Villarreal have the biggest shortfall in the La Liga: 8 points from chances worth 13.3 xPts, a gap of 5.3. At the other end, Real Betis have taken 16 points from an xPts figure of 9.7, 6.3 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Madrid | 4 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | +7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 |
| 2 | Athletic Club | 4 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | +1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 |
| 3 | FC Barcelona | 3 | 14 | 12.8 | +1.2 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | +10 | 9.5 | +0.5 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 12 | 8.4 | +3.6 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | +10 | 5.6 | +4.4 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 |
| 5 | Espanyol | 4 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 | +0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 |
| 6 | Getafe | 4 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | +2 | 0.4 | +1.6 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 |
| 7 | Sevilla | 4 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | -2 | -1.2 | -0.8 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés | 4 | 9 | 4.4 | +4.6 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | +6 | -0.3 | +6.3 | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 3 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | +0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 |
| 10 | Deportivo La Coruña | 4 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | +1 | -0.2 | +1.2 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | Celta de Vigo | 4 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | +2 | -1.3 | +3.3 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 12 | Racing Santander | 3 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | +2 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 4 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 |
| 14 | Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 | 0 | 4.3 | -4.3 | +3 | 0.1 | +2.9 | 9 | 4.5 | +4.5 |
| 15 | Valencia | 4 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | -7 | -3.5 | -3.5 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 |
| 16 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | -2 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | +2 | -0.7 | +2.7 | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 |
| 18 | Elche | 3 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | 11 | 6.6 | +4.4 | -7 | -2.0 | -5.0 | 0 | 3.4 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Levante | 2 | 7 | 4.4 | +2.6 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | +1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 20 | Málaga | 3 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 | -2 | -2.9 | +0.9 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 4 | 17 | 12.9 | +4.1 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | +14 | 9.3 | +4.7 | 12 | 9.8 | +2.2 |
| 2 | Villarreal | 4 | 7 | 9.7 | -2.7 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | +1 | 5.1 | -4.1 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 4 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | +0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 |
| 4 | Elche | 4 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | +1 | -0.3 | +1.3 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 4 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 |
| 6 | Atlético Madrid | 3 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | +2 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 3 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 10 | 4.5 | +5.5 | -6 | -0.1 | -5.9 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 |
| 8 | Espanyol | 3 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | +0 | -0.2 | +0.2 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 9 | Deportivo Alavés | 3 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | -1 | -0.4 | -0.6 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 | -7 | -3.4 | -3.6 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruña | 3 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | +1 | -0.5 | +1.5 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 | +0 | -0.4 | +0.4 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 |
| 13 | Real Sociedad | 4 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 | 9 | 8.5 | +0.5 | -2 | -3.7 | +1.7 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 |
| 14 | Sevilla | 3 | 5 | 1.9 | +3.1 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | +3 | -1.5 | +4.5 | 7 | 3.0 | +4.0 |
| 15 | Levante | 4 | 1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 | -5 | -4.8 | -0.2 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 4 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 16 | 11.2 | +4.8 | -12 | -7.0 | -5.0 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 |
| 17 | Valencia | 3 | 2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 18 | Málaga | 4 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | -7 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 |
| 19 | Athletic Club | 2 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | +0 | -1.6 | +1.6 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 |
| 20 | Getafe | 3 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | -5 | -3.4 | -1.6 | 0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 5 | 24 | 19.3 | +4.7 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | +17 | 13.4 | +3.6 | 15 | 11.6 | +3.4 |
| 2 | Villarreal | 5 | 9 | 12.2 | -3.2 | 8 | 6.1 | +1.9 | +1 | 6.1 | -5.1 | 6 | 10.2 | -4.2 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 5 | 12 | 9.9 | +2.1 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | +7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 12 | 10.2 | +1.8 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 5 | 12 | 12.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | +6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 9 | 9.7 | -0.7 |
| 5 | Athletic Club | 5 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 3 | 7.0 | -4.0 | +3 | 0.9 | +2.1 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Espanyol | 5 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | -2 | 1.3 | -3.3 | 4 | 7.9 | -3.9 |
| 7 | Celta de Vigo | 5 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | +3 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 |
| 8 | Real Betis | 5 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 | 7 | 9.4 | -2.4 | +0 | -0.5 | +0.5 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 |
| 9 | Elche | 5 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | 11 | 8.4 | +2.6 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.4 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 5 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | +0 | -1.3 | +1.3 | 10 | 6.3 | +3.7 |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruña | 5 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | +2 | -0.6 | +2.6 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 |
| 12 | Sevilla | 5 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | -2 | -2.6 | +0.6 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| 13 | Getafe | 5 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 4 | 6.7 | -2.7 | -1 | -1.4 | +0.4 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 | 13 | 9.3 | +3.7 | -4 | -2.3 | -1.7 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 15 | Levante | 5 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | 9 | 9.5 | -0.5 | -1 | -2.6 | +1.6 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 5 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 | -8 | -3.1 | -4.9 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 17 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | +2 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 |
| 18 | Málaga | 5 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | 9 | 10.0 | -1.0 | -7 | -5.6 | -1.4 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 |
| 19 | Racing Santander | 5 | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 | 18 | 13.4 | +4.6 | -9 | -7.3 | -1.7 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
| 20 | Valencia | 5 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 12 | 9.8 | +2.2 | -8 | -5.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
FC Barcelona are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in La Liga in 2026/2027, with 31 goals from chances worth 25.7 xG, a gap of 5.3. Atlético Madrid are next on 4.0.
Villarreal are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in La Liga in 2026/2027, with 13 goals from chances worth 16.3 xG, a shortfall of 3.3. Málaga are next on 3.0.
Real Betis are the luckiest side in La Liga in 2026/2027, with 16 points from performances worth 9.7 xPts, 6.3 more than their chances deserved. Sevilla are next on 4.3.
Villarreal are the unluckiest side in La Liga in 2026/2027, with 8 points from performances worth 13.3 xPts, 5.3 short of what they deserved. Espanyol are next on 4.1.
FC Barcelona would also be top of La Liga in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 17.0 xPts from 25.7 xG created and 6.9 conceded across seven matches. Real Madrid are next on 14.4.
FC Barcelona have created the most xG in La Liga in 2026/2027, 25.7 from seven matches, 3.7 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Real Madrid are next on 16.9.
Málaga have created the least xG in La Liga in 2026/2027, 6.0 from seven matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Valencia are next on 6.3.
Racing Santander have conceded the most xG in La Liga in 2026/2027, 15.4 from seven matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Rayo Vallecano are next on 13.3.
FC Barcelona have conceded the least xG in La Liga in 2026/2027, 6.9 from seven matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Atlético Madrid are next on 7.4.
La Liga teams have averaged 1.47 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 69 matches played, and have scored 1.52 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.36 xG a game in 2025/2026.
La Liga teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.57 a game against 1.37 away, a home advantage of +0.21, against +0.41 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 7 | 31 | 25.7 | +5.3 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | +24 | 18.8 | +5.2 | 21 | 17.0 | +4.0 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 7 | 18 | 16.9 | +1.1 | 8 | 8.4 | -0.4 | +10 | 8.5 | +1.5 | 15 | 14.4 | +0.6 |
| 3 | Villarreal | 7 | 13 | 16.3 | -3.3 | 12 | 9.4 | +2.6 | +1 | 7.0 | -6.0 | 8 | 13.3 | -5.3 |
| 4 | Atlético Madrid | 7 | 16 | 12.0 | +4.0 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | +9 | 4.7 | +4.3 | 16 | 12.5 | +3.5 |
| 5 | Espanyol | 7 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.0 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 | +0 | 1.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 11.1 | -4.1 |
| 6 | Athletic Club | 6 | 7 | 9.4 | -2.4 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | +1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 7 | 9 | 11.2 | -2.2 | 7 | 11.5 | -4.5 | +2 | -0.3 | +2.3 | 16 | 9.7 | +6.3 |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés | 7 | 11 | 8.0 | +3.0 | 6 | 8.6 | -2.6 | +5 | -0.6 | +5.6 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 |
| 9 | Osasuna | 7 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | 13 | 9.5 | +3.5 | -7 | -1.1 | -5.9 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 |
| 10 | Elche | 7 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 | 17 | 11.9 | +5.1 | -6 | -2.2 | -3.8 | 5 | 8.8 | -3.8 |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruña | 7 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | +2 | -0.7 | +2.7 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 |
| 12 | Sevilla | 7 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 | 9 | 10.0 | -1.0 | +1 | -2.7 | +3.7 | 13 | 8.7 | +4.3 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo | 7 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | +2 | -1.7 | +3.7 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 |
| 14 | Getafe | 7 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | 7 | 9.6 | -2.6 | -3 | -3.0 | +0.0 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | 13 | 12.1 | +0.9 | -4 | -3.7 | -0.3 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 | 16 | 13.3 | +2.7 | -5 | -4.1 | -0.9 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 7 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | 21 | 15.4 | +5.6 | -10 | -6.0 | -4.0 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 |
| 18 | Valencia | 7 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | 13 | 11.2 | +1.8 | -9 | -4.9 | -4.1 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 |
| 19 | Levante | 6 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | 12 | 11.5 | +0.5 | -4 | -4.4 | +0.4 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 | 12 | 12.9 | -0.9 | -9 | -6.9 | -2.1 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 |