Albacete have the biggest shortfall in the La Liga 2: 1 points from chances worth 9.8 xPts, a gap of 8.8. At the other end, SD Eibar have taken 21 points from an xPts figure of 11.2, 9.8 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AlmerÃa | 4 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | +7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 12 | 8.7 | +3.3 |
| 2 | Córdoba | 4 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | 8 | 3.3 | +4.7 | -2 | 4.3 | -6.3 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 |
| 3 | Sabadell | 4 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | +4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 |
| 4 | Girona | 5 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | 5 | 7.2 | -2.2 | +4 | 0.3 | +3.7 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 |
| 5 | Cádiz | 5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | +2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 |
| 6 | FC Andorra | 4 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 | 8 | 4.0 | +4.0 | -1 | 3.7 | -4.7 | 3 | 7.6 | -4.6 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijón | 5 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | -1 | 1.0 | -2.0 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 |
| 8 | SD Eibar | 4 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | 5 | 2.9 | +2.1 | +3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 9 | 7.4 | +1.6 |
| 9 | Real Oviedo | 4 | 2 | 6.1 | -4.1 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 | +1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 |
| 10 | Eldense | 4 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | +2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 |
| 11 | Castellón | 4 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 | +7 | 3.3 | +3.7 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 4 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | +2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 13 | Ceuta | 4 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | -2 | 1.4 | -3.4 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 14 | Mallorca | 4 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | 1 | 4.6 | -3.6 | +6 | 1.2 | +4.8 | 9 | 6.4 | +2.6 |
| 15 | Burgos | 4 | 9 | 5.3 | +3.7 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | +4 | -0.1 | +4.1 | 10 | 5.2 | +4.8 |
| 16 | Albacete | 4 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 | -5 | -0.3 | -4.7 | 0 | 5.2 | -5.2 |
| 17 | Granada | 3 | 5 | 4.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 | +1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 |
| 18 | Celta Fortuna | 4 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 | -3 | -1.6 | -1.4 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 19 | Leganés | 3 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | +0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 20 | Las Palmas | 4 | 5 | 3.3 | +1.7 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | +0 | -1.1 | +1.1 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 |
| 21 | Real Sociedad II | 4 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | -3 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 |
| 22 | Real Valladolid | 3 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | +0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 4 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | +5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 |
| 2 | Granada | 5 | 8 | 9.1 | -1.1 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | -1 | 1.3 | -2.3 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 |
| 3 | Real Valladolid | 5 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | -3 | 0.8 | -3.8 | 3 | 7.3 | -4.3 |
| 4 | Sabadell | 4 | 1 | 4.9 | -3.9 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | -2 | 1.8 | -3.8 | 3 | 6.8 | -3.8 |
| 5 | Las Palmas | 4 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 4 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 |
| 7 | Córdoba | 4 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | -3 | -1.6 | -1.4 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 |
| 8 | Albacete | 4 | 2 | 5.5 | -3.5 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | -5 | -2.4 | -2.6 | 1 | 4.6 | -3.6 |
| 9 | FC Andorra | 4 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | -2 | -1.6 | -0.4 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 10 | Real Oviedo | 4 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | -1 | -2.0 | +1.0 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 11 | Celta Fortuna | 4 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 | -1 | -2.1 | +1.1 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 |
| 12 | Burgos | 4 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | -1 | -1.8 | +0.8 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| 13 | Eldense | 4 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | -4 | -2.2 | -1.8 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad II | 4 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | +1 | -2.5 | +3.5 | 7 | 4.1 | +2.9 |
| 15 | SD Eibar | 4 | 10 | 3.3 | +6.7 | 2 | 5.4 | -3.4 | +8 | -2.2 | +10.2 | 12 | 3.8 | +8.2 |
| 16 | Leganés | 5 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 | -5 | -5.8 | +0.8 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 |
| 17 | Ceuta | 4 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 12 | 7.5 | +4.5 | -9 | -3.6 | -5.4 | 1 | 3.7 | -2.7 |
| 18 | AlmerÃa | 4 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 2 | 6.3 | -4.3 | +1 | -2.8 | +3.8 | 6 | 3.5 | +2.5 |
| 19 | Cádiz | 3 | 5 | 3.1 | +1.9 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | -1 | -1.6 | +0.6 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 |
| 20 | Sporting Gijón | 3 | 4 | 2.2 | +1.8 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | +1 | -1.5 | +2.5 | 6 | 2.9 | +3.1 |
| 21 | Tenerife | 4 | 6 | 2.4 | +3.6 | 10 | 6.7 | +3.3 | -4 | -4.2 | +0.2 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
| 22 | Girona | 3 | 5 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | +2 | -2.5 | +4.5 | 6 | 2.5 | +3.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 5 | 12 | 12.0 | +0.0 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 | +10 | 6.7 | +3.3 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 |
| 2 | Sabadell | 5 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 | +1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 |
| 3 | Granada | 5 | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6 | 12 | 7.6 | +4.4 | -4 | 3.0 | -7.0 | 4 | 8.3 | -4.3 |
| 4 | AlmerÃa | 5 | 10 | 8.6 | +1.4 | 3 | 6.4 | -3.4 | +7 | 2.2 | +4.8 | 15 | 8.1 | +6.9 |
| 5 | Córdoba | 5 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | 11 | 7.9 | +3.1 | -3 | 1.5 | -4.5 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 |
| 6 | Ceuta | 5 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | -2 | 1.7 | -3.7 | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 |
| 7 | Eldense | 5 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | +2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 |
| 8 | Real Valladolid | 5 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 9 | Sporting Gijón | 5 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | -2 | 0.6 | -2.6 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| 10 | SD Eibar | 5 | 15 | 6.2 | +8.8 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | +11 | 0.2 | +10.8 | 15 | 6.8 | +8.2 |
| 11 | Mallorca | 5 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | 1 | 6.2 | -5.2 | +2 | -0.1 | +2.1 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 |
| 12 | Cádiz | 5 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | +1 | -0.4 | +1.4 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 13 | Celta Fortuna | 5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | -5 | -0.8 | -4.2 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 14 | Las Palmas | 5 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 | -1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 15 | Real Oviedo | 5 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 | +0 | -1.9 | +1.9 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
| 16 | Tenerife | 5 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | -4 | -1.9 | -2.1 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 |
| 17 | Albacete | 5 | 3 | 6.8 | -3.8 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | -7 | -2.5 | -4.5 | 1 | 5.9 | -4.9 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad II | 5 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | -2 | -2.3 | +0.3 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 19 | Leganés | 5 | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 | -7 | -2.5 | -4.5 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 20 | Burgos | 5 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | +3 | -1.9 | +4.9 | 10 | 5.6 | +4.4 |
| 21 | FC Andorra | 5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | -4 | -2.4 | -1.6 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 22 | Girona | 5 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | 3 | 9.3 | -6.3 | +4 | -3.6 | +7.6 | 10 | 5.4 | +4.6 |
SD Eibar are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in La Liga 2 in 2026/2027, with 18 goals from chances worth 9.0 xG, a gap of 9.0. Las Palmas are next on 4.1.
Albacete are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in La Liga 2 in 2026/2027, with 5 goals from chances worth 10.4 xG, a shortfall of 5.4. Sabadell are next on 4.6.
SD Eibar are the luckiest side in La Liga 2 in 2026/2027, with 21 points from performances worth 11.2 xPts, 9.8 more than their chances deserved. AlmerÃa are next on 5.8.
Albacete are the unluckiest side in La Liga 2 in 2026/2027, with 1 point from performances worth 9.8 xPts, 8.8 short of what they deserved. FC Andorra and Ceuta are next on 5.1.
Castellón would be top of La Liga 2 in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 15.5 xPts from 16.1 xG created and 7.8 conceded across eight matches. Sabadell are next on 15.0.
Castellón have created the most xG in La Liga 2 in 2026/2027, 16.1 from eight matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Granada are next on 13.3.
Tenerife have created the least xG in La Liga 2 in 2026/2027, 7.0 from seven matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Las Palmas are next on 7.9.
Leganés have conceded the most xG in La Liga 2 in 2026/2027, 14.3 from eight matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Real Sociedad II are next on 13.5.
Sabadell have conceded the least xG in La Liga 2 in 2026/2027, 6.8 from eight matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Tenerife are next on 7.4.
La Liga 2 teams have averaged 1.32 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 87 matches played, and have scored 1.29 goals a game from it.
La Liga 2 teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.50 a game against 1.15 away, a home advantage of +0.35.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 8 | 15 | 16.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 7.8 | -4.8 | +12 | 8.3 | +3.7 | 20 | 15.4 | +4.6 |
| 2 | Sabadell | 8 | 8 | 12.6 | -4.6 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | +2 | 5.8 | -3.8 | 13 | 15.0 | -2.0 |
| 3 | Córdoba | 8 | 13 | 14.7 | -1.7 | 18 | 12.1 | +5.9 | -5 | 2.6 | -7.6 | 9 | 13.1 | -4.1 |
| 4 | Granada | 8 | 13 | 13.5 | -0.5 | 13 | 10.6 | +2.4 | +0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 11 | 12.3 | -1.3 |
| 5 | AlmerÃa | 8 | 13 | 12.4 | +0.6 | 5 | 9.8 | -4.8 | +8 | 2.5 | +5.5 | 18 | 12.2 | +5.8 |
| 6 | FC Andorra | 8 | 12 | 12.5 | -0.5 | 15 | 10.4 | +4.6 | -3 | 2.1 | -5.1 | 7 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 7 | Real Valladolid | 8 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 | -3 | 1.3 | -4.3 | 9 | 11.5 | -2.5 |
| 8 | Real Oviedo | 8 | 8 | 10.7 | -2.7 | 8 | 10.2 | -2.2 | +0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 11 | 11.4 | -0.4 |
| 9 | SD Eibar | 8 | 18 | 9.0 | +9.0 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | +11 | 0.6 | +10.4 | 21 | 11.2 | +9.8 |
| 10 | Mallorca | 8 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | 3 | 8.8 | -5.8 | +5 | 0.5 | +4.5 | 14 | 11.2 | +2.8 |
| 11 | Eldense | 8 | 8 | 10.5 | -2.5 | 10 | 10.4 | -0.4 | -2 | 0.1 | -2.1 | 8 | 11.1 | -3.1 |
| 12 | Cádiz | 8 | 11 | 9.9 | +1.1 | 10 | 9.9 | +0.1 | +1 | 0.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 10.8 | -3.8 |
| 13 | Sporting Gijón | 8 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 9.2 | -1.2 | +0 | -0.5 | +0.5 | 13 | 10.5 | +2.5 |
| 14 | Girona | 8 | 14 | 10.0 | +4.0 | 8 | 12.3 | -4.3 | +6 | -2.3 | +8.3 | 14 | 10.5 | +3.5 |
| 15 | Ceuta | 8 | 7 | 10.2 | -3.2 | 18 | 12.4 | +5.6 | -11 | -2.2 | -8.8 | 5 | 10.1 | -5.1 |
| 16 | Albacete | 8 | 5 | 10.4 | -5.4 | 15 | 13.0 | +2.0 | -10 | -2.7 | -7.3 | 1 | 9.8 | -8.8 |
| 17 | Tenerife | 8 | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 | 12 | 10.0 | +2.0 | -2 | -2.3 | +0.3 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 |
| 18 | Burgos | 8 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 | 9 | 10.9 | -1.9 | +3 | -1.9 | +4.9 | 14 | 9.4 | +4.6 |
| 19 | Las Palmas | 8 | 12 | 7.9 | +4.1 | 13 | 9.8 | +3.2 | -1 | -1.9 | +0.9 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 |
| 20 | Celta Fortuna | 8 | 10 | 9.6 | +0.4 | 14 | 13.3 | +0.7 | -4 | -3.7 | -0.3 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 |
| 21 | Real Sociedad II | 8 | 11 | 9.3 | +1.7 | 13 | 13.8 | -0.8 | -2 | -4.5 | +2.5 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 |
| 22 | Leganés | 8 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | 11 | 14.3 | -3.3 | -5 | -5.5 | +0.5 | 11 | 8.2 | +2.8 |