Cardiff City have the biggest shortfall in the Championship: 7 points from chances worth 14.1 xPts, a gap of 7.1. At the other end, Swansea City have taken 17 points from an xPts figure of 11.8, 5.2 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 4 | 14 | 11.6 | +2.4 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | +10 | 9.2 | +0.8 | 9 | 10.1 | -1.1 |
| 2 | Lincoln City | 4 | 3 | 9.0 | -6.0 | 6 | 3.2 | +2.8 | -3 | 5.8 | -8.8 | 2 | 9.1 | -7.1 |
| 3 | Queens Park Rangers | 4 | 4 | 9.6 | -5.6 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | +0 | 5.3 | -5.3 | 5 | 8.5 | -3.5 |
| 4 | Cardiff City | 4 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | +2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 11 | 8.9 | +2.1 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | +4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 |
| 6 | Southampton | 4 | 15 | 9.2 | +5.8 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 | +11 | 3.0 | +8.0 | 12 | 7.2 | +4.8 |
| 7 | Millwall | 4 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | +4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 |
| 8 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | +4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | West Bromwich Albion | 4 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | +3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 4 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | -2 | 1.4 | -3.4 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 11 | Swansea City | 4 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 1 | 5.0 | -4.0 | +4 | 1.3 | +2.7 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| 12 | Wrexham | 4 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | +0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Norwich City | 4 | 10 | 7.1 | +2.9 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | +2 | 0.6 | +1.4 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 |
| 14 | Preston North End | 4 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 8 | 4.5 | +3.5 | -4 | 0.5 | -4.5 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 |
| 15 | Stoke City | 4 | 8 | 3.9 | +4.1 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | +5 | 0.7 | +4.3 | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 |
| 16 | Charlton Athletic | 4 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | +2 | 0.0 | +2.0 | 8 | 5.4 | +2.6 |
| 17 | Birmingham City | 4 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | +0 | -0.2 | +0.2 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 |
| 18 | Blackburn Rovers | 4 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | +1 | -0.6 | +1.6 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 |
| 19 | Bristol City | 4 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | -1 | -1.8 | +0.8 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 20 | Burnley | 4 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | -1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 |
| 21 | Watford | 4 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | +1 | -0.8 | +1.8 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 |
| 22 | Bolton Wanderers | 4 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | +0 | -2.4 | +2.4 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 |
| 23 | Derby County | 4 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | -5 | -3.6 | -1.4 | 1 | 3.8 | -2.8 |
| 24 | Sheffield United | 4 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | -2 | -3.3 | +1.3 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham City | 4 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | +1 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 4 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | +0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 |
| 3 | Millwall | 4 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | -4 | 1.7 | -5.7 | 4 | 6.4 | -2.4 |
| 4 | Cardiff City | 4 | 3 | 7.8 | -4.8 | 7 | 6.6 | +0.4 | -4 | 1.1 | -5.1 | 1 | 6.3 | -5.3 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 4 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| 6 | Bristol City | 4 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 | +0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
| 7 | Swansea City | 4 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | +3 | 0.5 | +2.5 | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 |
| 8 | Wrexham | 4 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | -3 | -0.5 | -2.5 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| 9 | Norwich City | 4 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 | -3 | -0.5 | -2.5 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 4 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | +3 | -0.4 | +3.4 | 8 | 5.2 | +2.8 |
| 11 | Southampton | 4 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | -2 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 |
| 12 | Preston North End | 4 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | -3 | -1.7 | -1.3 | 1 | 4.9 | -3.9 |
| 13 | West Ham United | 4 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 8.8 | -1.8 | +1 | -1.7 | +2.7 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 |
| 14 | Derby County | 4 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | -2 | -3.1 | +1.1 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 15 | Sheffield United | 4 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | +0 | -1.7 | +1.7 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 |
| 16 | Burnley | 4 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | 11 | 7.9 | +3.1 | -7 | -2.5 | -4.5 | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
| 17 | Bolton Wanderers | 4 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | -4 | -2.8 | -1.2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 3 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | +1 | -0.6 | +1.6 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| 19 | Stoke City | 4 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 | -4 | -3.9 | -0.1 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 4 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 2 | 6.7 | -4.7 | +2 | -3.1 | +5.1 | 9 | 3.6 | +5.4 |
| 21 | West Bromwich Albion | 4 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 | -1 | -3.4 | +2.4 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 |
| 22 | Watford | 4 | 1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 | -4 | -4.2 | +0.2 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 |
| 23 | Blackburn Rovers | 4 | 5 | 2.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | -1 | -4.4 | +3.4 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 24 | Charlton Athletic | 4 | 4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 | -5 | -6.5 | +1.5 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 5 | 18 | 12.7 | +5.3 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 | +12 | 6.6 | +5.4 | 13 | 10.2 | +2.8 |
| 2 | Cardiff City | 5 | 5 | 10.4 | -5.4 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | -2 | 4.0 | -6.0 | 4 | 9.3 | -5.3 |
| 3 | Lincoln City | 5 | 4 | 8.0 | -4.0 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | +1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | 8 | 9.2 | -1.2 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | 10 | 9.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | +3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 |
| 5 | Bristol City | 5 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | +0 | 2.3 | -2.3 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 |
| 6 | Middlesbrough | 5 | 10 | 9.2 | +0.8 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | +2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 |
| 7 | Queens Park Rangers | 5 | 5 | 9.0 | -4.0 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | +0 | 2.5 | -2.5 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 8 | Birmingham City | 5 | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | +0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 9 | Portsmouth | 5 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | -1 | 1.6 | -2.6 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 |
| 10 | Millwall | 5 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 | 10 | 7.1 | +2.9 | -1 | 1.6 | -2.6 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 |
| 11 | Norwich City | 5 | 11 | 7.2 | +3.8 | 11 | 6.7 | +4.3 | +0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 |
| 12 | Stoke City | 5 | 10 | 5.4 | +4.6 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | +7 | 0.2 | +6.8 | 13 | 7.2 | +5.8 |
| 13 | Swansea City | 5 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 | +3 | 0.6 | +2.4 | 10 | 7.0 | +3.0 |
| 14 | Preston North End | 5 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | -3 | -0.8 | -2.2 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 |
| 15 | Southampton | 5 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 | +4 | -1.5 | +5.5 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 |
| 16 | West Bromwich Albion | 5 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 | +1 | -1.1 | +2.1 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 5 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | -2 | -1.9 | -0.1 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 |
| 18 | Derby County | 5 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 7 | 9.1 | -2.1 | -3 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 |
| 19 | Burnley | 5 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | -3 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 |
| 20 | Blackburn Rovers | 5 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | +0 | -2.8 | +2.8 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 |
| 21 | Bolton Wanderers | 5 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 | -4 | -3.6 | -0.4 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 22 | Charlton Athletic | 5 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | -6 | -3.7 | -2.3 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 |
| 23 | Watford | 5 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 9.3 | -2.3 | -4 | -3.8 | -0.2 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 24 | Sheffield United | 5 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | 9 | 9.4 | -0.4 | -2 | -4.3 | +2.3 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 |
Stoke City are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Championship in 2026/2027, with 13 goals from chances worth 8.0 xG, a gap of 5.0. Southampton are next on 4.7.
Cardiff City are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Championship in 2026/2027, with 10 goals from chances worth 16.6 xG, a shortfall of 6.6. Lincoln City are next on 5.6.
Swansea City are the luckiest side in the Championship in 2026/2027, with 17 points from performances worth 11.8 xPts, 5.2 more than their chances deserved. Charlton Athletic are next on 4.6.
Cardiff City are the unluckiest side in the Championship in 2026/2027, with 7 points from performances worth 14.1 xPts, 7.1 short of what they deserved. Preston North End are next on 6.7.
West Ham United would be top of the Championship in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 14.7 xPts from 18.7 xG created and 11.2 conceded across eight matches. Middlesbrough are next on 14.5.
West Ham United have created the most xG in the Championship in 2026/2027, 18.7 from eight matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Millwall are next on 16.8.
Charlton Athletic have created the least xG in the Championship in 2026/2027, 6.3 from eight matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Stoke City and Blackburn Rovers are next on 8.0.
Derby County have conceded the most xG in the Championship in 2026/2027, 15.9 from eight matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Bolton Wanderers are next on 14.8.
Wolverhampton Wanderers have conceded the least xG in the Championship in 2026/2027, 7.2 from seven matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Middlesbrough are next on 9.6.
Championship teams have averaged 1.48 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 95 matches played, and have scored 1.46 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.37 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Championship teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.65 a game against 1.30 away, a home advantage of +0.35, against +0.32 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham United | 8 | 22 | 18.7 | +3.3 | 11 | 11.2 | -0.2 | +11 | 7.5 | +3.5 | 15 | 14.7 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 16 | 15.4 | +0.6 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 | +4 | 5.7 | -1.7 | 15 | 14.5 | +0.5 |
| 3 | Cardiff City | 8 | 10 | 16.6 | -6.6 | 12 | 11.3 | +0.7 | -2 | 5.3 | -7.3 | 7 | 14.1 | -7.1 |
| 4 | Queens Park Rangers | 8 | 10 | 14.8 | -4.8 | 7 | 9.9 | -2.9 | +3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | 13 | 13.7 | -0.7 |
| 5 | Millwall | 8 | 15 | 16.8 | -1.8 | 15 | 11.8 | +3.2 | +0 | 5.0 | -5.0 | 11 | 13.4 | -2.4 |
| 6 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 7 | 15 | 12.6 | +2.4 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 | +5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | 14 | 13.2 | +0.8 |
| 7 | Lincoln City | 8 | 7 | 12.6 | -5.6 | 8 | 9.9 | -1.9 | -1 | 2.7 | -3.7 | 11 | 12.7 | -1.7 |
| 8 | Birmingham City | 8 | 12 | 13.2 | -1.2 | 11 | 10.9 | +0.1 | +1 | 2.3 | -1.3 | 11 | 12.6 | -1.6 |
| 9 | Southampton | 8 | 19 | 14.3 | +4.7 | 10 | 12.6 | -2.6 | +9 | 1.7 | +7.3 | 14 | 12.3 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Swansea City | 8 | 13 | 12.2 | +0.8 | 6 | 10.4 | -4.4 | +7 | 1.8 | +5.2 | 17 | 11.8 | +5.2 |
| 11 | Wrexham | 8 | 9 | 10.3 | -1.3 | 12 | 10.2 | +1.8 | -3 | 0.1 | -3.1 | 10 | 11.5 | -1.5 |
| 12 | Norwich City | 8 | 16 | 13.3 | +2.7 | 17 | 13.2 | +3.8 | -1 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 9 | 11.3 | -2.3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 8 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 | 12 | 11.7 | +0.3 | -1 | -1.4 | +0.4 | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 |
| 14 | Preston North End | 8 | 8 | 10.5 | -2.5 | 15 | 11.7 | +3.3 | -7 | -1.2 | -5.8 | 4 | 10.7 | -6.7 |
| 15 | West Bromwich Albion | 8 | 10 | 10.4 | -0.4 | 8 | 11.7 | -3.7 | +2 | -1.3 | +3.3 | 14 | 10.3 | +3.7 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 7 | 9 | 10.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | -1 | 0.8 | -1.8 | 8 | 10.2 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Stoke City | 8 | 13 | 8.0 | +5.0 | 12 | 11.2 | +0.8 | +1 | -3.1 | +4.1 | 13 | 9.3 | +3.7 |
| 18 | Burnley | 8 | 9 | 10.1 | -1.1 | 17 | 13.0 | +4.0 | -8 | -2.8 | -5.2 | 4 | 9.0 | -5.0 |
| 19 | Derby County | 8 | 7 | 9.2 | -2.2 | 14 | 15.9 | -1.9 | -7 | -6.7 | -0.3 | 5 | 8.3 | -3.3 |
| 20 | Bolton Wanderers | 8 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 | 15 | 14.8 | +0.2 | -4 | -5.2 | +1.2 | 10 | 8.1 | +1.9 |
| 21 | Watford | 8 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 | 10 | 14.0 | -4.0 | -3 | -5.0 | +2.0 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 |
| 22 | Blackburn Rovers | 8 | 12 | 8.0 | +4.0 | 12 | 13.0 | -1.0 | +0 | -5.0 | +5.0 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 |
| 23 | Sheffield United | 8 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | 11 | 13.3 | -2.3 | -2 | -5.0 | +3.0 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 |
| 24 | Charlton Athletic | 8 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 10 | 12.7 | -2.7 | -3 | -6.5 | +3.5 | 12 | 7.4 | +4.6 |