Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympiacos F.C. | 1 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | +1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Juventus | 1 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | +5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 3 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | +1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | +2 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| 5 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | +3 | 0.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 6 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | -1 | 1.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 |
| 7 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | +0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 4 | 2.2 | +1.8 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | +4 | 0.7 | +3.3 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 |
| 9 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | -2 | 0.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | -1 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
| 11 | Celtic | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 | -2 | -0.2 | -1.8 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 |
| 12 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 |
| 14 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | -3 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| 15 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | +0 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 |
| 16 | OFI | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 | +2 | -1.1 | +3.1 | 3 | 0.7 | +2.3 |
| 17 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | -3 | -1.3 | -1.7 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 18 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | +1 | -1.2 | +2.2 | 3 | 0.5 | +2.5 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | -1 | 1.2 | -2.2 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 |
| 2 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | +3 | 1.3 | +1.7 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| 3 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | -2 | 1.1 | -3.1 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| 4 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | +3 | 1.0 | +2.0 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 5 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | +0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 6 | Olympique Lyonnais | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | +1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
| 7 | Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | +1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
| 8 | Ferencvárosi | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| 9 | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | +1 | -0.2 | +1.2 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 |
| 10 | Benfica | 1 | 2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | +2 | -0.5 | +2.5 | 3 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 11 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 4 | 2.2 | +1.8 | -4 | -0.7 | -3.3 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | +1 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1 |
| 13 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | +0 | -0.6 | +0.6 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 |
| 14 | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | -3 | -0.9 | -2.1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| 15 | AZ | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | -1 | -1.4 | +0.4 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 16 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | -2 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| 17 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | -5 | -2.4 | -2.6 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 18 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | -1 | -2.7 | +1.7 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
Beşiktaş are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Europa League in 2026/2027, with 4 goals from chances worth 2.0 xG, a gap of 2.0. Juventus and Crystal Palace are next on 1.8.
TSG Hoffenheim are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Europa League in 2026/2027, with no goals from chances worth 2.2 xG, a shortfall of 2.2. Sunderland are next on 2.0.
Omonia Nicosia are the luckiest side in the Europa League in 2026/2027, with 3 points from performances worth 0.5 xPts, 2.5 more than their chances deserved. OFI are next on 2.3.
Celta de Vigo are the unluckiest side in the Europa League in 2026/2027, with no points from performances worth 2.2 xPts, 2.2 short of what they deserved. TSG Hoffenheim are next on 2.1.
Olympiacos F.C. would be top of the Europa League in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 2.7 xPts from 3.2 xG created and 0.5 conceded across one match. Juventus are next on 2.6.
Olympiacos F.C. and Juventus share the most xG in the Europa League in 2026/2027, both on 3.2 from one match, 3.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Sunderland are next on 3.0.
Dinamo Zagreb and Omonia Nicosia share the least xG in the Europa League in 2026/2027, both on 0.4 from one match, 0.4 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Jagiellonia Białystok are next on 0.5.
NEC Nijmegen and Jagiellonia Białystok have conceded the most xG in the Europa League in 2026/2027, both on 3.2 from one match, 3.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. AZ are next on 3.0.
Celta de Vigo and Hapoel Be'er Sheva have conceded the least xG in the Europa League in 2026/2027, both on 0.4 from one match, 0.4 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Olympiacos F.C. are next on 0.5.
Europa League teams have averaged 1.54 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 18 matches played, and have scored 1.31 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.40 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Europa League teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.68 a game against 1.40 away, a home advantage of +0.28, against +0.34 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympiacos F.C. | 1 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | +1 | 2.7 | -1.7 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Juventus | 1 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | +5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 3 | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | -1 | 1.2 | -2.2 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | +1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | +3 | 1.3 | +1.7 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| 6 | TSG Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | -2 | 1.1 | -3.1 | 0 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| 7 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | +2 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| 8 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | +3 | 1.0 | +2.0 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 9 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | +0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 10 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | +3 | 0.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 11 | Lillestrøm | 1 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | -1 | 1.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 |
| 12 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | +0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 4 | 2.2 | +1.8 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | +4 | 0.7 | +3.3 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 |
| 14 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | -2 | 0.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7 |
| 15 | Olympique Lyonnais | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | +1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
| 16 | Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | +1 | 0.3 | +0.7 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
| 17 | Ferencvárosi | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | -1 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 |
| 19 | Celtic | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 | -2 | -0.2 | -1.8 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 |
| 20 | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | +1 | -0.2 | +1.2 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 |
| 21 | Anderlecht | 1 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 |
| 22 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 0 | 1.1 | -1.1 |
| 23 | Benfica | 1 | 2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | +2 | -0.5 | +2.5 | 3 | 1.0 | +2.0 |
| 24 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 4 | 2.2 | +1.8 | -4 | -0.7 | -3.3 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 25 | Torreense | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | +1 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 3 | 0.9 | +2.1 |
| 26 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | +0 | -0.6 | +0.6 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 |
| 27 | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | -3 | -0.9 | -2.1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| 28 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | -3 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| 29 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | +0 | -1.0 | +1.0 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 |
| 30 | OFI | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 | +2 | -1.1 | +3.1 | 3 | 0.7 | +2.3 |
| 31 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | -3 | -1.3 | -1.7 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 32 | AZ | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | -1 | -1.4 | +0.4 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 33 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | -2 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
| 34 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | +1 | -1.2 | +2.2 | 3 | 0.5 | +2.5 |
| 35 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | -5 | -2.4 | -2.6 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 36 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | -1 | -2.7 | +1.7 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 |