2 |
| 8 | Doncaster Rovers | 7 | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 | -1 | 1.9 | -2.9 | 6 | 10.7 | -4.7 |
| 9 | Wycombe Wanderers | 8 | 13 | 11.7 | +1.3 | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 | -3 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 10 | 10.7 | -0.7 |
| 10 | Peterborough United | 8 | 4 | 12.1 | -8.1 | 13 | 13.9 | -0.9 | -9 | -1.9 | -7.1 | 5 | 10.5 | -5.5 |
| 11 | Cambridge United | 8 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 | 11 | 12.0 | -1.0 | +2 | -1.7 | +3.7 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 |
| 12 | Milton Keynes Dons | 7 | 8 | 11.4 | -3.4 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 | -2 | 1.2 | -3.2 | 6 | 10.2 | -4.2 |
| 13 | Barnsley | 7 | 7 | 10.7 | -3.7 | 12 | 10.6 | +1.4 | -5 | 0.1 | -5.1 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 |
| 14 | Leicester City | 7 | 9 | 10.2 | -1.2 | 11 | 10.2 | +0.8 | -2 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 9 | 9.9 | -0.9 |
| 15 | Stevenage | 7 | 11 | 7.8 | +3.2 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | +3 | 0.3 | +2.7 | 9 | 9.5 | -0.5 |
| 16 | Wigan Athletic | 7 | 5 | 11.1 | -6.1 | 12 | 11.1 | +0.9 | -7 | -0.1 | -6.9 | 4 | 9.5 | -5.5 |
| 17 | Blackpool | 7 | 13 | 14.3 | -1.3 | 13 | 14.8 | -1.8 | +0 | -0.5 | +0.5 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 |
| 18 | Notts County | 7 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 | 9 | 9.5 | -0.5 | -2 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 19 | AFC Wimbledon | 8 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | 8 | 11.9 | -3.9 | -2 | -3.9 | +1.9 | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 |
| 20 | Burton Albion | 9 | 14 | 7.2 | +6.8 | 15 | 14.7 | +0.3 | -1 | -7.4 | +6.4 | 12 | 8.2 | +3.8 |
| 21 | Mansfield Town | 7 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 | 13 | 11.3 | +1.7 | -3 | -3.1 | +0.1 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 |
| 22 | Oxford United | 6 | 13 | 7.6 | +5.4 | 7 | 10.2 | -3.2 | +6 | -2.6 | +8.6 | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 |
| 23 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 13 | 7.4 | +5.6 | 11 | 14.5 | -3.5 | +2 | -7.1 | +9.1 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 |
| 24 | Bromley | 7 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | 18 | 14.7 | +3.3 | -10 | -8.3 | -1.7 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 |