Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
Venezuela overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Copa America in 2024, with 6 goals from chances worth 0.0 xG, a gap of 6.0. Uruguay were next on 3.4.
Mexico underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Copa America in 2024, with 1 goal from chances worth 5.4 xG, a shortfall of 4.4. Argentina were next on 2.8.
Venezuela were the luckiest side in the Copa America in 2024, with 9 points from performances worth 1.1 xPts, 7.9 more than their chances deserved. Costa Rica were next on 3.5.
Paraguay were the unluckiest side in the Copa America in 2024, with no points from performances worth 4.0 xPts, 4.0 short of what they deserved. Jamaica were next on 3.2.
Argentina were also top of the Copa America in 2024 on expected points, with 7.7 xPts from 7.8 xG created and 1.6 conceded across three matches. Uruguay were next on 6.7.
Argentina created the most xG in the Copa America in 2024, 7.8 from three matches, 2.6 a game against a competition average of 1.1. Brazil were next on 5.7.
Venezuela and Costa Rica shared the least xG in the Copa America in 2024, both on 0.0 from three matches, 0.0 a game against a competition average of 1.1. Bolivia were next on 0.9.
Bolivia conceded the most xG in the Copa America in 2024, 6.8 from three matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.1. Costa Rica were next on 6.1.
Mexico conceded the least xG in the Copa America in 2024, 1.1 from three matches, 0.4 a game against a competition average of 1.1. Colombia were next on 1.2.
Copa America teams averaged 1.11 xG a game in 2024, from the 24 matches played, and scored 1.10 goals a game from it.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | +5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 |
| 2 | Uruguay | 3 | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | +8 | 4.3 | +3.7 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 3 | Mexico | 3 | 1 | 5.4 | -4.4 | 1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | +0 | 4.4 | -4.4 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 |
| 4 | Brazil | 3 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 | +3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 |
| 5 | Colombia | 3 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | 2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | +4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| 6 | Ecuador | 3 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | +1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
| 7 | United States | 3 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 | +0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 8 | Paraguay | 3 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 8 | 4.0 | +4.0 | -5 | -1.3 | -3.7 | 0 | 4.0 | -4.0 |
| 9 | Panama | 3 | 6 | 3.0 | +3.0 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | +1 | -0.2 | +1.2 | 6 | 3.9 | +2.1 |
| 10 | Canada | 3 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 11 | Jamaica | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | -6 | -1.7 | -4.3 | 0 | 3.2 | -3.2 |
| 12 | Chile | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | 1 | 4.8 | -3.8 | -1 | -2.8 | +1.8 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 |
| 13 | Peru | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | -3 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Venezuela | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | +6.0 | 1 | 4.5 | -3.5 | +5 | -4.5 | +9.5 | 9 | 1.1 | +7.9 |
| 15 | Bolivia | 3 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 | -9 | -5.9 | -3.1 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 16 | Costa Rica | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | +2.0 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | -2 | -6.1 | +4.1 | 4 | 0.5 | +3.5 |