Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 14 | 9.8 | +4.2 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 | +13 | 6.2 | +6.8 | 12 | 10.8 | +1.2 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 4 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | +4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 3 | 11 | 9.3 | +1.7 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | +7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
| 4 | Flamengo | 3 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 5 | 2.1 | +2.9 | +2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
| 5 | Palmeiras | 4 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | +2 | 1.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 |
| 6 | Fluminense | 4 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | +1 | -0.2 | +1.2 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 7 | FC Bayern München | 2 | 12 | 6.2 | +5.8 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | +11 | 5.7 | +5.3 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 8 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.0 | +2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 |
| 9 | Benfica | 3 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | +4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Inter | 2 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 | -1 | 3.0 | -4.0 | 3 | 4.4 | -1.4 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 2 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | +5 | 2.3 | +2.7 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 |
| 12 | River Plate | 2 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | +2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| 13 | Atlético Madrid | 1 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | +1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 14 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 2 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | -1 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
| 15 | Juventus | 2 | 6 | 2.9 | +3.1 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 | +0 | -0.7 | +0.7 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 |
| 16 | Los Angeles FC | 2 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | -1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 17 | Al Ahly | 1 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | +0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 |
| 18 | Al Hilal | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 |
| 19 | Salzburg | 2 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | -3 | -1.6 | -1.4 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 |
| 20 | Seattle Sounders | 2 | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | -4 | -2.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
| 21 | Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | -1 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 |
| 22 | Inter Miami | 2 | 4 | 1.4 | +2.6 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | +1 | -2.4 | +3.4 | 4 | 1.2 | +2.8 |
| 23 | Boca Juniors | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | +0 | -0.6 | +0.6 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 24 | Botafogo | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | +1 | -0.9 | +1.9 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1 |
| 25 | Ulsan HD | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 26 | Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | +0 | -1.1 | +1.1 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 |
| 27 | Wydad Casablanca | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | -1 | -1.3 | +0.3 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 28 | Porto | 1 | 4 | 1.2 | +2.8 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 | +0 | -1.4 | +1.4 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 |
| 29 | Al Ain | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 5 | 1.8 | +3.2 | -5 | -1.4 | -3.6 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 30 | ES Tunis | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 3 | 1.1 | +1.9 | -3 | -1.1 | -1.9 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| 31 | Auckland City | 1 | 1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | 1 | 3.4 | -2.4 | +0 | -3.1 | +3.1 | 1 | 0.1 | +0.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea | 5 | 12 | 7.7 | +4.3 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | +7 | 2.4 | +4.6 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 |
| 2 | Al Hilal | 4 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | +0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 3 | FC Bayern München | 3 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | -1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 2 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | -1 | 1.9 | -2.9 | 1 | 3.4 | -2.4 |
| 5 | Paris Saint Germain | 2 | 2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | -1 | 0.8 | -1.8 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Al Ahly | 2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | 6 | 2.2 | +3.8 | -2 | 0.8 | -2.8 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 7 | Juventus | 2 | 5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 | +4 | 0.2 | +3.8 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| 8 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | +0 | -1.8 | +1.8 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 |
| 9 | Fluminense | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7 | +2 | -0.1 | +2.1 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | Pachuca | 2 | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 | 5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | -4 | -0.2 | -3.8 | 0 | 2.6 | -2.6 |
| 11 | Porto | 2 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
| 12 | Manchester City | 1 | 5 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | +3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 |
| 13 | Flamengo | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | +0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 |
| 14 | Atlético Madrid | 2 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | -2 | -0.8 | -1.2 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
| 15 | Real Madrid | 2 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
| 16 | Palmeiras | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 | 2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | +0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 1 | 2.2 | -1.2 |
| 17 | Al Ain | 2 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | -5 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 |
| 18 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | +0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 1 | 2.1 | -1.1 |
| 19 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 1 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | +1 | 1.0 | +0.0 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| 20 | Botafogo | 3 | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 | 2 | 6.5 | -4.5 | -1 | -4.2 | +3.2 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 21 | Seattle Sounders | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | -1 | 0.9 | -1.9 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 |
| 22 | Benfica | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | +0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 |
| 23 | Urawa Reds | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | -3 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7 |
| 24 | ES Tunis | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | -1 | -1.5 | +0.5 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
| 25 | Salzburg | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | +1 | -0.1 | +1.1 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 |
| 26 | Wydad Casablanca | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | -5 | -2.4 | -2.6 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 |
| 27 | Monterrey | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | -1 | -1.9 | +0.9 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 |
| 28 | Inter Miami | 2 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | -4 | -2.8 | -1.2 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 |
| 29 | Ulsan HD | 2 | 2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | -3 | -5.0 | +2.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| 30 | Los Angeles FC | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | -2 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 31 | Auckland City | 2 | 0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 16 | 10.0 | +6.0 | -16 | -9.8 | -6.2 | 0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
FC Bayern München overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the FIFA Club World Cup in 2025, with 16 goals from chances worth 9.1 xG, a gap of 6.9. Juventus were next on 5.7.
Inter underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the FIFA Club World Cup in 2025, with 3 goals from chances worth 6.4 xG, a shortfall of 3.4. Atlético Madrid were next on 3.2.
Chelsea were the luckiest side in the FIFA Club World Cup in 2025, with 18 points from performances worth 13.2 xPts, 4.8 more than their chances deserved. Real Madrid were next on 3.8.
Pachuca were the unluckiest side in the FIFA Club World Cup in 2025, with no points from performances worth 4.0 xPts, 4.0 short of what they deserved. Seattle Sounders were next on 3.4.
Paris Saint Germain would be top of the FIFA Club World Cup in 2025 on expected points, with 14.0 xPts from 12.3 xG created and 5.4 conceded across seven matches. Chelsea were next on 13.2.
Paris Saint Germain created the most xG in the FIFA Club World Cup in 2025, 12.3 from seven matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Manchester City were next on 11.8.
Auckland City created the least xG in the FIFA Club World Cup in 2025, 0.4 from three matches, 0.1 a game against a competition average of 1.4. ES Tunis and Ulsan HD were next on 1.6.
Auckland City conceded the most xG in the FIFA Club World Cup in 2025, 13.4 from three matches, 4.5 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Real Madrid were next on 9.3.
River Plate conceded the least xG in the FIFA Club World Cup in 2025, 1.3 from two matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Flamengo and Inter were next on 2.3.
FIFA Club World Cup teams averaged 1.44 xG a game in 2025, from the 61 matches played, and scored 1.55 goals a game from it.
FIFA Club World Cup teams created more xG at home in 2025, 1.65 a game against 1.23 away, a home advantage of +0.41.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 7 | 16 | 12.3 | +3.7 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | +12 | 7.0 | +5.0 | 15 | 14.0 | +1.0 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 7 | 17 | 11.5 | +5.5 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | +12 | 4.7 | +7.3 | 18 | 13.2 | +4.8 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 4 | 16 | 11.8 | +4.2 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 | +10 | 7.4 | +2.6 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 6 | 11 | 10.5 | +0.5 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | +3 | 1.3 | +1.7 | 13 | 9.2 | +3.8 |
| 5 | Flamengo | 4 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 2.3 | +3.7 | +2 | 5.2 | -3.2 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 |
| 6 | FC Bayern München | 5 | 16 | 9.1 | +6.9 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | +10 | 4.8 | +5.2 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 7 | Palmeiras | 5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | +2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 8 | 8.5 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 6 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | +3 | -0.2 | +3.2 | 11 | 8.0 | +3.0 |
| 9 | Al Hilal | 5 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 8.8 | -2.8 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 |
| 10 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | +2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 |
| 11 | Inter | 3 | 3 | 6.4 | -3.4 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | -1 | 4.1 | -5.1 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 |
| 12 | Benfica | 4 | 10 | 9.0 | +1.0 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | +4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| 13 | Juventus | 4 | 11 | 5.3 | +5.7 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | +4 | -0.5 | +4.5 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |
| 14 | Atlético Madrid | 3 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | -1 | 2.3 | -3.3 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 15 | Al Ahly | 3 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 | -2 | 1.5 | -3.5 | 2 | 4.8 | -2.8 |
| 16 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 3 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | +0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 17 | Boca Juniors | 3 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 5 | 3.6 | +1.4 | -1 | 1.3 | -2.3 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 |
| 18 | Pachuca | 3 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 7 | 3.6 | +3.4 | -5 | -0.1 | -4.9 | 0 | 4.0 | -4.0 |
| 19 | River Plate | 2 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | +2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 |
| 20 | Seattle Sounders | 3 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 | -5 | -1.2 | -3.8 | 0 | 3.4 | -3.4 |
| 21 | Porto | 3 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | -1 | -1.7 | +0.7 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 |
| 22 | Salzburg | 3 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | -2 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
| 23 | Botafogo | 4 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 3 | 8.5 | -5.5 | +0 | -5.1 | +5.1 | 6 | 2.9 | +3.1 |
| 24 | Al Ain | 3 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | 12 | 6.9 | +5.1 | -10 | -3.3 | -6.7 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 25 | Los Angeles FC | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | -3 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 |
| 26 | Inter Miami | 4 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 | -3 | -5.2 | +2.2 | 5 | 2.4 | +2.6 |
| 27 | ES Tunis | 3 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | -4 | -2.6 | -1.4 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 28 | Wydad Casablanca | 3 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 | -6 | -3.6 | -2.4 | 0 | 2.0 | -2.0 |
| 29 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | -1 | -2.9 | +1.9 | 2 | 1.9 | +0.1 |
| 30 | Urawa Reds | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | -3 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7 |
| 31 | Ulsan HD | 3 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | -4 | -6.0 | +2.0 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 |
| 32 | Auckland City | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | 17 | 13.4 | +3.6 | -16 | -12.9 | -3.1 | 1 | 0.1 | +0.9 |