Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
Switzerland overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the European Championship in 2024, with 5 goals from chances worth 3.2 xG, a gap of 1.8. Austria were next on 1.5.
Croatia underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the European Championship in 2024, with 3 goals from chances worth 7.7 xG, a shortfall of 4.7. France were next on 3.6.
Spain were the luckiest side in the European Championship in 2024, with 9 points from performances worth 5.4 xPts, 3.6 more than their chances deserved. Turkey were next on 2.1.
The Czech Republic were the unluckiest side in the European Championship in 2024, with 1 point from performances worth 4.8 xPts, 3.8 short of what they deserved. Croatia were next on 3.4.
Germany would be top of the European Championship in 2024 on expected points, with 7.1 xPts from 7.7 xG created and 1.8 conceded across three matches. Belgium were next on 5.8.
Germany and Croatia shared the most xG in the European Championship in 2024, both on 7.7 from three matches, 2.6 a game against a competition average of 1.4. The Czech Republic were next on 6.4.
Scotland created the least xG in the European Championship in 2024, 1.2 from three matches, 0.4 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Serbia were next on 2.7.
Georgia conceded the most xG in the European Championship in 2024, 7.7 from three matches, 2.6 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Poland were next on 6.7.
England conceded the least xG in the European Championship in 2024, 1.3 from three matches, 0.4 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Germany were next on 1.8.
European Championship teams averaged 1.41 xG a game in 2024, from the 36 matches played, and scored 1.13 goals a game from it.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 3 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 | +6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 2 | Belgium | 3 | 2 | 5.2 | -3.2 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | +1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| 3 | France | 3 | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | +1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 |
| 4 | Croatia | 3 | 3 | 7.7 | -4.7 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | -3 | 2.3 | -5.3 | 2 | 5.4 | -3.4 |
| 5 | Portugal | 3 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | +2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| 6 | England | 3 | 2 | 2.9 | -0.9 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | +1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 |
| 7 | Spain | 3 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 0 | 3.8 | -3.8 | +5 | 1.3 | +3.7 | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 |
| 8 | Czech Republic | 3 | 3 | 6.4 | -3.4 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | -2 | 1.4 | -3.4 | 1 | 4.8 | -3.8 |
| 9 | Netherlands | 3 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | +0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 10 | Denmark | 3 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | +0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 |
| 11 | Ukraine | 3 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | -2 | 0.2 | -2.2 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 12 | Austria | 3 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | +2 | -0.1 | +2.1 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 13 | Hungary | 3 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | -3 | -0.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| 14 | Turkey | 3 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | +0 | -0.3 | +0.3 | 6 | 3.9 | +2.1 |
| 15 | Switzerland | 3 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | +2 | -0.6 | +2.6 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 |
| 16 | Serbia | 3 | 1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | -1 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 |
| 17 | Italy | 3 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | +0 | -1.3 | +1.3 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| 18 | Romania | 3 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | +1 | -1.5 | +2.5 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 |
| 19 | Slovakia | 3 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | +0 | -1.4 | +1.4 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
| 20 | Georgia | 3 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 | +0 | -2.9 | +2.9 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 |
| 21 | Slovenia | 3 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 | +0 | -2.0 | +2.0 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 22 | Poland | 3 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | -3 | -2.7 | -0.3 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
| 23 | Albania | 3 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 | -2 | -2.3 | +0.3 | 1 | 2.5 | -1.5 |
| 24 | Scotland | 3 | 2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | -5 | -4.8 | -0.2 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 |